Apprehensive-Influence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$35

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

44.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$226

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$12

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-25

last 10-20 15:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 21 days

Categories

Politics

36% 43% +$1

Other

27% 20% -$6

Crypto

18% 44% -$10

Tech

15% 0% -$11

Sports

5% 0% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Yes	+16	$10	58¢	$9	-$1	05-22 14:52
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+9	$3	22¢	$2	-$1	10-20 14:59
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+29	$2	1¢	$0	-$2	10-20 14:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will no government funding bill be passed by january 31 2026 823	1	$20	27	0	+27	Yes	+$7	01-25 15:45
us strike on somalia by january 31 956	2	$11	29	0	+29	Yes	-$11	01-25 15:32
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 31?	1	$10	19	0	+19	open	—	10-20 15:00
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	1	$10	53	0	+53	Yes	-$10	05-22 14:49
will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	1	$10	29	0	+29	Yes	-$10	02-07 23:49
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	1	$10	16	0	+16	open	—	05-22 14:52
will trump admin release any more epstein related files by february 28	1	$10	29	0	+29	Yes	-$10	01-25 15:35
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	1	$10	11	0	+11	No	+$1	02-19 20:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-19 20:30 UTC	3	$9	14	6	+9	Up	+$3	02-19 20:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-19 20:25 UTC	3	$7	13	5	+8	Up	+$2	02-19 20:28
Will Tesla perform another live stunt with the Roadster by April 30, 2027?	1	$5	8	0	+8	open	—	10-20 15:01
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	1	$5	25	0	+25	Down	-$5	05-22 14:53
si hit 110 high jan 2026 293 432 128	1	$5	11	0	+11	Yes	-$5	01-25 15:43
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Kamala" or "Obama" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?	1	$5	9	0	+9	Yes	+$4	10-20 15:02
internet access restored in iran by friday 263	1	$5	33	0	+33	No	-$5	01-25 15:38
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	1	$5	21	0	+21	No	+$16	03-30 19:04
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$5	7	0	+7	Yes	+$2	03-30 19:01
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?	1	$4	104	0	+104	No	-$4	10-20 15:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-13 23:00 UTC	2	$4	10	0	+10	Down	+$1	02-13 23:04
will trump say america or american 15 times during iowa speech 393	1	$4	36	0	+36	Yes	-$4	01-27 20:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 11:25 UTC	2	$4	10	0	+10	Up	+$1	02-15 11:27
will mrbeasts next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1 867	1	$3	10	0	+10	No	-$3	01-28 17:01
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?	1	$3	60	0	+60	Yes	-$3	10-20 15:05
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	1	$3	12	0	+12	Yes	+$10	02-19 20:36
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	1	$3	9	0	+9	open	—	10-20 14:59
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 22, 2026?	1	$3	25	0	+25	Yes	-$3	10-20 15:04
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" or "Deport" or "Deported" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?	1	$3	5	0	+5	No	+$2	10-20 15:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-13 23:05 UTC	1	$3	8	0	+8	Down	-$3	02-13 23:05
will powell say inflation 40 times during january press conference	1	$3	18	0	+18	No	+$15	01-28 16:56
will trump say 401k during iowa speech 141 213	1	$3	10	0	+10	Yes	-$3	01-27 20:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 15:06:50	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 80 and 100 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	150	1¢	$1	0x443285…
10-20 15:06:41	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get at least 140 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xb6df7d…
10-20 15:05:56	Will Champi peak as a Very strong typhoon?	Yes	BUY	85	2¢	$2	0x8a7b0a…
10-20 15:05:18	Will Gianni Infantino be the next President of FIFA?	No	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xf82387…
10-20 15:05:00	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0xe569ac…
10-20 15:04:53	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 22, 2026?	No	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x7e0ec4…
10-20 15:03:38	Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?	Yes	BUY	104	4¢	$4	0x2bf4b5…
10-20 15:03:21	Will Trump say "Fentanyl" or "Deport" or "Deported" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x9330d7…
10-20 15:02:56	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x402001…
10-20 15:02:17	Will Trump say "Crime" or "Criminal" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?	Yes	BUY	4	85¢	$3	0x107be6…
10-20 15:02:05	Will Trump say "Biden" or "Kamala" or "Obama" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xbb4329…
10-20 15:01:36	Will Tesla perform another live stunt with the Roadster by April 30, 2027?	No	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xf4ccdb…
10-20 15:00:53	OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by November 15?	No	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x34cf41…
