Near-Familiar 0x6139c4…336b7a
whale cold
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$5.66K
Unrealized P&L
+$95.2K
Hit rate
72.8%
Resolved
8
Trades
18,525
lifetime
Volume
$4.57M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$247
Open exposure
$236.5K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-04
last 07-20 23:42
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 5 days
Categories
Politics
70% 17% $-5,821
Other
26% 100% +$161
Crypto
2% — —
Sports
2% — —
Tech
0% — —
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 399 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +389,949 $93,783 44¢ $173.5K +$79,744 07-20 11:44
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +33,552 $8,754 80¢ $26.7K +$17,920 07-19 11:59
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +10,000 $9,300 94¢ $9.4K +$150 07-10 20:33
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +10,283 $7,239 86¢ $8.9K +$1,656 07-09 01:32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No -6,449 $-4,042 64¢ $-4160 $-118 07-20 19:51
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No -4,010 $-2,224 70¢ $-2787 $-563 07-13 12:15
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes +16,896 $2,075 12¢ $2.1K +$37 07-20 03:27
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +2,000 $1,390 74¢ $1.5K +$80 07-19 16:11
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes -1,468 $-1,159 86¢ $-1270 $-111 07-20 21:59
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? Yes +1,784 $1,061 56¢ $1.0K $-53 06-04 20:49
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes +6,041 $852 15¢ $891 +$39 07-16 18:47
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No -1,003 $-844 86¢ $-868 $-23 07-20 12:04
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes +9,692 $845 6¢ $538 $-307 06-15 02:00
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No -457 $-442 96¢ $-438 +$3 07-11 22:24
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? Yes +404 $390 100¢ $404 +$14 07-03 15:28
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? No -439 $-395 89¢ $-390 +$4 07-12 01:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +23,834 $3,580 1¢ $322 $-3,259 07-13 02:13
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No -334 $-310 94¢ $-312 $-2 07-20 23:42
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? Yes +989 $202 22¢ $223 +$21 07-04 09:08
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes -1,191 $-252 18¢ $-220 +$32 07-16 21:41
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Yes +3,204 $224 4¢ $144 $-80 06-14 22:03
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Yes +4,237 $217 3¢ $112 $-105 06-23 00:00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No -86 $-70 83¢ $-72 $-2 07-20 13:32
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Yes +560 $59 11¢ $62 +$3 07-04 02:46
Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes +1,000 $70 4¢ $42 $-28 07-04 10:09
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +138 $-236 26¢ $37 +$273 07-13 10:35
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? Yes +464 $22 5¢ $22 $-0 07-18 02:02
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes +131 $5 6¢ $7 +$2 06-22 22:55
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes +8 $1 30¢ $3 +$2 07-20 19:09
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? No +22 $101 3¢ $1 $-101 06-21 06:13