Cloudy-Winter — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$45

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

72.4%

Resolved

Trades

275

lifetime

Volume

$5.71K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

$2.02K

1 position

First seen

2026-05-11

last 05-31 21:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

62% 64% $-45

Other

35% — —

Politics

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 62 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (13) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No		+2,031	$2,015	99¢	$2.0K	+$1	05-31 21:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	3	$2.0K	2,031	0	+2,031	open	—	05-31 21:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	2	$538	294	294	+0	Up	+$38	05-12 00:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	2	$413	217	217	+0	open	—	05-14 14:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	2	$220	232	0	+232	open	—	05-14 13:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	3	$134	85	85	+0	Up	+$34	05-11 13:42
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	1	$100	102	0	+102	open	—	05-14 22:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	1	$80	194	0	+194	Down	$-80	05-11 21:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	2	$60	84	0	+84	Up	+$12	05-12 01:43
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$60	328	0	+328	open	—	05-16 23:32
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	2	$60	110	0	+110	open	—	05-14 22:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	1	$50	100	0	+100	Down	$-50	05-12 01:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	1	$50	62	0	+62	open	—	05-14 18:26
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$50	65	0	+65	open	—	05-15 12:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	1	$50	51	0	+51	open	—	05-14 19:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	1	$50	51	0	+51	open	—	05-14 18:39
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	1	$50	51	0	+51	open	—	05-14 21:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	1	$43	65	0	+65	Down	+$21	05-11 22:56
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	2	$42	28	28	+0	open	—	05-30 22:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	4	$41	43	43	+0	open	—	05-14 18:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	1	$40	62	0	+62	Down	$-40	05-11 21:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	1	$40	77	0	+77	Down	$-40	05-12 00:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	1	$40	87	0	+87	Up	+$47	05-11 23:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	2	$35	55	0	+55	Up	+$20	05-11 18:46
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$31	40	0	+40	open	—	05-15 12:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	2	$30	434	0	+434	Down	$-22	05-12 12:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	1	$30	30	0	+30	open	—	05-30 18:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	2	$29	36	36	+0	open	—	05-31 21:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	3	$27	38	38	+0	open	—	05-31 21:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	2	$26	44	44	+0	Up	$-24	05-12 01:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	2	$24	53	53	+0	Up	+$4	05-12 00:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-31 21:40:32	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	477	99¢	$473	0x4ba7fe…
05-31 21:40:32	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	546	99¢	$542	0x28df2d…
05-31 21:33:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x3c50c0…
05-31 21:32:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	SELL	36	25¢	$9	0xfbf1fd…
05-31 21:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0xb7bd77…
05-31 21:28:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	71	4¢	$3	0x7f9aa0…
05-31 21:26:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	71	28¢	$20	0xc1a16c…
05-31 21:24:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	SELL	11	25¢	$3	0x796a6c…
05-31 21:24:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	SELL	27	14¢	$4	0xe715a2…
05-31 21:20:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x28506f…
05-31 20:54:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	SELL	16	1¢	$0	0x1a8574…
05-31 20:51:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	16	38¢	$6	0x76498f…
05-31 20:48:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	9	65¢	$6	0x06af7e…
05-31 20:39:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x9cc550…
05-31 20:39:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0x4e3df1…
05-31 20:35:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x2ee46d…
05-31 20:34:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0x7637d1…
05-31 20:20:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x924049…
05-31 20:17:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x22afb5…
05-31 20:14:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	4	80¢	$3	0x460e7b…
05-31 20:12:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x30517b…
05-31 20:08:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x85d475…
05-31 19:51:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x3dfb33…
05-31 19:22:19	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x4584e4…
05-31 19:16:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xe755e1…
05-31 18:28:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xb160fe…
05-31 17:54:45	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xf96027…
05-31 17:53:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	SELL	3	90¢	$2	0xaac9b5…
05-31 17:52:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x452419…
05-31 17:48:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	SELL	16	77¢	$12	0xac42cd…
05-31 17:47:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x1098f7…
05-31 17:45:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xf3e04b…
05-31 17:44:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	SELL	10	28¢	$3	0xb7c34b…
05-31 17:44:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0xf4fa60…
05-31 17:11:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	SELL	7	29¢	$2	0x2a4525…
05-31 17:10:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xc489fa…
05-31 17:09:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x73e01e…
05-31 16:46:57	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0xad5eb5…
05-31 16:45:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x3a05d1…
05-31 16:43:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x21e943…
05-31 16:38:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	80¢	$6	0x2a186f…
05-31 16:31:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	85¢	$1	0x27b545…
05-31 16:18:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0x6f579d…
05-31 16:16:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	SELL	6	46¢	$3	0x3ed6c0…
05-31 16:15:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xcdfccd…
05-30 23:23:29	Solana Up or Down - May 30, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0x05045e…
05-30 23:18:59	Solana Up or Down - May 30, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xfbf8f5…
05-30 22:47:26	Solana Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0xe3b57b…
05-30 22:31:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x032697…
05-30 22:27:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xe5167a…
05-30 22:08:36	XRP Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	SELL	28	80¢	$22	0xe6ab75…
05-30 22:06:57	XRP Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	28	72¢	$20	0x8e66dd…
05-30 21:44:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xe86694…
05-30 21:19:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	18	83¢	$15	0xdbe18d…
05-30 21:05:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x6a1668…
05-30 20:36:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	SELL	8	41¢	$3	0xdeccab…
05-30 20:36:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x3f716c…
05-30 20:29:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0x183e7f…
05-30 20:25:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xc39d0e…
05-30 20:22:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x5dec8b…
05-30 19:16:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x83b663…
05-30 19:14:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xbfc17d…
05-30 19:12:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0xf3201e…
05-30 19:11:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x5091fe…
05-30 18:59:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x82d287…
05-30 18:50:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xc27ee7…
05-30 18:50:09	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,008	99¢	$1,000	0xe8d795…
05-30 17:58:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xb0804f…
05-30 17:42:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x38ee91…
05-30 17:38:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x828bca…
05-30 17:38:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x2439f8…
05-30 17:37:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x3d7d55…
05-30 17:37:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	SELL	2	32¢	$1	0xb09856…
05-30 17:36:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x5a8639…
05-30 17:31:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xa33aec…
05-30 17:25:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x8d868b…
05-30 17:20:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x41ba2e…
05-30 17:10:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	SELL	6	62¢	$4	0xaadfa9…
05-30 17:10:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x3a7da3…
05-30 17:10:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x4951b0…
05-30 17:10:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xa26bba…
05-30 17:07:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x26c28a…
05-30 17:03:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	SELL	2	14¢	$0	0x4c84d4…
05-30 17:01:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x2411cd…
05-30 16:55:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x5fbc69…
05-30 16:54:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0x7b2682…
05-30 16:53:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x092f25…
05-30 16:52:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0x68b756…
05-30 16:51:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xa1e3a7…
05-30 16:35:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xb35f8d…
05-30 16:31:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x0fd1cf…
05-30 16:28:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0xdf2c75…
05-30 16:25:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x3ae687…
05-30 16:23:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x31fa4d…
05-30 16:23:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x9c4e4b…
05-30 16:23:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	SELL	1	23¢	$0	0x429fc5…
05-30 16:20:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xf9ddaf…
05-30 16:16:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x0089d9…
05-30 16:14:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb19fb1…
05-30 16:11:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0xe32b7b…