Scaly-Hedge — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.70K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.67K

Hit rate

37.7%

Resolved

181

Trades

1,011

lifetime

Volume

$109.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$108

Open exposure

$888

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 10-26 16:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 51 days

Categories

Politics

50% 12% +$17,242

Other

46% 27% -$18,637

Crypto

4% 45% -$265

Sports

0% 0% -$39

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes		+177,740	$2,217	0¢	$800	-$1,417	10-26 16:00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No		+2,527	$342	4¢	$88	-$254	10-26 02:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	7	$24.4K	24,800	24,800	+0	No	+$23,034	05-25 23:22
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	111	$12.4K	748,209	415,336	+332,872	No	-$3,952	06-30 03:08
will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	29	$6.7K	125,968	125,968	+0	No	-$1,491	08-07 16:59
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	20	$4.0K	156,595	23,405	+133,190	No	-$2,094	08-26 15:55
iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	23	$3.5K	15,147	15,147	+0	No	-$1,235	08-10 20:33
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	61	$3.4K	269,192	0	+269,192	No	-$3,399	05-31 00:04
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	41	$3.1K	78,025	78,025	+0	No	-$1,787	06-09 22:51
kharg island no longer under iranian control by june 24	56	$3.0K	315,070	0	+315,070	No	-$2,970	06-24 16:56
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	35	$3.0K	256,017	0	+256,017	No	-$2,960	09-28 08:47
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	10	$2.9K	14,295	14,295	+0	No	-$145	07-21 05:24
will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	2	$2.9K	2,263	2,263	+0	Yes	+$1,395	07-27 17:17
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	3	$2.8K	2,245	2,245	+0	No	+$292	08-04 15:18
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	4	$2.6K	2,537	2,537	+0	No	+$2,297	05-25 23:13
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	9	$2.4K	1,536	1,536	+0	Yes	-$80	07-28 22:18
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	42	$2.3K	180,470	2,730	+177,740	open	—	10-26 16:00
will wti dip to 75 in july 2026 from july 20	14	$1.8K	5,866	1,536	+4,330	No	-$1,423	07-28 22:13
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	11	$1.8K	2,686	2,686	+0	No	+$709	08-04 15:18
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$1.8K	20,000	20,000	+0	Yes	-$200	06-08 05:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	36	$1.8K	118,352	118,352	+0	No	-$564	05-29 01:13
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	14	$1.6K	6,901	6,901	+0	No	-$125	06-11 17:39
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	19	$1.5K	58,733	58,733	+0	No	-$208	07-10 21:39
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	3	$1.5K	10,371	10,371	+0	No	-$415	01-20 20:18
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	4	$1.1K	6,208	6,208	+0	No	+$463	07-08 15:50
will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 24 20260718000915874	8	$965	6,396	0	+6,396	No	-$965	07-22 21:39
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	6	$953	30,431	0	+30,431	No	-$953	06-26 05:25
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	7	$870	24,195	24,195	+0	No	-$821	01-24 04:59
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	2	$780	3,952	3,952	+0	No	-$16	06-09 20:15
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	12	$780	31,953	31,953	+0	No	-$283	07-19 02:06
trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	5	$604	52,596	52,596	+0	No	-$133	08-10 20:37
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	4	$472	12,501	0	+12,501	Yes	-$472	09-29 17:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 16:00:59	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	26,744	1¢	$220	0x1110a8…
10-26 02:42:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	900	11¢	$99	0xca46d9…
10-25 22:17:38	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	14,540	1¢	$197	0x0f205c…
10-25 21:52:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	1,627	15¢	$244	0xd7cdca…
10-23 21:53:23	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5,001	1¢	$59	0xd97d3d…
10-23 13:24:02	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	8,410	1¢	$100	0xda4049…
10-19 16:25:51	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	20,080	1¢	$195	0x3911ed…
10-16 17:50:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?	No	BUY	970	1¢	$10	0x582429…
10-15 19:32:05	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?	No	BUY	1,937	4¢	$69	0xf31df6…
10-15 19:30:28	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	SELL	11,547	1¢	$69	0x57915a…
10-14 20:02:58	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	BUY	2,183	3¢	$74	0xf5ca71…
10-14 19:58:22	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	No	BUY	2,204	5¢	$100	0xa45d2f…
10-13 19:54:46	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	7,160	3¢	$215	0x18623c…
10-12 16:27:27	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	278	2¢	$5	0x6ca132…
10-12 16:27:27	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	37,135	1¢	$488	0x3d0c43…
10-11 02:31:51	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	485	1¢	$5	0x906b21…
10-11 01:53:05	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x8578b9…
10-11 01:49:51	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	290	1¢	$3	0x8f2769…
10-11 01:30:39	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	2,600	1¢	$29	0xa5ee46…
10-11 01:27:17	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xfc6189…
10-11 01:23:54	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	475	1¢	$5	0x56a903…
10-11 01:08:26	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x9faf1a…
10-11 01:06:07	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	375	1¢	$4	0x750c90…
10-11 00:52:01	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xea17ff…
10-11 00:50:13	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	428	1¢	$5	0xcc7093…
10-11 00:46:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xa8a6bd…
10-11 00:42:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	371	1¢	$4	0x1a13e7…
10-11 00:20:09	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xb0adaa…
10-11 00:16:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	388	1¢	$4	0x8c8a10…
10-10 22:56:42	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x6143c8…
