Improbable-Crepe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12.7K

Unrealized P&L

-$2.65K

Hit rate

50.5%

Resolved

Trades

104

lifetime

Volume

$69.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$668

Open exposure

$430

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 07-14 22:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 22 days

Categories

Crypto

89% 30% -$13,524

Politics

10% 75% +$1,022

Other

1% 50% -$205

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-14).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+5,064	$3,076	8¢	$430	-$2,645	07-14 22:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin up or down january 9 10pm et	2	$11.0K	5,754	5,754	+0	Down	+$535	01-10 04:02
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 04:30 UTC	1	$5.7K	10,441	0	+10,441	Down	-$5,748	01-10 04:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$3.9K	2,333	2,333	+0	No	+$397	05-28 04:50
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 05:00 UTC	2	$3.3K	2,027	2,004	+23	Up	+$562	01-10 05:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-11 08:00 UTC	1	$3.1K	0	3,321	-3,321	Down	-$221	01-11 08:10
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$3.1K	5,064	0	+5,064	open	—	07-14 22:08
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	2	$2.8K	1,810	1,810	+0	No	+$649	05-26 00:02
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2?	2	$2.8K	5,032	5,032	+0	No	-$1,313	06-02 03:21
bitcoin up or down january 9 2pm et	1	$2.6K	0	2,604	-2,604	Down	-$3	01-09 20:00
bitcoin up or down january 9 3pm et	1	$2.6K	6,592	0	+6,592	Down	+$3,990	01-09 20:10
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	2	$2.2K	1,602	1,602	+0	Yes	+$76	05-18 03:20
bitcoin up or down january 9 11am et	2	$2.0K	1,225	1,225	+0	Up	+$385	01-09 16:51
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 05:15 UTC	1	$1.9K	4,514	0	+4,514	Up	-$1,943	01-10 05:21
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-12 00:30 UTC	1	$1.8K	10,162	0	+10,162	Down	-$1,797	01-12 00:34
will bitcoin dip to 80k in january 2026	2	$1.6K	4,361	4,361	+0	Yes	-$305	01-10 22:29
will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026	2	$1.3K	5,371	5,371	+0	No	-$1,265	02-23 16:03
bitcoin up or down january 9 12pm et	1	$1.2K	9,157	0	+9,157	Down	-$1,200	01-09 17:29
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?	2	$1.2K	6,240	5,867	+373	No	-$920	04-17 17:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 23:30 UTC	2	$1.0K	1,061	1,053	+8	Down	+$598	01-10 23:38
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 23:45 UTC	1	$812	2,102	0	+2,102	Down	+$1,290	01-10 23:49
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-12 00:15 UTC	2	$800	5,478	0	+5,478	Up	-$800	01-12 00:19
will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	2	$745	10,674	10,674	+0	No	-$656	03-26 23:46
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	1	$718	0	1,648	-1,648	No	+$718	02-24 13:41
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?	2	$676	1,594	1,594	+0	No	-$480	06-11 20:39
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 22:30 UTC	1	$654	4,937	0	+4,937	Up	-$654	01-10 22:32
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	3	$653	62,045	111,519	-49,474	No	-$207	01-10 22:46
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-11 07:30 UTC	1	$600	3,374	0	+3,374	Down	-$600	01-11 07:37
bitcoin up or down january 9 6pm et	1	$600	1,610	0	+1,610	Up	-$600	01-09 23:13
bitcoin up or down january 9 7pm et	1	$600	822	0	+822	Down	+$222	01-10 00:24
bitcoin up or down january 9 9pm et	1	$500	1,653	0	+1,653	Up	-$500	01-10 02:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-14 22:08:08	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,916	53¢	$1,015	0x484998…
06-16 02:31:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,149	65¢	$2,061	0x53a904…
06-13 20:23:22	will bitcoin reach 65000 in june 2026 from june 4	No	BUY	912	10¢	$91	0xa4b89d…
06-13 02:20:57	Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	BUY	99	98¢	$97	0x8b1ee4…
06-11 20:39:40	will bitcoin reach 75k in june 2026	Yes	SELL	1,594	6¢	$98	0x3b7f17…
06-02 14:44:30	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?	Yes	BUY	1,594	36¢	$578	0x88080d…
06-02 14:35:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	333	30¢	$100	0x450a55…
06-02 14:16:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	SELL	523	27¢	$141	0xff21b8…
06-02 14:16:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	523	19¢	$100	0x771c01…
06-02 14:12:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	303	39¢	$118	0x64e038…
