Near-Familiar — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5.66K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

72.8%

Resolved

Trades

19,832

lifetime

Volume

$4.77M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$241

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 08-10 16:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

69% 17% $-5,821

Other

27% 100% +$161

Crypto

2% — —

Sports

2% — —

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 399 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	450	$204.0K	550,929	118,225	+432,704	open	—	08-09 19:10
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	151	$164.0K	253,176	113,014	+140,162	open	—	03-04 00:02
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	33	$141.0K	142,720	0	+142,720	open	—	04-08 01:44
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	42	$140.6K	131,672	10,000	+121,672	open	—	03-04 18:51
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	1	$139.9K	140,000	0	+140,000	open	—	04-20 20:48
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	285	$129.7K	76,946	87,207	-10,261	open	—	03-01 20:43
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	53	$113.0K	115,270	8,579	+106,691	open	—	04-30 17:16
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	15	$99.7K	100,000	0	+100,000	open	—	02-02 23:44
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	147	$77.4K	107,939	107,939	+0	open	—	07-07 03:12
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?	2	$74.9K	75,000	0	+75,000	open	—	03-04 16:17
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	586	$74.1K	698,857	547,005	+151,852	open	—	05-31 13:07
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	226	$73.4K	88,425	89,639	-1,214	open	—	02-28 07:23
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	28	$65.7K	66,019	0	+66,019	open	—	06-04 00:34
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	5	$64.0K	65,617	0	+65,617	open	—	04-21 18:11
will trump admin release any more epstein related files by february 6	49	$61.9K	62,126	0	+62,126	open	—	02-07 13:39
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	265	$61.2K	82,385	39,566	+42,819	open	—	03-29 19:56
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	19	$59.6K	61,201	0	+61,201	open	—	04-21 19:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	322	$58.9K	300,388	22,500	+277,888	open	—	05-30 10:02
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	57	$53.9K	34,502	20,000	+14,502	open	—	03-04 18:47
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	66	$49.6K	65,272	9,947	+55,324	open	—	06-17 00:12
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	45	$49.4K	40,909	10,000	+30,909	open	—	04-30 07:41
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	203	$49.2K	124,024	125,115	-1,091	open	—	02-28 06:59
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	172	$43.3K	77,171	70,356	+6,815	open	—	03-12 07:23
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	294	$41.8K	235,658	135,251	+100,407	open	—	08-10 16:10
will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	33	$41.7K	29,751	13,080	+16,671	open	—	03-17 18:44
iran closes its airspace by june 8	63	$41.6K	44,740	5,793	+38,947	open	—	06-08 03:33
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 7 2026	2	$40.0K	40,000	0	+40,000	open	—	03-08 01:47
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	56	$39.7K	40,000	5,000	+35,000	open	—	04-21 00:47
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	23	$38.8K	20,000	20,000	+0	open	—	04-30 01:40
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	97	$34.9K	25,056	21,795	+3,261	open	—	03-12 03:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 20:13:43	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	344	32¢	$108	0xd85530…
08-10 16:29:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	1,000	38¢	$380	0x32f364…
08-10 16:29:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	6,187	31¢	$1,940	0xee2e0e…
08-10 16:22:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	84	29¢	$24	0xd72953…
08-10 16:10:21	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	9,409	5¢	$433	0xfca421…
08-10 16:02:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xdac2df…
08-10 16:02:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x8979c6…
08-10 16:02:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x3aefc5…
08-10 15:48:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x4f3aac…
08-10 15:48:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	28	29¢	$8	0x405695…
08-10 15:48:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	14	29¢	$4	0x1478b6…
08-10 15:48:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0x5fb097…
08-10 15:48:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	315	29¢	$91	0x72efbf…
08-10 15:48:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	445	29¢	$129	0x812623…
08-10 15:41:03	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	23	27¢	$6	0xebc663…
08-10 13:53:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	200	27¢	$54	0x8f6621…
08-10 12:48:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0xeae40e…
08-10 12:09:37	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	113	7¢	$8	0xdb648d…
08-10 11:59:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	2	27¢	$1	0x42c3aa…
08-10 11:59:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	1,227	29¢	$356	0x8a1a18…
08-10 11:40:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	86	28¢	$24	0x06d426…
08-10 11:40:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	272	28¢	$76	0x8599da…
08-10 11:38:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0x69b697…
08-10 11:37:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x0520ec…
08-10 11:36:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	42	28¢	$12	0x0a9f7a…
08-10 10:48:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	SELL	250	12¢	$30	0x36937b…
08-10 10:34:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	74	28¢	$21	0x59abf8…
08-10 10:33:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	14	28¢	$4	0xe03e10…
08-10 10:33:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	3,470	29¢	$1,020	0x8b9e81…
08-10 10:33:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	BUY	6,267	16¢	$1,019	0x2d240c…
