Grouchy-Cascade — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$170

Unrealized P&L

-$39

Hit rate

65.9%

Resolved

196

Trades

636

lifetime

Volume

$5.85K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$36

1 position

First seen

2026-04-16

last 08-28 15:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Other

35% 41% -$175

Politics

32% 70% +$359

Crypto

26% 33% -$320

Sports

5% 38% +$2

Tech

1% 20% -$35

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	Yes		+550	$75	6¢	$36	-$39	06-29 23:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	37	$860	1,658	1,593	+65	Yes	+$133	06-20 13:35
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	6	$847	1,059	459	+600	No	-$204	08-28 15:25
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	5	$477	271	271	+0	Yes	+$45	07-29 18:00
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	15	$350	3,087	642	+2,445	Yes	+$129	06-21 11:28
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	2	$251	154	154	+0	Yes	+$51	06-20 21:57
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	21	$237	1,380	1,380	+0	No	+$54	07-19 22:01
iran military action against a gulf state on july 23 20260708212322948	4	$135	130	130	+0	No	+$43	07-26 03:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-20 01:55 UTC	4	$115	199	0	+199	Down	-$115	06-20 02:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	5	$99	65	64	+1	Up	+$11	04-27 07:55
will bitcoin reach 75k in june 2026	43	$79	9,245	0	+9,245	No	-$79	06-24 13:57
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	8	$79	420	220	+200	No	-$75	06-14 05:41
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	3	$78	56	56	+0	No	+$11	04-26 01:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	4	$76	57	55	+2	Up	+$17	04-26 01:25
will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	4	$75	550	0	+550	open	—	06-29 23:04
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	2	$50	45	45	+0	Yes	+$40	06-27 04:58
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	7	$49	2,000	780	+1,220	Yes	-$3	06-21 11:35
iran military action against a gulf state on july 24 20260708212322949	2	$44	30	30	+0	No	+$10	07-26 01:34
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	4	$43	42	42	+0	Yes	+$23	06-28 01:22
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	3	$43	11	47	-36	No	+$11	05-29 23:42
bitcoin up or down april 23 2026 9pm et	3	$42	125	116	+9	Up	+$49	04-24 01:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7PM ET	2	$41	45	43	+2	Up	+$1	04-25 23:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	1	$39	68	0	+68	Down	-$39	04-27 14:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	10	$37	72	53	+20	Down	+$8	04-27 07:59
will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by september 30 20260722053445710	1	$36	200	0	+200	Yes	-$36	07-23 12:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5PM ET	11	$36	56	56	+0	Down	+$4	04-24 21:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-20 02:00 UTC	5	$35	214	42	+173	Down	-$5	06-20 02:04
iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	3	$34	30	30	+0	No	+$11	07-23 12:25
iran military action against a gulf state on july 22 20260708212322947	2	$33	20	20	+0	No	+$3	07-25 08:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	9	$32	40	30	+10	Down	+$0	04-25 23:39
bitcoin up or down april 24 2026 12pm et	22	$32	244	244	+0	Down	+$0	04-24 16:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-28 15:26:06	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	800	1¢	$7	0x38a426…
08-28 15:25:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	51¢	$306	0x5ffefd…
08-28 13:06:04	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	459	70¢	$321	0x700d8c…
08-26 12:40:46	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	355	4¢	$15	0x4cfce3…
08-14 12:32:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x4a33c1…
07-29 20:01:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	319	45¢	$144	0x0c4d2b…
07-29 18:00:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	148	100¢	$148	0x9354a8…
07-28 23:34:44	Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x2ac83a…
07-28 22:25:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x086a08…
07-26 03:21:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	140	79¢	$110	0xf94dc5…
07-26 03:19:09	iran military action against a gulf state on july 23 20260708212322948	No	SELL	130	68¢	$89	0x17fcf8…
07-26 01:34:37	iran military action against a gulf state on july 24 20260708212322949	No	SELL	30	90¢	$27	0x04ec8c…
07-25 10:31:46	iran military action against a gulf state on july 24 20260708212322949	No	BUY	30	57¢	$17	0x955c79…
07-25 08:02:12	iran military action against a gulf state on july 22 20260708212322947	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x4db457…
07-24 01:15:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0x5fe96d…
07-23 21:49:48	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 25 20260723195817184	No	BUY	120	15¢	$18	0xd7e00a…
07-23 21:48:25	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 24 20260723195748423	No	BUY	30	35¢	$10	0xc8f443…
07-23 19:57:54	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 23 20260717012542203	No	SELL	13	89¢	$12	0x0ba142…
07-23 15:12:31	iran military action against a gulf state on july 23 20260708212322948	No	BUY	90	28¢	$25	0x7a1d24…
07-23 12:27:24	iran military action against a gulf state on july 23 20260708212322948	No	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x90a2ad…
07-23 12:25:40	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	No	SELL	30	75¢	$22	0x0f1f7e…
07-23 12:23:51	will benjamin netanyahu visit new york city by september 30 20260722053445710	No	BUY	200	18¢	$36	0x74d1e3…
07-23 12:21:58	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	44¢	$13	0x5e7e96…
07-23 12:21:28	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xded922…
07-23 07:32:43	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	No	BUY	232	2¢	$5	0x1dde17…
07-21 18:39:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0x9e3d8d…
07-21 18:39:46	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	18¢	$2	0xeeb2c2…
07-21 02:46:00	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	No	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0xa66eed…
07-20 21:04:09	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x325aba…
07-20 12:07:46	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x75a0ed…
07-20 12:06:51	iran military action against a gulf state on july 23 20260708212322948	No	BUY	30	61¢	$18	0x6aecf9…
07-20 12:06:28	iran military action against a gulf state on july 22 20260708212322947	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x47762c…
07-20 02:32:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0xa093fc…
