Likely-Porcelain — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

58.5%

Resolved

Trades

132

lifetime

Volume

$11.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$84

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-16

last 05-14 00:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 32% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 61 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 5m 1776393300	2	$1.6K	833	831	+2	open	—	04-17 02:41
btc updown 5m 1776390900	2	$1.6K	808	807	+1	open	—	04-17 02:00
btc updown 5m 1776391500	3	$1.5K	781	779	+2	open	—	04-17 02:10
btc updown 5m 1776390600	2	$1.0K	787	752	+35	open	—	04-17 01:55
btc updown 5m 1776395100	1	$800	1,083	0	+1,083	open	—	04-17 03:09
btc updown 5m 1776390300	2	$676	351	349	+1	open	—	04-17 01:50
btc updown 5m 1776390000	2	$607	309	308	+1	open	—	04-17 01:45
btc updown 5m 1776389100	2	$599	327	324	+4	open	—	04-17 01:30
btc updown 5m 1776393600	2	$463	270	265	+5	open	—	04-17 02:45
btc updown 5m 1776393900	2	$231	135	133	+3	open	—	04-17 02:50
btc updown 5m 1776393000	2	$231	135	133	+3	open	—	04-17 02:35
btc updown 5m 1776392100	2	$210	112	111	+1	open	—	04-17 02:20
btc updown 5m 1776376500	2	$174	96	95	+1	open	—	04-16 22:00
btc updown 5m 1776372900	2	$173	95	94	+1	open	—	04-16 21:00
btc updown 5m 1776376200	2	$156	83	82	+1	open	—	04-16 21:55
btc updown 5m 1776375300	2	$119	71	70	+2	open	—	04-16 21:40
btc updown 5m 1776389400	2	$107	60	59	+1	open	—	04-17 01:35
btc updown 5m 1776468000	1	$100	192	0	+192	open	—	04-17 23:22
btc updown 5m 1776377100	2	$96	114	0	+114	open	—	04-16 22:09
btc updown 5m 1776374700	2	$93	54	53	+1	open	—	04-16 21:30
btc updown 5m 1776468600	1	$86	898	0	+898	open	—	04-17 23:35
btc updown 5m 1776374100	1	$50	217	0	+217	open	—	04-16 21:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	4	$34	70	70	+0	Up	+$26	05-11 21:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	4	$32	125	125	+0	Down	+$22	05-14 00:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	4	$25	30	30	+0	Up	+$15	05-11 21:59
btc updown 5m 1776392700	2	$23	13	13	+0	open	—	04-17 02:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	1	$18	72	0	+72	Up	$-18	05-14 00:58
btc updown 5m 1776388200	1	$16	55	0	+55	open	—	04-17 01:10
btc updown 5m 1776342600	1	$11	12	0	+12	open	—	04-16 12:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	2	$11	10	10	+0	Down	+$5	05-14 00:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-14 00:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	72	25¢	$18	0xc83ca6…
05-14 00:50:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	14	28¢	$4	0xb0de97…
05-14 00:49:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0x3d99d8…
05-14 00:47:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x6ac623…
05-14 00:44:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0xbae0e2…
05-14 00:44:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x367622…
05-14 00:28:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x9efe55…
05-14 00:28:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	74¢	$2	0x1cc7c2…
05-14 00:26:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x251e96…
05-14 00:24:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	SELL	51	26¢	$13	0xbc8331…
05-14 00:24:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	SELL	40	18¢	$7	0x693f5f…
05-14 00:24:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	SELL	35	19¢	$7	0x0742a5…
05-14 00:23:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x2f9033…
05-14 00:14:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xdddf32…
05-14 00:10:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xad6562…
05-12 01:09:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb0231e…
05-12 00:54:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	86	3¢	$3	0x552d19…
05-12 00:40:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x29576a…
05-12 00:38:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x71e531…
05-12 00:04:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	SELL	4	78¢	$3	0x25d01f…
05-12 00:03:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x48c505…
05-12 00:03:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	SELL	6	77¢	$4	0x5df26c…
05-12 00:02:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x10d2b9…
05-11 23:58:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x3763da…
05-11 23:45:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x235278…
05-11 23:42:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	SELL	6	95¢	$5	0x037208…
05-11 23:42:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	SELL	8	5¢	$0	0x74ec2d…
05-11 23:41:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xec29a2…
05-11 23:40:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x368809…
05-11 23:39:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0x73ec3a…
05-11 23:37:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xf65296…
05-11 23:33:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x535458…
05-11 23:28:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xc7c267…
05-11 23:24:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0xaf2fa5…
05-11 23:22:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	SELL	2	22¢	$0	0xda8629…
