Realized P&L
-$5.67K
Unrealized P&L
+$7.87K
Hit rate
2.8%
Resolved
3,513
Trades
50,003
lifetime
Volume
$1.16M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$23
Open exposure
$76.8K
30 positions
First seen
2026-09-20
last 10-26 19:56
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 36 days
Categories
Other
64% 13% -$3,987
Politics
29% 8% -$1,059
Tech
5% 3% -$530
Sports
1% 14% -$4
Crypto
1% 4% -$44
Pop-Culture
1% 0% -$41
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
37 active days in 12wk • peak 2020 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +7,355 $4,649 86¢ $6.4K +$1,714 10-24 20:32
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? No +5,065 $4,091 78¢ $3.9K -$165 10-23 09:26
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? Yes +4,443 $3,446 82¢ $3.6K +$176 10-19 06:25
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +3,498 $2,912 92¢ $3.2K +$324 10-21 18:52
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +3,218 $2,783 99¢ $3.2K +$395 10-23 02:29
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +3,777 $2,997 76¢ $2.9K -$108 10-24 02:12
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No +5,080 $2,931 56¢ $2.9K -$69 10-20 18:05
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +3,627 $2,642 78¢ $2.8K +$178 10-13 10:34
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +3,367 $2,381 81¢ $2.7K +$343 10-26 16:00
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +2,908 $2,345 94¢ $2.7K +$374 10-25 19:54
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +4,021 $2,765 66¢ $2.6K -$132 10-26 00:17
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +4,317 $2,534 61¢ $2.6K +$100 10-25 22:03
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? No +2,929 $2,314 86¢ $2.5K +$220 10-14 11:08
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +4,311 $2,079 56¢ $2.4K +$333 10-26 16:50
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes +2,746 $1,660 88¢ $2.4K +$743 10-26 11:17
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +5,080 $2,169 44¢ $2.2K +$48 10-20 14:21
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? Yes +3,207 $1,961 68¢ $2.2K +$236 10-22 15:53
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +2,524 $1,854 85¢ $2.1K +$280 10-26 17:59
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +2,503 $2,047 84¢ $2.1K +$58 10-25 13:38
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +2,120 $742 99¢ $2.1K +$1,354 10-23 14:17
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No +2,121 $1,900 98¢ $2.1K +$177 10-19 19:13
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No +2,100 $1,808 96¢ $2.0K +$212 10-02 15:42
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes +2,053 $1,702 97¢ $2.0K +$292 10-25 07:10
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +2,271 $1,866 84¢ $1.9K +$53 10-24 22:31
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +4,311 $2,264 44¢ $1.9K -$365 10-26 09:49
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +1,960 $1,579 96¢ $1.9K +$293 10-25 21:55
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? Yes +2,010 $1,502 93¢ $1.9K +$367 10-26 11:18
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +2,256 $1,580 82¢ $1.9K +$281 10-17 07:39
Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No +1,858 $1,753 97¢ $1.8K +$49 10-21 09:53
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No +1,850 $1,660 96¢ $1.8K +$109 10-20 18:57