Limping-Observatory — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$985

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

78.7%

Resolved

Trades

199

lifetime

Volume

$36.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$183

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-21

last 10-17 04:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Crypto

44% 94% +$40

Politics

27% 100% +$8

Other

23% 77% -$38

Sports

6% 70% +$970

Tech

1% 100% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No		+0	-$1	100¢	$0	+$1	05-08 10:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	10	$2.7K	1,365	1,365	+0	open	—	05-08 10:19
will silver si hit high 150 by end of march	13	$2.6K	1,800	793	+1,007	No	+$3	03-24 11:30
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$2.4K	1,210	1,210	+0	open	—	06-13 19:20
will ethereum reach 4400 in february 2026	2	$2.3K	1,155	1,155	+0	No	+$0	02-13 14:05
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May?	1	$2.2K	2,200	0	+2,200	No	+$2	05-25 02:35
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	4	$2.2K	1,109	1,109	+0	open	—	06-19 23:32
will solana reach 150 in july 2026	1	$2.0K	2,031	0	+2,031	No	+$16	07-05 22:24
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?	6	$2.0K	1,013	1,013	+0	open	—	05-11 02:24
will xrp reach 3 in february 2026	1	$1.4K	1,404	0	+1,404	No	+$3	02-24 14:07
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$1.4K	0	2,828	-2,828	No	-$14	02-18 11:23
atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	51	$1.4K	2,397	2,397	+0	Beibit Zhukayev	-$8	04-13 06:41
will ethereum dip to 1400 in january 2026 585	1	$1.3K	1,312	0	+1,312	No	+$3	01-21 10:25
will ethereum reach 4000 in march 2026	1	$1.3K	1,300	0	+1,300	No	+$3	03-24 11:30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	1	$1.2K	1,212	0	+1,212	No	+$2	04-28 02:38
will solana dip to 20 in february 2026	3	$1.1K	537	537	+0	No	+$1	02-03 04:07
will solana reach 150 in june 2026	5	$1.0K	1,007	0	+1,007	No	+$2	06-21 03:58
Will Solana reach $160 in April?	1	$1.0K	1,009	0	+1,009	No	+$5	04-20 06:15
will solana reach 200 in february 2026	6	$990	499	499	+1	No	+$1	02-02 15:11
nba min lac 2026 03 11	1	$775	1,410	0	+1,410	Clippers	+$635	03-11 14:39
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	8	$604	324	324	+0	No	+$1	02-18 18:48
nba lac gsw 2026 03 02	1	$535	1,010	0	+1,010	Clippers	+$475	03-02 03:56
will xrp reach 3 in july 2026	1	$442	444	0	+444	No	+$2	07-16 04:25
will xrp reach 4 in february 2026	2	$424	213	213	+0	No	+$0	02-05 15:20
will bitcoin reach 100k in june 2026	1	$314	315	0	+315	No	+$1	06-17 01:44
wta koeverm montgom 2026 04 15	2	$234	244	244	+0	Robin Montgomery	+$0	04-15 05:47
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 200 219	2	$224	112	112	+0	No	+$0	02-09 02:08
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?	2	$204	102	102	+0	No	$0	02-05 10:24
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$187	95	95	+0	open	—	09-30 01:39
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	5	$179	153	92	+61	Yes	+$2	03-24 11:29
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?	4	$119	61	61	+0	No	+$0	02-10 19:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-17 04:22:48	Will Solana reach $200 in October?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xa84fb0…
10-17 04:22:45	Will Solana reach $190 in October?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xf7101a…
09-30 01:40:06	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xb5359a…
09-30 01:39:36	Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	95	98¢	$93	0x8b50ca…
08-03 03:50:09	Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	95	99¢	$94	0x2fc5e5…
07-28 10:17:43	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xab9e8f…
07-28 10:17:10	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	16	89¢	$14	0xb8f7b4…
07-16 04:25:07	will xrp reach 3 in july 2026	No	BUY	444	99¢	$442	0xa274b9…
07-16 04:20:59	Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x3abfba…
07-05 22:24:31	will solana reach 150 in july 2026	No	BUY	2,031	99¢	$2,015	0xbe7c17…
07-05 03:12:55	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	16	93¢	$14	0x196f68…
07-05 03:10:16	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xf56e28…
06-21 03:58:44	will solana reach 150 in june 2026	No	BUY	546	100¢	$544	0xf3721f…
06-19 23:32:10	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	680	99¢	$670	0x0b0c8b…
06-19 22:05:34	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	268	98¢	$264	0x2ce5d4…
06-19 22:03:22	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	161	98¢	$158	0x2d1181…
06-19 03:33:52	will solana reach 150 in june 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8d8f3a…
06-18 07:47:23	will solana reach 150 in june 2026	No	BUY	160	100¢	$160	0x82f811…
06-17 04:38:40	will solana reach 150 in june 2026	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xde8012…
06-17 04:10:47	will solana reach 150 in june 2026	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x644af3…
06-17 01:44:59	will bitcoin reach 100k in june 2026	No	BUY	315	100¢	$314	0xbc8a9e…
06-17 01:44:11	Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1,109	98¢	$1,091	0xdcb0ad…
06-13 19:20:07	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1,210	99¢	$1,195	0xa19300…
06-10 23:57:01	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	86¢	$14	0x98071b…
06-10 09:32:21	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4f6aa1…
06-10 09:26:09	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3b83bb…
06-10 09:04:49	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x18b1a0…
06-10 08:58:33	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3e9fe6…
06-10 08:56:04	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc23a19…
06-10 08:49:36	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x49564e…
06-10 07:43:18	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x6bd727…
06-10 06:56:43	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x3bd262…
06-08 08:43:49	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x9a6333…