05-11 23:20:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x54cf2d…
05-11 23:19:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x3d2d1f…
05-11 23:19:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x2b7437…
05-11 23:15:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x8b4d4b…
05-11 23:15:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x267a3a…
05-11 23:14:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xfc53bd…
05-11 23:14:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	7¢	$0	0x8123d3…
05-11 23:10:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x3c3958…
05-11 23:10:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x46757d…
05-11 23:07:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0x474fe1…
05-11 23:05:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xa0e6f1…
05-11 23:05:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xeeda35…
05-11 23:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xf62a4e…
05-11 22:56:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	SELL	3	52¢	$2	0x923ae9…
05-11 22:55:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x089197…
05-11 22:55:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x1339f9…
05-11 22:48:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xad4673…
05-11 22:48:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Down	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x6c1273…
05-11 22:39:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x9cc4c3…
05-11 22:38:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x0aab6b…
05-11 22:34:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	SELL	75	1¢	$1	0x905987…
05-11 22:34:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0x926484…
05-11 22:27:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x870d66…
05-11 22:25:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	SELL	3	66¢	$2	0xd284b4…
05-11 22:25:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x4a0f1e…
05-11 22:23:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xf31f22…
05-11 22:19:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	138	2¢	$3	0xfd5400…
05-11 22:19:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x65192f…
05-11 22:15:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x598bf1…
05-11 22:14:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0x27c86b…
05-11 22:08:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	49	6¢	$3	0xce55ba…
05-11 22:03:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x015c5c…
05-11 21:59:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	SELL	27	68¢	$18	0xea35c3…
05-11 21:58:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0xdc3984…
05-11 21:56:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	61¢	$2	0x021675…
05-11 21:55:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x501bc7…
05-11 21:54:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x3accec…
05-11 21:53:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xcc5ff9…
05-11 21:50:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xd8f847…
05-11 21:49:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	SELL	67	41¢	$27	0x19dc61…
05-11 21:48:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0x4abc0f…
05-11 21:47:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0xf68f46…
05-11 21:45:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xc92d10…
05-11 21:44:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0x272311…
05-11 21:42:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x2aea72…
05-11 21:42:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	SELL	2	88¢	$2	0x84f54b…
05-11 21:40:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1da702…
05-11 21:39:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2d3ead…
05-11 21:36:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x64c155…
04-17 23:35:06	btc updown 5m 1776468600	Up	BUY	898	10¢	$86	0xfd9d67…
04-17 23:22:44	btc updown 5m 1776468000	Down	BUY	192	52¢	$100	0xc8e132…
04-17 03:09:24	btc updown 5m 1776395100	Up	BUY	1,083	74¢	$800	0xd6cae3…
04-17 02:50:20	btc updown 5m 1776393900	Down	SELL	133	99¢	$131	0x438a61…
04-17 02:49:50	btc updown 5m 1776393900	Down	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0xb46889…
04-17 02:45:20	btc updown 5m 1776393600	Down	SELL	265	99¢	$263	0xe243d5…
04-17 02:43:52	btc updown 5m 1776393600	Down	BUY	270	74¢	$200	0x8e64eb…
04-17 02:41:26	btc updown 5m 1776393300	Up	SELL	831	100¢	$830	0xfb44a5…
04-17 02:38:18	btc updown 5m 1776393300	Up	BUY	833	96¢	$800	0x56f3ae…
04-17 02:35:16	btc updown 5m 1776393000	Up	SELL	133	99¢	$131	0xd5abbe…
04-17 02:33:14	btc updown 5m 1776393000	Up	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0xd4a34d…
04-17 02:30:16	btc updown 5m 1776392700	Down	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0xaa2c43…
04-17 02:28:16	btc updown 5m 1776392700	Down	BUY	13	81¢	$11	0x712122…
04-17 02:20:42	btc updown 5m 1776392100	Down	SELL	111	99¢	$110	0xded679…
04-17 02:17:18	btc updown 5m 1776392100	Down	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0xd1bf10…
04-17 02:10:18	btc updown 5m 1776391500	Down	SELL	779	99¢	$771	0xf2f845…