Reflecting-Bicycle — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$370

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

91 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$11.5K

$14.7K lifetime

Avg / trade

$162

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-31

last 10-04 02:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Tech

64% — —

Other

30% 50% -$90

Crypto

6% 56% +$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	16	$9.5K	66,427	66,427	+0	open	—	09-13 12:43
will databricks valuation hit low 150 by july 31 20260629184745127	2	$1.1K	622	622	+0	No	+$100	07-24 01:20
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?	12	$755	1,998	1,998	+0	open	—	09-13 11:48
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31?	8	$693	713	713	+0	open	—	09-13 11:50
will databricks valuation hit high 170 by july 31 20260629184745125	4	$502	625	409	+216	Yes	-$498	07-22 18:36
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?	6	$436	312	312	+0	open	—	09-13 11:46
will databricks valuation hit high 180b by august 31 20260730183108150	4	$381	630	0	+630	Yes	+$249	08-13 00:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 08:05 UTC	4	$325	372	0	+372	Up	+$47	08-01 08:09
will databricks valuation hit high 190b by august 31 20260730183108149	2	$254	165	165	+0	Yes	+$76	08-20 12:17
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?	4	$179	1,162	1,120	+42	Yes	-$52	05-31 11:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 08:15 UTC	2	$125	134	0	+134	Down	-$125	08-01 08:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 15:30 UTC	2	$96	71	71	+0	Up	+$46	07-31 15:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 15:25 UTC	2	$56	32	32	+0	Up	+$6	07-31 15:29
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?	2	$52	4,139	4,139	+0	open	—	10-04 02:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 15:15 UTC	2	$50	69	0	+69	Down	+$19	07-31 15:19
will databricks valuation hit high 165 by july 31 20260629184745126	1	$41	82	0	+82	Yes	+$41	07-06 17:09
bitcoin up or down on august 3 2026	2	$37	45	45	+0	Up	-$13	08-03 06:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 02:10 UTC	2	$33	33	33	+0	Up	+$3	07-24 02:11
bitcoin above 68k on august 19 2026	1	$30	75	0	+75	Yes	+$45	08-19 15:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 08:10 UTC	3	$29	56	56	+0	Up	-$21	08-01 08:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 15:45 UTC	1	$25	50	0	+50	Down	+$25	07-31 15:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 15:40 UTC	1	$25	50	0	+50	Up	-$25	07-31 15:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-23 01:30 UTC	2	$15	108	0	+108	Down	-$15	07-23 01:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 01:35 UTC	1	$10	20	0	+20	Down	+$10	07-24 01:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 02:15 UTC	1	$10	20	0	+20	Down	+$10	07-24 02:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-28 12:55 UTC	1	$5	10	0	+10	Up	-$5	07-28 12:51
Will Databricks have the third highest private market valuation on June 30?	1	$3	328	0	+328	No	-$3	05-31 08:55
Will Stripe have the third highest private market valuation on June 30?	1	$3	316	0	+316	No	-$3	05-31 09:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 18:35 UTC	1	$2	3	0	+3	Down	-$2	07-22 18:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-04 02:35:44	Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	4,139	0¢	$15	0x562556…
09-13 12:43:52	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	66,427	4¢	$2,520	0xd8896c…
09-13 12:39:15	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	173	17¢	$30	0xf603ab…
09-13 12:37:25	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,033	16¢	$500	0xf99410…
09-13 12:36:31	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,358	17¢	$400	0x6941a0…
09-13 12:33:54	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8,280	17¢	$1,400	0xe7e967…
09-13 12:32:55	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6,861	15¢	$1,000	0x3a9040…
09-13 12:30:43	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8,419	12¢	$1,000	0xf6dbfd…
09-13 12:29:55	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,581	9¢	$242	0x0ecd9a…
09-13 12:29:33	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11,316	9¢	$1,000	0xb27c1b…
