Worst-Situation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.3%

Resolved

Trades

126

lifetime

Volume

$1.28K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 10-26 16:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 38 days

Categories

Other

45% 95% +$1

Politics

33% 88% +$3

Crypto

19% 100% +$1

Tech

3% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	3	$92	50	50	+0	open	—	10-26 16:23
LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?	2	$82	41	41	+0	Yes	+$0	09-10 15:47
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	2	$81	41	41	+0	No	+$0	09-07 13:03
us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	2	$81	41	41	+0	No	+$0	08-13 01:21
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	2	$80	41	41	+0	No	+$0	08-31 20:13
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$80	42	42	+0	No	-$1	08-25 13:35
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$68	42	42	+0	No	+$0	10-05 07:27
Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	1	$42	42	0	+42	Yes	+$0	09-22 12:41
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$41	42	0	+42	No	+$0	09-14 16:52
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$41	42	0	+42	No	+$0	08-17 07:30
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$41	41	0	+41	No	+$0	08-15 17:57
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	2	$41	42	0	+42	No	+$1	08-19 15:10
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	1	$41	41	0	+41	No	+$1	08-13 16:07
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$40	41	0	+41	Yes	+$0	08-05 09:13
Will XRP reach $2.00 in September?	1	$37	37	0	+37	No	+$0	09-28 18:46
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in August?	2	$35	18	18	+0	No	+$0	08-31 13:17
GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$33	34	0	+34	No	+$0	07-30 14:53
Will SpaceXAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	3	$33	16	16	+0	No	+$0	08-31 15:59
tsla above 410 on march 31 2026	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	03-31 13:24
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$20	42	42	+0	Yes	+$0	10-19 13:40
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	2	$17	17	0	+17	No	+$0	06-29 14:51
will bitcoin reach 115k in february 2026	1	$16	16	0	+16	No	+$0	02-25 17:01
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in August?	2	$14	7	7	+0	No	+$0	08-31 13:32
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	2	$14	14	0	+14	Yes	+$0	06-28 23:58
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	04-29 04:38
pltr above 200 on january 30 2026	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	01-23 19:48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	2	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	05-09 02:41
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	2	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	05-08 23:54
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 756	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	01-17 05:08
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	09-30 23:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 16:23:39	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	18	93¢	$16	0xe2226d…
10-26 15:45:26	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	32	93¢	$30	0x4a8cf8…
10-25 22:54:41	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	SELL	23	7¢	$2	0xe81627…
10-25 22:54:41	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	SELL	9	7¢	$1	0x22a081…
10-23 01:52:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	32	0¢	$0	0x8bb138…
10-22 06:30:05	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0xfa8ed2…
10-19 13:40:36	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	42	24¢	$10	0xd6cdfd…
10-17 21:22:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	42	23¢	$10	0x5b4e79…
10-05 07:27:41	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	42	81¢	$34	0x2035a0…
10-05 07:11:38	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	42	80¢	$34	0x217036…
09-30 23:24:24	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x71e94b…
09-28 18:46:23	Will XRP reach $2.00 in September?	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0x649aa7…
09-27 03:35:26	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1ff7da…
09-22 12:41:00	Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	Yes	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0x789314…
09-14 16:52:07	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	42	100¢	$41	0xb5a3b4…
09-10 15:47:27	LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0x3ea429…
09-09 16:32:22	LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	41	99¢	$41	0x8a24ab…
09-07 13:03:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0x498113…
09-05 12:37:52	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	41	99¢	$41	0x3c2a9c…
08-31 20:13:24	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	41	99¢	$40	0x65ed7d…
08-31 17:01:34	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	41	99¢	$40	0x3c7eba…
08-31 15:59:39	Will SpaceXAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x4f6f64…
08-31 15:59:37	Will SpaceXAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x466fc5…
08-31 13:32:04	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in August?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x52e060…
08-31 13:17:58	Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in August?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xe5f9e6…
08-29 14:19:25	Will SpaceXAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xa9119e…
08-27 10:46:58	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in August?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xcd389e…
08-27 03:57:48	Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in August?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$17	0xe0bd5f…
08-25 13:35:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	42	93¢	$39	0x78ba57…
08-24 05:59:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	42	97¢	$41	0xee7429…
