Near-Familiar — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$53.8K

Unrealized P&L

+$299.5K

Hit rate

73.1%

Resolved

930

Trades

35,265

lifetime

Volume

$6.37M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$181

Open exposure

$412.1K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-29 20:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 188 days

Categories

Politics

64% 60% +$181,080

Other

33% 64% -$120,301

Sports

2% 58% -$2,449

Crypto

2% 40% -$4,501

Tech

0% 0% -$45

Pop-Culture

0% 83% -$30

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 1089 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+116,939	-$138,008	90¢	$104.7K	+$242,669	10-29 20:06
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	+248,254	$43,277	15¢	$36.0K	-$7,280	10-29 10:20
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	+64,726	$15,490	44¢	$28.2K	+$12,666	10-13 04:24
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	+28,569	$22,556	98¢	$28.1K	+$5,556	10-08 16:19
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	+30,822	$13,058	70¢	$21.4K	+$8,363	07-19 18:43
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	+19,995	$16,256	94¢	$18.7K	+$2,439	09-13 12:46
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	-18,000	-$12,620	86¢	$-15570	-$2,950	10-16 08:32
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+19,151	$8,365	68¢	$13.1K	+$4,753	09-18 11:37
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	+13,531	-$7,989	94¢	$12.7K	+$20,708	10-29 04:08
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+18,076	$8,092	68¢	$12.4K	+$4,290	09-18 02:47
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	No	+12,050	$6,644	88¢	$10.5K	+$3,899	10-29 12:41
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?	No	+10,224	$7,883	98¢	$10.0K	+$2,157	10-06 04:12
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	+9,879	$8,584	92¢	$9.0K	+$456	10-26 02:59
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-12,449	-$7,718	64¢	$-8030	-$311	09-13 14:24
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	-11,723	-$7,268	66¢	$-7678	-$410	09-11 16:17
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+816,184	$7,252	1¢	$6.9K	-$314	08-07 09:22
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	-7,110	-$4,195	91¢	$-6470	-$2,274	10-02 12:45
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	No	+8,460	$4,967	76¢	$6.4K	+$1,421	08-16 13:43
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+6,963	$6,007	92¢	$6.4K	+$364	10-25 05:58
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+15,000	$5,782	39¢	$5.9K	+$136	10-26 12:17
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+43,039	$398	12¢	$5.3K	+$4,917	10-05 13:58
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+175,829	$4,864	3¢	$5.3K	+$411	08-25 16:11
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Yes	+45,608	$9,452	12¢	$5.2K	-$4,207	10-18 09:03
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Yes	+37,105	$4,120	12¢	$4.4K	+$240	10-29 17:54
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	+5,000	$2,990	86¢	$4.3K	+$1,335	09-16 20:14
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	-17,494	-$6,373	24¢	$-4286	+$2,087	06-29 20:31
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+4,810	$3,644	82¢	$4.0K	+$313	10-11 00:10
Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+3,796	$3,512	100¢	$3.8K	+$277	08-17 20:20
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	-3,740	-$1,135	99¢	$-3703	-$2,567	10-17 05:34
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	No	+4,585	$3,187	78¢	$3.6K	+$390	10-28 08:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	679	$455.8K	552,229	435,290	+116,939	open	—	10-29 20:06
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	151	$164.0K	253,176	113,014	+140,162	Yes	+$198,962	03-04 00:02
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	33	$141.0K	142,720	0	+142,720	Yes	+$1,705	04-08 01:44
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	42	$140.6K	131,672	10,000	+121,672	No	+$1,026	03-04 18:51
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	1	$139.9K	140,000	0	+140,000	Yes	+$140	04-20 20:48
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	285	$129.7K	76,946	87,207	-10,261	Yes	+$2,740	03-01 20:43
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	53	$113.0K	115,270	8,579	+106,691	No	+$1,640	04-30 17:16
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	15	$99.7K	100,000	0	+100,000	Yes	+$270	02-02 23:44
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	147	$77.4K	107,939	107,939	+0	Yes	+$4,210	07-07 03:12
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?	2	$74.9K	75,000	0	+75,000	No	+$75	03-04 16:17
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	604	$74.5K	700,539	583,789	+116,750	No	-$37,261	05-31 13:07
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	226	$73.4K	88,425	89,639	-1,214	Yes	-$758	02-28 07:23
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	28	$65.7K	66,019	0	+66,019	No	+$324	06-04 00:34
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	5	$64.0K	65,617	0	+65,617	Yes	+$1,582	04-21 18:11
will trump admin release any more epstein related files by february 6	49	$61.9K	62,126	0	+62,126	Yes	+$200	02-07 13:39
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	265	$61.2K	82,385	39,566	+42,819	No	+$45,490	03-29 19:56
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	19	$59.6K	61,201	0	+61,201	Yes	+$1,601	04-21 19:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	327	$59.0K	300,677	22,500	+278,177	No	-$28,191	05-30 10:02