06-08 08:42:54	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1,210	99¢	$1,194	0xdbe89e…
05-25 02:36:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x820a45…
05-25 02:35:38	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $650 in May?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x537a12…
05-25 02:35:15	Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May?	No	BUY	2,200	100¢	$2,198	0x8996e7…
05-25 02:34:42	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	No	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0xf7de48…
05-11 02:24:00	Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0xc19b04…
05-11 02:23:46	Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	150	99¢	$149	0x5fbc0b…
05-11 02:23:14	Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	600	99¢	$595	0x7f7279…
05-11 02:23:07	Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x34e61a…
05-11 02:22:55	Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	224	99¢	$222	0x47db87…
05-08 10:19:42	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	62	99¢	$62	0xd0df06…
05-08 07:29:11	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xd7ac2b…
05-08 03:33:22	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1,012	99¢	$1,000	0x8b6726…
05-08 01:14:01	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	60	99¢	$59	0x125dd4…
05-08 00:21:03	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	60	99¢	$59	0xc6a1c9…
05-07 21:56:02	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	60	99¢	$59	0x49e210…
05-07 21:34:23	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x1031ee…
05-07 21:33:54	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	53	99¢	$52	0x34420f…
05-07 21:33:41	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0x0e9782…
05-06 12:55:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	53	99¢	$52	0x976a31…
05-06 12:53:38	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1,365	99¢	$1,347	0x59edb8…
05-06 12:52:12	Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	1,013	99¢	$1,004	0x7fcc47…
05-06 12:51:08	Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0xd8d09b…
04-28 02:38:32	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x938ff4…
04-28 02:38:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	BUY	1,212	100¢	$1,210	0x9a97fc…
04-27 01:44:18	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd2e346…
04-24 03:19:58	Will MrBeast hit 119 billion views by April 30?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xc0e669…
04-20 06:15:42	Will Solana reach $160 in April?	No	BUY	1,009	100¢	$1,004	0x56af06…
04-15 20:59:30	Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April?	No	BUY	54	99¢	$53	0x08a61b…
04-15 14:20:48	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x624ef0…
04-15 14:19:40	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0xd7955c…
04-15 05:47:36	wta koeverm montgom 2026 04 15	Robin Montgomery	SELL	244	48¢	$117	0x25659a…
04-15 05:36:52	wta koeverm montgom 2026 04 15	Robin Montgomery	BUY	244	48¢	$117	0xebe500…
04-13 06:41:47	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	SELL	5	29¢	$1	0x22cae5…
04-13 06:41:45	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	SELL	112	29¢	$33	0x70755f…
04-13 06:41:45	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	SELL	112	29¢	$33	0x098d9d…
04-13 06:41:41	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	SELL	5	29¢	$1	0xd90f57…
04-13 06:41:41	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	SELL	204	29¢	$59	0xb475d4…
04-13 06:41:41	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	SELL	180	29¢	$52	0x9bd359…
04-13 06:41:41	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	SELL	5	29¢	$1	0x024779…
04-13 06:38:03	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	623	29¢	$181	0x1b56c5…
04-13 06:37:13	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	SELL	1,774	29¢	$507	0x690d9d…
04-13 06:34:39	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	11	29¢	$3	0x732594…
04-13 06:33:41	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0xf54af1…
04-13 06:33:39	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	8	29¢	$2	0xc793a9…
04-13 06:33:39	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	8	29¢	$2	0x34e4d4…
04-13 06:33:09	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	2	29¢	$1	0x843c93…
04-13 06:33:01	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xd494d2…
04-13 06:32:51	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	54	29¢	$16	0x9a59b9…
04-13 06:32:51	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	4	29¢	$1	0x6b241c…
04-13 06:32:49	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	54	29¢	$16	0xfb4052…
04-13 06:32:49	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	54	29¢	$16	0xf26e07…
04-13 06:32:49	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	54	29¢	$16	0xe6a7b8…
04-13 06:32:49	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	54	29¢	$16	0xdcad0d…
04-13 06:32:49	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	54	29¢	$16	0xdb3810…
04-13 06:32:49	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	163	29¢	$47	0xd75fa7…
04-13 06:32:49	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	54	29¢	$16	0xcace04…
04-13 06:32:49	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	54	29¢	$16	0xc398e6…
04-13 06:32:49	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	35	29¢	$10	0x8b095f…
04-13 06:32:49	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	54	29¢	$16	0x70ab99…
04-13 06:32:49	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	54	29¢	$16	0x5c302a…
04-13 06:32:49	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	54	29¢	$16	0x486921…
04-13 06:32:49	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	54	29¢	$16	0x44a4b7…
04-13 06:32:49	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	28	29¢	$8	0x42c35e…
04-13 06:32:49	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	54	29¢	$16	0x2ed52f…
04-13 06:32:49	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	2	29¢	$0	0x2bdd1c…
04-13 06:32:49	atp park zhukaye 2026 04 12	Ui-Sung Park	BUY	54	29¢	$16	0x1a222f…