10-20 15:00:41	OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 31?	No	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x52e4c4…
10-20 14:59:39	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0xa3c870…
10-20 14:57:51	France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0x0ae114…
05-22 14:53:44	XRP Up or Down - May 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xfba373…
05-22 14:52:06	Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x5b9265…
05-22 14:50:16	Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?	Yes	BUY	69	1¢	$1	0x7130cf…
05-22 14:49:58	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	No	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x323127…
03-30 19:08:51	will bully ye debut week album sales be at least 300k	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x5f960d…
03-30 19:04:11	Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x8cc51a…
03-30 19:01:17	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xb9b8d0…
02-19 20:40:42	will trump say hell 5 times in rome ga on february 19	No	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xc45cd0…
02-19 20:39:34	will trump say america or american 30 times in rome ga on february 19	No	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x259c11…
02-19 20:38:04	will trump say china 5 times in rome ga on february 19	No	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x9e2cae…
02-19 20:37:52	will trump say biden or obama 5 times in rome ga on february 19	No	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x3af679…
02-19 20:36:58	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0x0c5670…
02-19 20:32:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-19 20:30 UTC	Down	SELL	6	28¢	$2	0xcc4ab2…
02-19 20:31:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-19 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x7b84da…
02-19 20:30:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-19 20:30 UTC	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xad8163…
02-19 20:28:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-19 20:25 UTC	Down	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0xc80fc8…
02-19 20:26:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-19 20:25 UTC	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x0efc15…
02-19 20:26:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-19 20:25 UTC	Up	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0xc8b3fa…
02-19 20:25:20	us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	No	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0xe47393…
02-19 20:22:18	Prince Andrew released by February 20?	No	BUY	185	1¢	$2	0x59e58f…
02-15 11:27:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 11:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xd5e33a…
02-15 11:25:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 11:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x4dbcdb…
02-15 11:22:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 11:20 UTC	Up	BUY	9	21¢	$2	0x53c8cb…
02-13 23:05:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-13 23:05 UTC	Up	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0xdaff03…
02-13 23:04:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-13 23:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x21380c…
02-13 23:01:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-13 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x392032…
02-13 22:59:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-13 22:55 UTC	Down	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x95c715…
02-07 23:49:03	will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	No	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x67826d…
01-28 17:01:28	will mrbeasts next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1 867	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x6ad3f8…
01-28 16:56:22	will powell say inflation 40 times during january press conference	No	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0x4113d0…
01-27 20:11:17	will trump say 401k during iowa speech 141 213	No	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x8b7816…
01-27 20:11:03	will trump say greenland during iowa speech 395 962	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x449198…
01-27 20:10:49	will trump say kamala during iowa speech 351	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xbc4c45…
01-27 20:10:29	will trump say america or american 15 times during iowa speech 393	No	BUY	36	11¢	$4	0xf0b677…
01-27 20:10:01	will trump say million or billion or trillion 30 times during iowa speech	No	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0xa01ca1…
01-25 15:45:46	will no government funding bill be passed by january 31 2026 823	Yes	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0x02c016…
01-25 15:43:56	si hit 110 high jan 2026 293 432 128	No	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x66a2ac…
01-25 15:38:52	internet access restored in iran by friday 263	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xb0cfab…
01-25 15:35:02	will trump admin release any more epstein related files by february 28	No	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x11e461…
01-25 15:32:26	us strike on somalia by january 31 956	No	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x42314c…
01-25 15:31:52	us strike on somalia by january 31 956	No	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xd40ede…