08-23 09:09:27	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xc63e00…
08-19 15:16:24	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xbda839…
08-19 15:10:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	32	98¢	$31	0x122968…
08-19 15:05:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xb7b1e8…
08-17 07:30:27	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	42	99¢	$41	0x75bf58…
08-16 20:25:39	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x7c777a…
08-16 20:25:33	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	0¢	$0	0x94c3ef…
08-16 20:18:48	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	0¢	$0	0x4a5461…
08-16 20:18:12	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	0¢	$0	0x2c9085…
08-16 20:18:10	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x1bc35d…
08-15 17:57:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	41	99¢	$41	0xcccf2c…
08-13 16:07:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	41	98¢	$41	0x1b048b…
08-13 01:21:12	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0x76e409…
08-10 04:00:18	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	BUY	41	100¢	$40	0x58059a…
08-05 09:13:35	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	41	100¢	$40	0x3ec75a…
07-30 14:53:21	GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	34	99¢	$33	0x46b9ae…
07-27 10:06:43	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb9e0e1…
07-26 17:33:04	will ethereum dip to 1500 in july 2026 446 668	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x897802…
07-25 10:30:57	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xa59312…
07-23 07:00:01	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0a8130…
07-20 21:50:49	will xauusd dip to 3400 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7ae9e4…
06-29 14:51:53	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x42144c…
06-28 23:58:29	Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5c6b1a…
06-28 23:39:10	Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x3d81c4…
06-28 13:05:08	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$12	0x678a5f…
06-27 15:08:28	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x421f3c…
06-27 07:53:43	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe908c1…
06-27 03:58:10	Will Silver (SI) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x49828b…
05-15 03:17:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xe2fa37…
05-13 13:02:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x13418c…
05-11 21:05:50	Will Solana reach $140 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x57c846…
05-09 10:50:28	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf47334…
05-09 07:31:07	Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x7b3e97…
05-09 07:17:59	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe6e92a…
05-09 02:41:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x38bcc7…
05-08 23:54:48	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xcca9bc…
05-08 21:28:46	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x4e7c1e…
05-08 05:33:31	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0bcff9…
05-06 10:46:10	Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x4acf68…
05-05 21:21:10	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf52f9c…
05-05 14:32:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x64827f…
05-05 10:54:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x141b3f…
04-29 04:38:00	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6f5973…
04-26 06:34:32	Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x844e03…
04-25 04:40:22	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0e2fd8…
04-24 02:41:44	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x1f43a9…
04-22 23:11:32	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xe18911…
04-21 13:20:58	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe5e3fe…
04-20 00:09:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x8b429d…
04-18 13:38:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf7507c…
04-17 07:20:12	Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x304f1f…
04-16 17:40:04	Will Solana reach $160 in April?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xfcb6cd…
04-15 06:39:40	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $220 end of April?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x8941ed…
04-14 18:44:18	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x860821…
03-31 13:24:35	tsla above 410 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xcf7e3b…
03-27 13:52:19	will anthropic have the third best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xad1bf7…
03-26 08:11:05	will xai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 497	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xfca91c…
03-25 04:25:55	will hyperliquid dip to 16 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6fb887…
03-19 14:36:39	will microsoft be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd8bb2d…
03-18 02:36:11	will the bank of brazil increase the selic rate after march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf88eea…
03-17 02:34:59	msft above 495 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xeabf73…
03-15 15:50:29	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x947fa5…
03-13 17:56:27	aapl above 330 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb3cd4d…
03-12 08:27:21	amzn above 250 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x262fa9…
03-10 23:58:15	googl above 370 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x747fd8…
03-08 19:48:41	will chainlink reach 20 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa5edec…
03-07 06:10:25	nflx above 40 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa4e59a…
03-05 12:21:33	nvda above 240 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9fa2dc…
03-04 17:20:13	will the ecb announce an increase at the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7b57db…
03-04 00:23:33	will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x50ac0c…