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	57	$53.9K	34,502	20,000	+14,502	Yes	+$577	03-04 18:47
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	316	$52.4K	269,065	20,811	+248,254	open	—	10-29 10:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	68	$49.7K	65,566	9,947	+55,618	Yes	+$20,250	06-17 00:12
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	45	$49.4K	40,909	10,000	+30,909	Yes	+$1,071	04-30 07:41
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	203	$49.2K	124,024	125,115	-1,091	Yes	-$39,902	02-28 06:59
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	355	$43.5K	251,901	251,901	+0	No	-$24,924	08-29 11:23
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	172	$43.3K	77,171	70,356	+6,815	Yes	-$2,554	03-12 07:23
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	119	$41.7K	44,463	30,932	+13,531	open	—	10-29 04:08
will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	33	$41.7K	29,751	13,080	+16,671	No	+$896	03-17 18:44
iran closes its airspace by june 8	63	$41.6K	44,740	5,793	+38,947	Yes	+$1,965	06-08 03:33
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 7 2026	2	$40.0K	40,000	0	+40,000	No	+$40	03-08 01:47
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	56	$39.7K	40,000	5,000	+35,000	No	+$2,420	04-21 00:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 20:06:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	14,982	89¢	$13,334	0x84f34d…
10-29 19:22:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	100	89¢	$89	0xab12dc…
10-29 19:00:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	8	89¢	$7	0x5c555c…
10-29 17:54:14	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	16	48¢	$8	0xf7d094…
10-29 17:54:14	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	14	48¢	$6	0xcb62df…
10-29 17:54:14	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	81	48¢	$39	0xc3cf81…
10-29 17:54:14	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	15	48¢	$7	0x725142…
10-29 17:54:14	Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Yes	SELL	871	17¢	$152	0x6386db…
10-29 17:54:14	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	28,567	48¢	$13,712	0x553f2e…
10-29 17:54:14	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1,051	48¢	$504	0x3bf09a…
10-29 17:54:14	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	4	48¢	$2	0x2280b4…
10-29 17:54:08	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	343	3¢	$12	0x1debf6…
10-29 17:51:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	9	89¢	$8	0xb91fd0…
10-29 17:51:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	9,901	89¢	$8,812	0x304056…
10-29 17:49:11	Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	Yes	SELL	228	8¢	$18	0xa35c60…
10-29 17:46:52	Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	14¢	$72	0xb5baa9…
10-29 17:38:53	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	BUY	400	67¢	$268	0xd4a1b1…
10-29 17:35:44	Will Obafemi Hamzat win the 2027 Lagos State gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x801e22…
10-29 17:35:44	Will Obafemi Hamzat win the 2027 Lagos State gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x3574d8…
10-29 17:31:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1,171	90¢	$1,054	0x30ca52…
10-29 17:31:23	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10,000	6¢	$600	0xdf7dd7…
10-29 17:20:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	606	90¢	$546	0x03d10e…
10-29 17:02:05	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	Yes	BUY	44	12¢	$5	0xc0d04e…
10-29 16:53:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	Yes	BUY	0	12¢	$0	0x22f347…
10-29 16:53:37	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x348d08…
10-29 16:53:35	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	Yes	BUY	105	12¢	$12	0x8aa2ff…
10-29 15:47:52	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x7b56af…
10-29 15:20:37	Will Mbah Peter Ndubuisi win the 2027 Enugu State gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	1	26¢	$0	0xe79d55…
10-29 15:11:02	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	2,500	46¢	$1,150	0x431606…
10-29 15:06:22	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,500	46¢	$1,150	0x627f68…
10-29 14:48:02	Will Mbah Peter Ndubuisi win the 2027 Enugu State gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	2	26¢	$1	0xacd82a…
10-29 14:08:05	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	No	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xf69532…
10-29 14:08:05	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	No	BUY	6	13¢	$1	0xdf4ff7…
10-29 14:08:05	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	No	BUY	30	13¢	$4	0x2869f7…
10-29 14:08:04	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	No	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x8683e3…
10-29 13:35:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	No	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x3b322a…
10-29 13:15:13	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	No	BUY	851	3¢	$29	0xfd367d…
10-29 13:15:13	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	No	BUY	76	3¢	$3	0x6f1548…
10-29 13:06:53	Will Obafemi Hamzat win the 2027 Lagos State gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	13	20¢	$3	0x50dd3e…
10-29 12:41:22	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	No	SELL	161	89¢	$144	0xb6592d…
10-29 12:23:26	Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x9a1283…
10-29 11:10:05	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by December 31?	No	BUY	103	61¢	$63	0x3a154f…
10-29 10:20:55	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	24,733	12¢	$2,968	0x50bb1f…
