Organic-Tract — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$359

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

76.8%

Resolved

349

Trades

1,255

lifetime

Volume

$31.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$25

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-25

last 08-25 19:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 57 days

Categories

Other

54% 43% -$272

Tech

37% 60% +$1,160

Politics

4% 57% -$362

Sports

2% 40% -$34

Crypto

2% 31% -$134

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	36	$6.8K	4,219	4,219	+0	Yes	+$826	06-24 22:55
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	10	$3.4K	2,095	2,095	+0	Yes	+$330	05-17 12:25
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	15	$1.2K	671	671	+0	Yes	+$24	06-28 02:31
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	17	$967	1,007	1,007	+0	No	+$3	05-23 01:56
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	12	$711	857	857	+0	No	-$10	05-22 12:20
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	18	$619	1,672	1,672	+0	No	-$29	07-12 20:57
us x iran ceasefire continues through august 25	2	$581	299	299	+0	Yes	+$15	08-25 18:27
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	8	$531	301	301	+0	Yes	+$7	06-26 20:18
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	12	$509	362	348	+14	Yes	+$25	05-23 18:07
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 7?	15	$469	343	343	+0	Yes	-$71	07-07 21:33
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	7	$457	268	268	+0	Yes	-$5	06-25 17:49
fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	4	$406	245	244	+0	Paraguay	+$6	06-29 23:33
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	3	$378	407	0	+407	No	-$378	08-25 19:03
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 5?	4	$351	198	198	+0	Yes	+$11	07-06 04:04
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire?	5	$337	174	174	+0	No	+$3	06-20 20:29
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	3	$333	192	192	+0	Yes	+$16	06-25 20:17
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 9?	12	$308	236	236	+0	Yes	+$40	07-10 00:03
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	8	$299	187	187	+0	Yes	+$19	06-27 02:02
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	11	$289	1,355	239	+1,116	No	-$62	06-29 22:33
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 6?	5	$285	155	155	+0	Yes	+$25	07-07 00:32
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 10?	9	$266	158	158	+0	Yes	-$1	07-11 00:18
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	7	$251	186	186	+0	Yes	+$1	07-31 20:16
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	2	$245	134	134	+0	No	+$17	07-01 00:09
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	7	$236	197	131	+66	No	-$2	07-03 22:50
Argentina leading at halftime?	6	$223	142	142	+0	Yes	+$7	06-22 17:46
New Zealand leading at halftime?	2	$212	114	114	+0	Yes	+$12	06-22 01:48
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	6	$211	129	129	+0	Yes	+$13	06-26 20:11
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 8?	13	$203	114	114	+0	Yes	+$19	07-08 23:48
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	2	$201	101	101	+0	Yes	+$1	06-30 22:33
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	2	$197	116	116	+0	Yes	-$3	06-30 22:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-25 19:03:16	US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0xbfc226…
08-25 18:56:40	US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	BUY	305	95¢	$290	0x94e3f0…
08-25 18:27:09	us x iran ceasefire continues through august 25	Yes	SELL	299	100¢	$298	0xd16c1b…
08-22 01:07:01	us x iran ceasefire continues through august 25	Yes	BUY	299	95¢	$283	0x7f59c9…
08-22 00:48:19	us x iran ceasefire continues through august 31	Yes	BUY	93	86¢	$80	0xd5f359…
08-21 20:41:28	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on August 21?	Yes	BUY	15	80¢	$12	0xbb0510…
08-21 20:40:12	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	97	96¢	$92	0x141a3e…
07-31 20:19:59	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	97	76¢	$73	0x42ec15…
07-31 20:16:51	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	74	100¢	$74	0x67d4db…
07-20 20:17:51	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	7	67¢	$4	0x80ad09…
07-18 15:16:55	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	17	53¢	$9	0xec0a73…
07-17 15:11:28	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 17?	Yes	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x3eafee…
07-17 10:58:24	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	51	59¢	$30	0x1accb8…
07-17 10:58:06	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	95	39¢	$37	0x6c92bb…
07-17 09:02:45	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	95	52¢	$49	0xa1e9b9…
07-17 09:01:12	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	112	46¢	$52	0xce2b49…
07-16 22:21:29	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	73¢	$2	0x2c2f2a…
07-16 22:20:32	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	110	73¢	$80	0xe3f960…
07-16 22:11:50	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 16?	No	SELL	86	97¢	$83	0x32b28a…
07-16 21:34:52	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 16?	No	BUY	86	97¢	$83	0x41fd47…
07-16 21:31:13	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 16?	Yes	SELL	37	36¢	$13	0xc803bc…
07-16 21:22:49	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 16?	Yes	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0x184be0…
07-16 21:22:23	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 16?	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x2e65ab…
07-16 21:20:59	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 16?	Yes	SELL	32	41¢	$13	0x56cbbe…
07-16 21:01:19	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 16?	Yes	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0x635e07…
07-16 21:00:47	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 16?	Yes	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x2ce600…
07-15 21:08:35	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 15?	Yes	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x4a57d2…
07-15 20:23:13	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 15?	Yes	BUY	13	62¢	$8	0xa6e519…
07-15 20:22:14	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 15?	Yes	SELL	22	37¢	$8	0x0b4a09…
07-15 20:02:22	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 15?	Yes	BUY	22	41¢	$9	0x6be443…
07-15 13:18:29	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x08015a…
07-15 13:16:56	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	84¢	$28	0xc01234…
07-15 13:16:05	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	84¢	$5	0xa96c6d…
07-15 13:13:38	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0xfa9efc…
07-15 13:12:16	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	79¢	$11	0xf81ff5…
07-15 13:05:56	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	59¢	$11	0x34d516…
07-15 11:43:07	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	83¢	$16	0xf5482a…
