Near-Familiar 0x6139c4…336b7a
whale cold
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$5.66K
Unrealized P&L
+$20.3K
Hit rate
72.8%
Resolved
8
Trades
17,150
lifetime
Volume
$4.21M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$246
Open exposure
$86.4K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-04
last 07-01 00:17
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 5 days
Categories
Politics
75% 17% $-5,821
Other
22% 100% +$161
Crypto
2% — —
Sports
0% — —
Tech
0% — —
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 456 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +36,277 $11,068 70¢ $25.6K +$14,507 06-30 21:20
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No +17,013 $5,943 100¢ $17.0K +$11,044 06-19 00:50
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +16,609 $12,609 80¢ $13.4K +$762 06-19 22:37
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No -12,009 $-10,616 100¢ $-11985 $-1,370 06-14 21:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +63,052 $9,259 16¢ $10.4K +$1,145 06-29 05:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +4,641 $1,480 30¢ $1.4K $-64 06-30 22:04
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No -2,500 $-1,230 56¢ $-1412 $-182 06-27 02:43
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? Yes +1,784 $1,061 48¢ $847 $-213 06-04 20:49
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes +9,692 $845 7¢ $654 $-191 06-15 02:00
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes +4,500 $740 12¢ $562 $-178 06-23 01:52
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No -1,000 $-620 56¢ $-560 +$60 06-26 06:06
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? No +500 $479 100¢ $499 +$19 06-17 17:39
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No -355 $-301 82¢ $-293 +$8 06-30 02:15
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Yes +4,237 $217 7¢ $282 +$64 06-23 00:00
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes +1,678 $218 11¢ $192 $-26 06-28 03:03
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes -239 $-199 74¢ $-177 +$22 06-17 06:34
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Yes +3,204 $224 6¢ $176 $-48 06-14 22:03
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No -184 $-170 93¢ $-172 $-2 06-13 00:20
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No +150 $145 100¢ $149 +$4 05-31 03:18
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +72,263 $13,107 0¢ $145 $-12,962 06-17 19:17
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Yes +1,162 $129 11¢ $127 $-2 06-23 18:58
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes +1,000 $100 10¢ $95 $-5 06-30 14:49
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? Yes +370 $78 22¢ $79 +$2 06-30 17:33
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? No -77 $-70 89¢ $-69 +$1 06-27 09:23
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No +44 $43 99¢ $44 +$1 06-07 17:21
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes -28,762 $-11,301 0¢ $-43 +$11,257 06-18 20:01
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes -148 $-44 26¢ $-39 +$5 06-18 08:17
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes +33,887 $3,362 0¢ $34 $-3,328 07-01 00:17
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? Yes +339 $17 6¢ $19 +$2 06-19 06:16
Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes +118 $8 8¢ $9 +$1 06-29 22:43