10-29 08:38:23	Will Oborevwori Sheriff Francis Orohwedor win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	1	40¢	$0	0xb19789…
10-29 06:57:28	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	No	SELL	96	83¢	$80	0x0f4cbd…
10-29 05:53:04	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0x3ae3c6…
10-29 05:52:13	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	207	12¢	$25	0xc66996…
10-29 05:52:13	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xa6dbb5…
10-29 05:52:13	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2,652	13¢	$345	0x967327…
10-29 05:46:02	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?	No	SELL	40	92¢	$37	0x416096…
10-29 05:45:58	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	No	SELL	40	83¢	$33	0x1f0507…
10-29 05:27:26	Will Obafemi Hamzat win the 2027 Lagos State gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	13	20¢	$3	0xe5ce38…
10-29 05:27:26	Will Obafemi Hamzat win the 2027 Lagos State gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	12	20¢	$2	0x9dc729…
10-29 05:27:26	Will Obafemi Hamzat win the 2027 Lagos State gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0x32d4cd…
10-29 04:08:16	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	652	92¢	$599	0x11fccb…
10-29 04:05:28	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	Yes	SELL	4,035	1¢	$28	0x57bd2f…
10-29 03:22:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x8ba951…
10-29 03:19:02	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	391	22¢	$86	0x7e13cf…
10-29 02:51:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	2,000	90¢	$1,800	0xb3818f…
10-29 02:45:55	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	1,785	45¢	$803	0x69fc75…
10-29 02:44:25	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	11	45¢	$5	0x676ca9…
10-29 02:09:58	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	200	45¢	$90	0xfa77d8…
10-29 01:34:13	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	No	SELL	40	83¢	$33	0xa9bbab…
10-29 01:16:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	139	90¢	$125	0x6fcee8…
10-29 01:16:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	12	90¢	$11	0xab50ce…
10-29 01:15:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	16	90¢	$14	0x19f91e…
10-29 01:15:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	33	90¢	$30	0x07e64d…
10-29 01:14:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	42	90¢	$38	0xaa824e…
10-29 01:14:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	290	90¢	$261	0x3c4b0a…
10-29 01:14:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	5,671	90¢	$5,104	0x88bef5…
10-29 00:53:34	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by December 31?	No	BUY	250	61¢	$152	0xb14bc5…
10-29 00:01:07	US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x4d36f0…
10-28 22:40:46	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x476864…
10-28 22:40:08	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	114	45¢	$51	0x2499a8…
10-28 22:37:10	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	120	45¢	$54	0x11d020…
10-28 21:57:43	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	51	45¢	$23	0x1f0b6d…
10-28 21:39:58	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	198	13¢	$26	0xa51db6…
10-28 21:39:58	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x66bb3c…
10-28 21:11:29	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	759	78¢	$592	0xae38cf…
10-28 21:04:07	Will Democrats win fewer than 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	17	98¢	$16	0xb092b9…
10-28 21:03:56	Will Democrats win fewer than 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	77	98¢	$75	0x27fa55…
10-28 21:03:55	Will Democrats win fewer than 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	62	98¢	$61	0xe5e24e…
10-28 21:03:52	Will Democrats win fewer than 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x1be20a…
10-28 21:03:16	Will Democrats win fewer than 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$27	0x32c376…
10-28 21:03:14	Will Democrats win fewer than 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0x3f2358…
10-28 21:03:13	Will Democrats win fewer than 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	62	98¢	$61	0xb6ee03…
10-28 21:03:13	Will Democrats win fewer than 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	60	98¢	$59	0xb184d1…
10-28 21:00:50	Will Democrats win fewer than 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xe29187…
10-28 21:00:50	Will Democrats win fewer than 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x9f2a6d…
10-28 21:00:47	Will Democrats win fewer than 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xb9cb1a…
10-28 21:00:47	Will Democrats win fewer than 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	80	98¢	$79	0xa48092…
10-28 20:48:50	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	184	45¢	$83	0x18cb3e…
10-28 20:37:41	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	35	45¢	$16	0x54365f…
10-28 20:34:11	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 3%-6%?	No	BUY	250	83¢	$208	0x63d5ff…
10-28 20:33:26	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by December 31?	No	BUY	162	61¢	$99	0xf6ca68…
10-28 19:30:05	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	No	BUY	258	13¢	$34	0x7ce231…
10-28 19:08:25	Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x0c0e11…
10-28 19:01:17	Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,550	44¢	$682	0x2149c0…
10-28 18:55:35	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	3¢	$1	0x05f471…
10-28 18:55:28	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	243	3¢	$8	0xf076f7…