08-10 10:28:57	Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?	No	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0xe4d351…
08-10 07:24:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	2,239	4¢	$99	0x7b7a91…
08-10 07:08:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	61	4¢	$3	0x2f08ee…
08-10 06:10:34	will saudi arabia recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	516	11¢	$57	0xef324f…
08-10 05:38:40	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	432	17¢	$73	0x1ed1bc…
08-10 01:11:39	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xefd0ec…
08-10 01:10:34	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	135	17¢	$23	0xa2eb73…
08-10 00:54:06	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	343	17¢	$58	0xf5d8cd…
08-10 00:07:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	2,435	25¢	$600	0x2ffd21…
08-10 00:06:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	BUY	7,018	17¢	$1,165	0x976e06…
08-10 00:05:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	Yes	SELL	5,000	0¢	$10	0x2365b2…
08-09 23:20:55	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	Yes	BUY	70	17¢	$12	0x6bbff2…
08-09 22:59:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	1,771	4¢	$78	0xf978dc…
08-09 22:31:27	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	35,092	4¢	$1,404	0xb2c9c5…
08-09 22:31:21	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	50,000	4¢	$2,000	0x3b6b84…
08-09 22:12:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	20,621	4¢	$825	0xa4a97f…
08-09 22:00:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	104	4¢	$4	0x93ce27…
08-09 21:54:37	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	69	82¢	$57	0x9cdca7…
08-09 21:45:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	2,200	4¢	$88	0x35457f…
08-09 21:43:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	21	4¢	$1	0xf59d45…
08-09 21:35:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	16	4¢	$1	0x936043…
08-09 21:33:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	1,825	4¢	$73	0xd1f2ce…
08-09 21:32:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0x21c25c…
08-09 21:27:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0x3f2392…
08-09 21:27:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	7	4¢	$0	0x7085ac…
08-09 21:09:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	2,500	18¢	$450	0x27b210…
08-09 19:12:37	will saudi arabia recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0xfdafe3…
08-09 19:12:36	will saudi arabia recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	150	11¢	$16	0x9f56ac…
08-09 19:12:33	will saudi arabia recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	284	11¢	$31	0x349f92…
08-09 19:10:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	2,500	48¢	$1,200	0xf7b97c…
08-09 18:28:21	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	11	82¢	$9	0x4d7a24…
08-09 17:42:36	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	500	82¢	$410	0x0ef8a5…
08-09 17:26:42	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	3	82¢	$2	0x139d68…
08-09 17:26:40	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	1,917	82¢	$1,572	0x8fa894…
08-09 17:23:39	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	2,500	81¢	$2,025	0x8aec47…
08-09 17:19:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	2,500	47¢	$1,175	0xa5388f…
08-09 16:16:22	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	238	7¢	$17	0x6c1c8d…
08-09 16:14:28	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0x73fe2a…
08-09 14:46:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	69	29¢	$20	0xbd3d31…
08-09 14:43:09	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,500	90¢	$2,250	0x05e113…
08-09 14:36:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	No	BUY	250	20¢	$50	0xbd1e27…
08-09 14:12:34	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	472	41¢	$194	0xaee8b5…
08-09 14:10:40	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0xcb4e9a…
08-09 14:06:52	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x342830…
08-09 14:04:24	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xdb9013…
08-09 14:04:22	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	4	41¢	$2	0x937b73…
08-09 14:04:22	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	4	41¢	$2	0x697968…
08-09 14:03:52	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0xa95175…
08-09 13:59:39	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0xed8b41…
08-09 13:55:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0xebdb9a…
08-09 13:22:48	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	500	44¢	$220	0x65f81c…
08-09 13:17:16	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x6dbcb0…
08-09 13:14:09	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0x85b1d1…
08-09 13:09:30	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	BUY	30	18¢	$5	0xc4deee…
08-09 13:08:58	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	BUY	170	18¢	$31	0xe04b3a…
08-09 13:07:55	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xc2d975…
08-09 13:04:19	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x26568f…
08-09 13:03:42	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x138d4b…
08-09 13:02:40	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	1,000	32¢	$320	0x56125c…
08-09 13:02:31	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0x1f891d…
08-09 12:40:22	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xa1ada3…
08-09 12:39:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	401	33¢	$132	0xeb72f8…
08-09 12:37:10	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x42f07a…
08-09 12:37:07	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	19	45¢	$9	0x5cdd89…
08-09 12:37:06	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0x6aa081…
08-09 12:37:06	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0x4db1c9…
08-09 12:27:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	200	33¢	$66	0xee6bc1…
08-09 12:26:25	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xc092b6…
08-09 12:26:25	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x84892f…
08-09 12:23:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	149	33¢	$49	0x778028…