07-20 02:31:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0x2082e6…
07-20 02:02:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 02:00 UTC	Down	BUY	220	1¢	$2	0x75083b…
07-20 02:01:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 02:00 UTC	Down	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x21a99a…
07-20 00:16:37	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by august 31	No	BUY	68	2¢	$1	0x2c02a8…
07-20 00:16:19	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	No	BUY	60	13¢	$8	0xbacd25…
07-19 22:25:28	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 23 20260717012542203	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xd29d17…
07-19 22:25:00	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 23 20260717012542203	No	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x155960…
07-19 22:01:49	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	73	1¢	$1	0x899530…
07-19 21:58:40	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	105	6¢	$6	0x8ec974…
07-19 21:58:39	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	87	6¢	$5	0x675666…
07-19 21:58:39	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	28	6¢	$2	0x23b153…
07-19 21:55:58	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	292	7¢	$21	0x932a9e…
07-19 21:51:16	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	585	7¢	$41	0xaf4743…
07-19 21:49:51	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x24063e…
07-19 21:48:55	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0xda8a48…
07-19 21:47:48	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	70	13¢	$9	0x3eb568…
07-19 21:43:45	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xdb8523…
07-19 21:42:58	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x0c6ed2…
07-19 21:38:24	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	40	40¢	$16	0xae148e…
07-19 21:29:19	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	80	32¢	$26	0x1532ca…
07-19 21:26:55	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xe2165d…
07-19 21:11:22	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$3	0x8966bd…
07-19 21:06:19	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	21	38¢	$8	0x84be11…
07-19 21:06:16	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0xf9e5f9…
07-19 21:06:16	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	42	38¢	$16	0xd395da…
07-19 21:06:15	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	11	38¢	$4	0xac0996…
07-19 19:53:58	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	No	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x2e03ad…
07-19 19:53:49	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	No	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x362197…
07-15 07:36:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	123	92¢	$114	0xcb8237…
07-02 15:55:41	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	40	39¢	$16	0xa26b9d…
06-30 02:52:14	Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	17	75¢	$13	0x46caa5…
06-30 02:33:13	Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x823b73…
06-29 23:04:38	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	Yes	BUY	44	10¢	$4	0x639bfb…
06-29 20:13:01	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xcaf249…
06-29 20:12:41	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x404b31…
06-29 20:12:35	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x66f3de…
06-29 02:04:52	will bitcoin reach 62500 in june 2026 from june 25	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0xb633ed…
06-28 04:30:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 04:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x335121…
06-28 04:30:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 04:30 UTC	Down	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0xc96758…
06-28 04:30:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 04:30 UTC	Down	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x051286…
06-28 04:28:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 04:30 UTC	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x297746…
06-28 04:28:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 04:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xae07b9…
06-28 04:21:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 04:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x42c9ba…
06-28 04:19:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 04:15 UTC	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xc8fda8…
06-28 04:17:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 04:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xe87205…
06-28 04:12:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 04:10 UTC	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x2622fd…
06-28 04:11:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 04:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x860d86…
06-28 03:53:20	Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	No	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x37fe4d…
06-28 03:39:07	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	SELL	476	2¢	$7	0xa32709…
06-28 03:29:28	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	SELL	97	1¢	$1	0x0f79da…
06-28 02:51:40	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	SELL	764	1¢	$6	0xe9e620…
06-28 02:40:50	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	325	0¢	$0	0x278c8a…
06-28 02:39:20	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x473358…
06-28 02:39:14	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	207	0¢	$0	0xadd845…
06-28 02:39:14	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	368	0¢	$0	0x2b71d7…
06-28 02:31:28	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x95f9c4…
06-28 02:25:23	Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	128	4¢	$5	0x3014c5…
06-28 02:17:47	Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	45	24¢	$11	0xddd621…
06-28 02:07:25	Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0xfa63c0…
06-28 02:07:17	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0x8f2e6a…
06-28 02:07:14	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	No	BUY	40	15¢	$6	0x518918…
06-28 01:22:56	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xf5218f…
06-28 01:22:34	Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	28	80¢	$22	0xc8ceac…
06-28 01:22:34	Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	11	80¢	$9	0xb358c1…
06-28 01:22:34	Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	2	80¢	$2	0x9b0372…
06-27 22:58:26	Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x2ca8b7…
06-27 14:47:07	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x2a1d43…