Realized P&L
-$17.3K
Unrealized P&L
+$123
Hit rate
73.3%
Resolved
4,975
Trades
25,734
lifetime
Volume
$556.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$22
Open exposure
$3.21K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-21 17:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 103 days
Categories
Other
94% 84% -$12,463
Politics
3% 81% +$93
Sports
2% 70% -$4,766
Crypto
1% 81% -$17
Tech
1% 73% -$78
Pop-Culture
0% 60% -$39
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
27 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No +416 $414 100¢ $415 +$1 05-27 03:06
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No +242 $230 100¢ $241 +$11 06-01 21:21
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +231 $230 100¢ $231 +$1 06-01 09:19
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +231 $230 100¢ $231 +$1 06-01 09:19
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +231 $230 100¢ $231 +$1 06-01 09:19
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +231 $222 100¢ $230 +$8 06-01 09:19
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +231 $230 99¢ $229 $0 06-01 09:19
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +231 $190 98¢ $227 +$37 06-01 09:19
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No +375 $328 54¢ $202 -$126 06-21 12:50
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No +341 $56 50¢ $171 +$114 06-01 17:26
Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No — +157 $157 100¢ $157 $0 05-26 18:06
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +181 $167 77¢ $139 -$28 05-25 17:31
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +231 $72 28¢ $65 -$7 06-16 09:43
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? No +55 $54 100¢ $55 +$1 06-12 14:32
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? No +55 $55 100¢ $55 +$0 06-12 14:32
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? No +55 $53 100¢ $55 +$2 06-12 14:32
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? No +55 $54 100¢ $55 +$1 06-12 14:32
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? No +57 $21 90¢ $51 +$29 06-12 14:32
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -10,000 -$90 0¢ $-35 +$55 06-17 19:10
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes -48 -$34 50¢ $-24 +$10 06-21 12:50
Will Myriam Bregman win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No +15 $15 98¢ $15 $0 05-30 14:24
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No +15 $15 85¢ $13 -$2 05-30 14:24
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes -50 -$5 23¢ $-12 -$7 06-01 13:12
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -1,500 -$13 1¢ $-11 +$2 06-17 19:11
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -2,000 -$26 1¢ $-11 +$15 06-17 19:11
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No +15 $8 72¢ $11 +$2 05-30 14:24
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? No +15 $8 68¢ $10 +$2 06-23 16:02
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +10 $10 100¢ $10 +$0 05-16 13:18
Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +10 $10 99¢ $10 $0 05-16 13:18
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +10 $10 97¢ $10 $0 05-16 13:18