06-02 14:11:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	303	33¢	$100	0xfe0474…
06-02 14:07:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	609	12¢	$76	0x690e65…
06-02 14:06:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	609	16¢	$100	0x796310…
06-02 14:01:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	SELL	502	13¢	$66	0x1f6b42…
06-02 14:01:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	502	20¢	$100	0x24e6f8…
06-02 13:59:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	378	21¢	$78	0x9bf678…
06-02 13:58:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	378	26¢	$100	0x8e9d8e…
06-02 13:49:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	SELL	162	55¢	$90	0x3db4bc…
06-02 13:47:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	162	47¢	$76	0x977949…
06-02 13:17:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	SELL	538	13¢	$69	0x7e91ae…
06-02 13:17:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	538	19¢	$100	0xbce1ef…
06-02 05:41:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	SELL	837	23¢	$191	0xdca514…
06-02 05:40:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	837	12¢	$100	0x4e832a…
06-02 04:56:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	748	13¢	$100	0xefd9fe…
06-02 03:48:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	SELL	400	66¢	$262	0xe743e8…
06-02 03:48:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	400	25¢	$100	0x0b8de1…
06-02 03:44:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0x2089a0…
06-02 03:21:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2?	Yes	SELL	5,032	14¢	$730	0x58c269…
06-01 14:27:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2?	Yes	BUY	5,032	41¢	$2,043	0x24a28d…
05-28 04:50:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,333	92¢	$2,147	0x8eaab0…
05-26 20:23:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,333	75¢	$1,750	0x952917…
05-26 00:02:56	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	No	SELL	1,810	97¢	$1,749	0xec9879…
05-20 14:31:44	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	No	BUY	1,810	61¢	$1,100	0x01ef5a…
05-18 03:20:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	1,602	70¢	$1,122	0x3fdfee…
05-03 21:04:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	1,602	65¢	$1,045	0xa83818…
04-17 17:14:58	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$60k	BUY	673	19¢	$128	0x0c00b2…
04-17 17:12:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	5,867	2¢	$137	0xaa4567…
04-09 15:39:55	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	6,240	17¢	$1,057	0xbe3bd7…
03-30 15:32:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 15:30 UTC	Down	BUY	828	42¢	$347	0xb3c32b…
03-30 04:48:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 04:45 UTC	Down	SELL	733	6¢	$46	0xfabdd6…
03-30 04:47:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 04:45 UTC	Down	BUY	64	21¢	$14	0x1ad220…
03-30 04:46:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 04:45 UTC	Down	BUY	678	20¢	$136	0xcafebc…
03-30 04:41:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 04:40 UTC	Up	BUY	723	14¢	$100	0xd3c301…
03-30 04:29:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 04:25 UTC	Down	SELL	85	9¢	$8	0xf7c5e4…
03-30 04:26:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 04:25 UTC	Down	BUY	457	22¢	$100	0x47edec…
03-29 15:53:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 15:50 UTC	Up	SELL	233	92¢	$215	0x5617d8…
03-29 15:51:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 15:50 UTC	Up	BUY	237	42¢	$100	0x0d8317…
03-29 04:09:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 04:05 UTC	Down	SELL	399	9¢	$37	0x16c6b9…
03-29 04:07:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 04:05 UTC	Down	BUY	403	25¢	$100	0xe107ae…
03-29 04:02:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-29 04:00 UTC	Up	BUY	534	19¢	$100	0x11d2a8…
03-28 04:45:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 04:40 UTC	Up	SELL	517	40¢	$205	0x56ea06…
03-28 04:42:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 04:40 UTC	Up	BUY	520	19¢	$100	0xca9a2a…
03-28 04:01:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 04:00 UTC	Up	BUY	578	17¢	$100	0x0713db…
03-28 03:57:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 03:55 UTC	Down	BUY	377	27¢	$100	0xecdd36…
03-28 03:47:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	557	18¢	$100	0x337589…
03-28 03:28:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 03:25 UTC	Down	BUY	192	52¢	$100	0xa0b785…
03-28 03:21:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 03:20 UTC	Down	BUY	625	18¢	$112	0xaf6b1d…
