Realized P&L
-$16
Unrealized P&L
+$2
Hit rate
82.1%
Resolved
104
Trades
168
lifetime
Volume
$534
lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$16
7 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 09-25 14:13
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 50 days
Categories
Other
60% 71% +$3
Politics
32% 61% -$13
Sports
6% 31% -$7
Pop-Culture
1% 100% +$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
5 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? No +6 $5 100¢ $6 +$1 09-19 19:15
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No +6 $4 56¢ $4 $0 09-19 20:00
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +2 $2 98¢ $2 +$0 09-21 20:56
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028? Yes +2 $1 64¢ $1 +$0 09-23 05:51
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +1 $1 86¢ $1 +$0 09-21 20:57
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +1 $1 98¢ $1 +$0 09-25 14:13
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? Yes -0 $0 29¢ $-0 +$0 06-21 06:08