10-10 22:55:18	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	139	1¢	$2	0xf4d686…
10-10 22:25:13	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$11	0x454a6d…
10-10 22:24:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,100	1¢	$12	0x0210eb…
10-10 21:17:40	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	4,620	1¢	$51	0x4c4cf9…
10-10 15:55:46	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xf36b4e…
10-10 15:53:07	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	222	1¢	$2	0xd49360…
10-10 03:50:09	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	12,500	1¢	$150	0xd46a21…
10-09 21:46:32	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5,026	2¢	$100	0xba5923…
10-09 20:09:41	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	66	2¢	$1	0x30e36d…
10-09 19:35:19	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	113	2¢	$2	0x302962…
10-09 19:25:47	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	66	2¢	$1	0xa022f5…
10-09 18:50:32	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,500	2¢	$22	0x9463c3…
10-09 18:42:58	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	2,816	2¢	$45	0x099dd2…
10-09 18:01:53	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	8,343	1¢	$100	0xefea93…
10-09 17:34:46	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	No	SELL	701	1¢	$4	0x33e23c…
10-09 17:31:56	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,721	2¢	$30	0xb4bb32…
10-09 17:27:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	No	BUY	250	2¢	$6	0xda33ca…
10-09 17:27:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	No	BUY	451	2¢	$10	0x1bc5d2…
10-09 17:24:44	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	13,596	2¢	$236	0x7b68cc…
10-09 17:15:25	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	4,154	2¢	$66	0x785ebc…
10-09 17:13:07	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	BUY	3,150	1¢	$45	0x14c8c8…
10-04 08:31:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	SELL	1,835	4¢	$77	0xdaa565…
10-01 21:24:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	BUY	302	13¢	$38	0x4ad7c0…
10-01 21:22:44	kharg island no longer under iranian control by october 31	Yes	SELL	2,730	1¢	$38	0x3eac5c…
10-01 21:17:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	No	BUY	1,533	12¢	$190	0xdbee5e…
10-01 07:09:24	kharg island no longer under iranian control by october 31	Yes	BUY	2,730	2¢	$55	0xf1de11…
09-29 17:06:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	4,273	3¢	$147	0xffd066…
09-29 15:30:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	3,536	4¢	$146	0x934ad4…
09-28 17:07:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	1,644	4¢	$59	0x570300…
09-28 08:47:38	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	13,235	0¢	$26	0xc6289a…
09-28 08:46:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	3,048	4¢	$120	0x602a11…
09-28 08:08:54	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	10,460	0¢	$21	0xfa6363…
09-25 17:27:32	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	54,988	0¢	$220	0x4c2138…
09-25 16:41:11	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	995	0¢	$4	0xbf58c9…
09-21 17:50:15	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5,453	1¢	$33	0xf4328a…
09-18 19:27:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	4,220	1¢	$34	0xfe77ac…
09-17 21:13:06	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	14,731	1¢	$123	0x1a8260…
09-17 02:52:37	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	16,616	1¢	$196	0xc71fc5…
09-14 22:52:52	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,774	2¢	$30	0x5d30e8…
09-14 22:49:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x63fead…
09-14 22:48:46	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	2,561	2¢	$38	0x0d5ca5…
09-14 18:39:09	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	10,737	2¢	$172	0x806bed…
09-14 17:03:15	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	10,120	1¢	$149	0x24c7a0…
09-14 04:36:16	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	12,448	1¢	$181	0x5e93a3…
09-14 02:55:45	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	10,056	1¢	$131	0x5fac17…
09-14 01:17:30	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	579	1¢	$7	0xdcc024…
09-14 00:03:58	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	916	1¢	$11	0x61d602…
09-13 03:56:49	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	13,671	1¢	$192	0xd86dc7…
09-11 21:15:40	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	2,834	2¢	$50	0x30d5f6…
09-11 21:11:19	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	10,193	2¢	$163	0x24cfc8…
09-11 20:24:22	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	3,403	1¢	$51	0xe8d24a…
09-08 15:54:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	14,311	1¢	$195	0x90ec17…
09-05 17:08:42	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,610	2¢	$30	0x3bb623…
09-05 08:47:43	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5,845	2¢	$108	0x47af7b…
09-04 16:19:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	7,575	2¢	$146	0x1c2987…
09-03 17:04:12	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	2,891	2¢	$59	0x88db17…
09-01 17:59:06	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	11,216	3¢	$300	0x07d57d…
09-01 17:53:45	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	208	2¢	$5	0x8c584f…
09-01 17:51:06	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	41	2¢	$1	0xd93aca…
09-01 17:50:51	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	4,833	2¢	$116	0xffe6dd…
09-01 17:49:48	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,500	2¢	$34	0xeda5a7…
09-01 17:49:30	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	782	2¢	$18	0x4a9089…
09-01 17:48:45	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	4,416	2¢	$100	0x55a7f7…
09-01 17:47:48	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	239	2¢	$5	0x2509b9…
09-01 17:44:00	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$8	0x20fac1…
08-26 15:55:43	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	BUY	23,721	0¢	$86	0xd91a93…
08-25 22:19:25	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	BUY	2,330	1¢	$14	0xd6847c…
08-25 22:19:03	US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	SELL	350	4¢	$14	0x23570e…
08-25 20:31:43	US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	BUY	350	6¢	$21	0xe45386…
08-25 20:31:22	us x iran ceasefire continues through august 25	No	SELL	9,930	0¢	$21	0x4e2b9e…