03-28 03:01:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 03:00 UTC	Down	BUY	427	23¢	$100	0x6c141d…
03-28 00:44:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 00:40 UTC	Up	SELL	303	4¢	$11	0xff08a2…
03-28 00:41:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 00:40 UTC	Up	BUY	305	20¢	$60	0xee23f6…
03-27 00:22:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 00:20 UTC	Up	BUY	897	5¢	$45	0xcf3353…
03-26 23:46:25	will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	Yes	SELL	10,674	0¢	$45	0xa2bca9…
03-04 19:47:05	will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	10,674	7¢	$700	0xf60ae3…
02-28 15:46:59	will us or israel strike iran on march 1 2026	No	BUY	901	4¢	$39	0x208bc1…
02-24 13:41:28	will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	Yes	SELL	1,648	44¢	$718	0xa129aa…
02-23 16:03:40	will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026	Yes	SELL	5,371	0¢	$21	0xaaf998…
02-05 04:48:51	will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026	Yes	BUY	5,371	24¢	$1,286	0xb90f4a…
01-12 00:34:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-12 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	10,162	18¢	$1,797	0x15b5c2…
01-12 00:19:56	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-12 00:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3,127	10¢	$300	0x283016…
01-12 00:17:18	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-12 00:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2,351	21¢	$500	0x9bcf98…
01-11 23:41:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-11 23:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1,834	27¢	$500	0xfa4a92…
01-11 08:10:54	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-11 08:00 UTC	Down	SELL	3,321	93¢	$3,100	0x46ba51…
01-11 07:37:56	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-11 07:30 UTC	Up	BUY	3,374	18¢	$600	0x14d255…
01-11 03:20:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-11 03:15 UTC	Down	BUY	4,143	10¢	$401	0xd08856…
01-10 23:49:08	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 23:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2,102	39¢	$812	0x9d9497…
01-10 23:38:16	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 23:30 UTC	Down	SELL	1,053	78¢	$818	0x5a5117…
01-10 23:34:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 23:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1,061	21¢	$228	0x0e4849…
01-10 23:25:46	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 23:15 UTC	Up	BUY	16	71¢	$11	0x38f48d…
01-10 22:46:40	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	111,519	0¢	$223	0x3347bf…
01-10 22:32:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 22:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4,937	13¢	$654	0xf82c30…
01-10 22:29:30	will bitcoin dip to 80k in january 2026	Yes	SELL	4,361	15¢	$654	0xae32ec…
01-10 05:21:22	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 05:15 UTC	Down	BUY	4,514	43¢	$1,943	0x576709…
01-10 05:11:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 05:00 UTC	Up	SELL	2,004	97¢	$1,944	0x395cfa…
01-10 05:01:20	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 05:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2,027	69¢	$1,404	0x2afb9a…
01-10 04:29:24	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-10 04:30 UTC	Up	BUY	10,441	55¢	$5,748	0x946bdd…
01-10 04:02:02	bitcoin up or down january 9 10pm et	Down	SELL	5,754	100¢	$5,748	0x384b02…
01-10 03:37:44	bitcoin up or down january 9 10pm et	Down	BUY	5,754	91¢	$5,214	0xed6bf1…
01-10 02:26:52	bitcoin up or down january 9 9pm et	Down	BUY	1,653	30¢	$500	0xfcb171…
01-10 01:39:18	bitcoin up or down january 9 8pm et	Down	BUY	3,898	13¢	$500	0x8b2cb6…
01-10 00:24:30	bitcoin up or down january 9 7pm et	Down	BUY	822	73¢	$600	0x63950d…
01-09 23:13:10	bitcoin up or down january 9 6pm et	Down	BUY	1,610	37¢	$600	0x366d8c…
01-09 20:10:10	bitcoin up or down january 9 3pm et	Down	BUY	6,592	39¢	$2,602	0x308094…
01-09 20:00:24	bitcoin up or down january 9 2pm et	Down	SELL	2,604	100¢	$2,602	0xf6f68a…
01-09 17:29:34	bitcoin up or down january 9 12pm et	Up	BUY	9,157	13¢	$1,200	0x65b9ee…
01-09 16:51:04	bitcoin up or down january 9 11am et	Up	SELL	1,225	98¢	$1,200	0x7addd6…
01-09 16:34:48	bitcoin up or down january 9 11am et	Up	BUY	1,225	67¢	$815	0x95423f…
01-09 15:23:34	bitcoin above 90k on january 9	No	BUY	667	15¢	$100	0xcecc7d…
01-09 15:20:26	bitcoin above 90k on january 9	No	BUY	323	31¢	$100	0x5f0e6e…
01-09 15:08:20	Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	No	SELL	301	76¢	$229	0xcfb575…
01-09 14:50:26	Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	No	BUY	164	69¢	$113	0x6ee3ca…