09-13 12:28:42	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9,453	7¢	$700	0x5019ec…
09-13 11:51:19	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	465	7¢	$32	0xf9bb20…
09-13 11:50:25	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,789	6¢	$226	0xe049a7…
09-13 11:50:06	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	713	38¢	$273	0x847112…
09-13 11:49:19	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4,629	5¢	$230	0x3c3bcc…
09-13 11:48:57	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,638	15¢	$248	0x1d6021…
09-13 11:46:46	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,177	4¢	$130	0x2506ea…
09-13 11:46:19	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	192	71¢	$137	0x6c810a…
09-13 11:44:16	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,751	3¢	$53	0xe8150a…
09-13 11:43:51	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	71	78¢	$55	0xe49332…
09-13 11:42:06	Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	4,139	1¢	$37	0x88aec8…
09-13 11:41:37	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	78¢	$39	0x05314c…
09-13 11:40:00	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	142	3¢	$4	0x27ad12…
08-30 02:03:15	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xe318ff…
08-30 02:02:13	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x3a8fd4…
08-30 02:01:31	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0xec4783…
08-28 14:43:00	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	107	56¢	$60	0x182cdd…
08-27 13:33:54	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	186	21¢	$39	0x406b36…
08-27 13:26:19	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	155	20¢	$31	0xf55b8a…
08-25 03:16:37	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	253	79¢	$200	0x781e66…
08-25 03:13:24	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	75	20¢	$15	0x57768b…
08-25 03:13:03	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	16¢	$32	0xf7211c…
08-20 12:17:57	will databricks valuation hit high 190b by august 31 20260730183108149	Yes	SELL	165	100¢	$165	0x45291c…
08-19 15:32:16	bitcoin above 68k on august 19 2026	Yes	BUY	75	40¢	$30	0xc52c2f…
08-16 16:29:52	will databricks valuation hit high 250b by december 31	Yes	BUY	182	22¢	$40	0x4d2ec5…
08-16 10:43:19	will databricks valuation hit high 250b by december 31	Yes	BUY	166	30¢	$50	0x62d7b3…
08-14 01:28:27	will databricks valuation hit high 250b by december 31	Yes	BUY	457	22¢	$100	0x17dca3…
08-14 01:26:24	will databricks valuation hit high 225b by december 31	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xd270eb…
08-14 01:26:04	will databricks valuation hit high 225b by december 31	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x8f188c…
08-14 01:25:49	will databricks valuation hit high 225b by december 31	Yes	BUY	110	36¢	$40	0x43c26d…
08-13 00:19:31	will databricks valuation hit high 180b by august 31 20260730183108150	Yes	BUY	35	46¢	$16	0x1b6d0c…
08-13 00:19:06	will databricks valuation hit high 250b by december 31	Yes	SELL	72	22¢	$16	0xc79cab…
08-13 00:16:03	will databricks valuation hit high 180b by august 31 20260730183108150	Yes	BUY	33	46¢	$15	0x534d82…
08-13 00:15:16	will databricks valuation hit high 180b by august 31 20260730183108150	Yes	BUY	109	46¢	$50	0x8d5875…
08-13 00:14:37	will databricks valuation hit high 250b by december 31	Yes	SELL	288	24¢	$69	0x390618…
08-08 10:55:43	will databricks valuation hit high 190b by august 31 20260730183108149	Yes	BUY	165	54¢	$89	0x3c618d…
08-07 10:17:39	will databricks valuation hit high 200b by december 31	Yes	BUY	173	58¢	$100	0x5d57e2…
08-05 02:50:21	will databricks valuation hit high 225b by december 31	Yes	BUY	58	23¢	$13	0x699253…
08-03 06:44:51	bitcoin up or down on august 3 2026	Up	SELL	45	26¢	$12	0x469aec…
08-03 01:19:15	bitcoin up or down on august 3 2026	Up	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x50e3c8…
08-02 18:43:29	will databricks valuation hit high 180b by august 31 20260730183108150	Yes	BUY	454	66¢	$300	0x8d3c25…
08-01 08:19:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 08:15 UTC	Up	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x67c932…
08-01 08:19:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 08:15 UTC	Up	BUY	29	87¢	$25	0x4673b6…
08-01 08:13:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 08:10 UTC	Down	SELL	49	8¢	$4	0xd85094…