07-14 22:19:43	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 14?	Yes	BUY	84	96¢	$80	0xeecbfc…
07-14 20:08:31	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 14?	Yes	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0xbcc17d…
07-14 16:08:50	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x852a08…
07-14 15:57:02	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x8e82d0…
07-14 14:56:35	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0xcf1a90…
07-14 10:07:50	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	80¢	$30	0xea921e…
07-14 02:52:16	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0xd8c2a6…
07-14 02:51:58	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0xe1f132…
07-14 02:08:23	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 13?	Yes	SELL	88	100¢	$88	0xbb08ea…
07-13 19:57:59	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 13?	Yes	BUY	88	81¢	$72	0xc2ec04…
07-13 03:07:07	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	82¢	$60	0x19cac4…
07-13 03:06:46	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 12?	Yes	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0x3d77bc…
07-12 20:58:20	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 12?	Yes	BUY	11	80¢	$9	0x6a6268…
07-12 20:57:46	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	47	18¢	$9	0x1e1bc6…
07-12 20:51:49	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 12?	Yes	BUY	49	74¢	$36	0x5191ea…
07-12 20:50:53	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 12?	Yes	SELL	113	31¢	$36	0xd2d789…
07-12 19:42:38	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 12?	Yes	BUY	62	75¢	$47	0xebb0fb…
07-12 19:41:17	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 12?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xc64a4b…
07-12 19:29:40	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 12?	Yes	BUY	27	66¢	$18	0xf0f8d9…
07-12 19:20:07	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 12?	Yes	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0x330585…
07-12 19:10:37	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 12?	Yes	BUY	14	52¢	$7	0xba5beb…
07-12 18:29:11	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 12?	Yes	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0x53e1c7…
07-12 03:44:40	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	47	21¢	$10	0xa1dbfa…
07-11 21:36:02	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 11?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x05fd4d…
07-11 21:29:23	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 11?	Yes	SELL	8	44¢	$4	0x118f41…
07-11 21:22:49	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 11?	Yes	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x68ca82…
07-11 21:19:26	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 11?	Yes	SELL	50	32¢	$16	0x246140…
07-11 21:16:22	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 11?	Yes	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0xc47b91…
07-11 21:15:23	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 11?	Yes	SELL	23	42¢	$10	0xc2c22a…
07-11 21:15:01	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 11?	Yes	BUY	40	58¢	$23	0x94e3d9…
07-11 21:12:25	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 11?	Yes	BUY	23	70¢	$16	0xb93132…
07-11 06:00:52	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 11?	Yes	BUY	26	1¢	$0	0xf52e63…
07-11 04:37:08	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 11?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x93c2a6…
07-11 04:32:44	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 11?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x5bd5f2…
07-11 03:55:34	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 11?	Yes	BUY	19	1¢	$0	0x5daca5…
07-11 00:23:53	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 11?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x285723…
07-11 00:18:56	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 10?	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x9f92e8…
07-11 00:10:04	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 10?	Yes	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x92a5ba…
07-11 00:05:04	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 10?	Yes	SELL	95	100¢	$95	0xa6ba13…
07-10 21:06:44	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 10?	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xfb314d…
07-10 21:04:38	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 10?	Yes	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x338643…
07-10 21:03:55	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 10?	Yes	SELL	40	37¢	$15	0x40b3ee…
07-10 20:16:53	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 10?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xfb13ff…
07-10 19:58:38	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 10?	Yes	BUY	25	65¢	$16	0x79ea79…
07-10 01:09:50	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 11?	Yes	BUY	47	4¢	$2	0x661c76…
07-10 01:09:41	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 11?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xc8444b…
07-10 01:01:53	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 10?	Yes	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x5c3426…
07-10 00:03:19	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 9?	Yes	SELL	126	100¢	$125	0x8c6936…
07-09 20:52:14	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 9?	Yes	BUY	19	93¢	$18	0xffbbdb…
07-09 20:35:47	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 9?	Yes	BUY	25	84¢	$21	0xbf0116…
07-09 20:13:10	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 9?	Yes	BUY	35	51¢	$18	0x1ef630…
07-09 20:11:32	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 9?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xeed817…
07-09 20:10:53	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 9?	Yes	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xbf1f44…
07-09 19:41:43	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 9?	Yes	SELL	28	49¢	$14	0xfda1d1…
07-09 19:39:46	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 9?	Yes	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0xafe194…
07-09 18:51:23	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 9?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x5b9f5c…
07-09 18:44:19	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 9?	Yes	BUY	19	47¢	$9	0x68b4c9…
07-09 18:41:10	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 9?	Yes	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x362bd8…
07-09 18:18:02	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on July 9?	Yes	SELL	23	0¢	$0	0x10a0c0…
07-09 18:02:02	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on July 9?	Yes	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0xe47d2e…
07-09 17:52:14	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 9?	Yes	SELL	16	23¢	$4	0x1ff42d…
07-09 17:51:38	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 9?	Yes	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x1beafd…
07-09 17:38:41	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 9?	Yes	SELL	77	45¢	$35	0x2ac32b…