08-01 08:12:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 08:10 UTC	Down	SELL	7	9¢	$1	0x5e874c…
08-01 08:11:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 08:10 UTC	Down	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0x3dd3df…
08-01 08:09:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 08:05 UTC	Up	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x23d894…
08-01 08:09:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 08:05 UTC	Up	BUY	113	88¢	$100	0xbebd01…
08-01 08:09:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 08:05 UTC	Up	BUY	113	88¢	$100	0x9aa0c9…
08-01 08:08:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 08:05 UTC	Up	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0xd94940…
07-31 15:41:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x2594ff…
07-31 15:38:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 15:40 UTC	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xaa5c38…
07-31 15:35:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	SELL	71	99¢	$71	0xec15dd…
07-31 15:32:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 15:30 UTC	Up	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0x4c513e…
07-31 15:29:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 15:25 UTC	Up	SELL	32	98¢	$31	0xe00085…
07-31 15:28:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 15:25 UTC	Up	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0x1f836a…
07-31 15:19:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0xc10a6e…
07-31 15:19:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0xccc0a0…
07-28 12:51:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-28 12:55 UTC	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xd5fe11…
07-24 09:29:16	will databricks valuation hit high 250b by december 31	Yes	BUY	150	34¢	$51	0xca85c9…
07-24 02:12:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 02:15 UTC	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x5dadee…
07-24 02:11:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 02:10 UTC	Down	SELL	33	53¢	$18	0x6f9da3…
07-24 02:10:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 02:10 UTC	Down	BUY	33	45¢	$15	0x86b151…
07-24 01:27:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-24 01:35 UTC	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xba2d90…
07-24 01:20:43	will databricks valuation hit low 150 by july 31 20260629184745127	No	SELL	622	96¢	$595	0xe5da24…
07-23 02:04:33	will databricks valuation hit high 250b by december 31	Yes	BUY	427	15¢	$64	0x39cd84…
07-23 01:32:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-23 01:30 UTC	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xb901cf…
07-23 01:31:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-23 01:30 UTC	Up	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x5d86f2…
07-22 18:39:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 18:35 UTC	Up	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xcc0cb9…
07-22 18:36:57	will databricks valuation hit high 170 by july 31 20260629184745125	No	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0x9967e9…
07-22 18:36:03	will databricks valuation hit high 170 by july 31 20260629184745125	No	SELL	83	0¢	$0	0x284eb8…
07-22 18:35:46	will databricks valuation hit high 170 by july 31 20260629184745125	No	SELL	319	0¢	$2	0xd1e771…
07-08 13:03:59	will databricks valuation hit high 170 by july 31 20260629184745125	No	BUY	625	80¢	$500	0x5b283b…
07-08 12:58:40	will databricks valuation hit low 150 by july 31 20260629184745127	No	BUY	622	80¢	$496	0x230b5a…
07-06 17:09:52	will databricks valuation hit high 165 by july 31 20260629184745126	Yes	BUY	82	50¢	$41	0xab90bc…
05-31 11:15:58	Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	97¢	$41	0x7be75d…
05-31 11:15:30	Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,120	4¢	$42	0xa41cfb…
05-31 11:10:18	Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	49	8¢	$4	0x8240ed…
05-31 09:00:10	Will Stripe have the third highest private market valuation on June 30?	Yes	BUY	316	1¢	$3	0xebb71b…
05-31 08:55:51	Will Databricks have the third highest private market valuation on June 30?	Yes	BUY	328	1¢	$3	0xc42d47…
05-31 08:23:49	Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,071	9¢	$92	0x075385…