Damp-Equation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$40

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

79.6%

Resolved

1,173

Trades

4,553

lifetime

Volume

$7.10K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-14

last 10-21 14:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 86 days

Categories

Crypto

93% 71% +$117

Other

5% 56% -$33

Sports

2% 55% -$44

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 45 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	+1	$1	96¢	$1	+$0	06-07 22:02
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	+10	$0	4¢	$0	+$0	06-18 13:07
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+10	$3	3¢	$0	-$3	09-14 19:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	40	$61	3,542	1,455	+2,087	No	-$31	06-15 22:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	3	$57	38	28	+10	Down	+$5	05-26 11:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	5	$48	28	28	+0	Up	+$6	05-26 10:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	1	$43	43	0	+43	Down	+$0	05-26 11:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	5	$42	54	45	+9	Up	+$3	05-29 21:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	5	$42	53	14	+38	Up	+$0	05-26 15:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	4	$40	43	0	+43	Down	+$3	05-26 14:59
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	21	$40	218	218	+0	No	-$4	06-24 17:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	5	$37	48	0	+48	Up	+$11	05-26 18:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	7	$37	20	20	+0	Up	+$3	05-26 11:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	9	$33	28	14	+14	Up	-$9	06-13 22:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	1	$31	43	0	+43	Down	+$12	05-26 11:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	2	$28	31	0	+31	Up	+$3	05-26 11:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	8	$28	44	0	+44	Down	+$16	05-26 14:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	2	$26	28	0	+28	Up	+$2	05-26 11:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	1	$25	30	0	+30	Up	-$25	05-29 18:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	2	$25	26	0	+26	Down	-$25	05-28 15:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	8	$25	27	0	+27	Down	+$2	05-29 20:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	15	$25	28	0	+28	Down	+$3	05-25 07:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	10	$25	20	13	+7	Up	-$1	05-29 20:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	6	$24	25	0	+25	Up	+$1	05-26 19:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	8	$23	19	9	+10	Down	+$4	06-02 13:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	9	$23	26	0	+26	Up	+$3	05-29 20:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	9	$23	24	0	+24	Up	+$1	05-26 19:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	23	$23	30	0	+30	Down	+$7	05-24 14:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-15 11:25 UTC	8	$23	17	8	+8	Down	+$1	06-15 11:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	3	$22	18	18	+0	Up	+$8	05-29 09:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	11	$22	16	12	+5	Up	+$3	05-25 18:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	10	$22	27	0	+27	Up	+$5	05-26 19:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	3	$22	22	0	+22	Up	+$0	05-26 18:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 14:46:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x9d0563…
10-21 14:42:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xbbbb2b…
10-21 14:42:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x6591f0…
10-21 14:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xd2d026…
10-21 14:33:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x99fe29…
10-21 14:32:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x50ffb8…
10-21 14:29:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xe8a337…
10-21 14:23:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x353d3d…
10-21 14:22:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x7df30d…
10-21 14:21:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x850076…
10-21 14:21:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xb0a07d…
10-21 14:21:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x90ad8b…
10-21 14:19:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe8da03…
10-21 14:19:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x19b449…
10-21 14:18:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xc1d620…
10-21 14:18:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xb2b9f9…
10-21 14:18:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xa2234e…
10-21 14:18:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xe88151…
10-21 14:18:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x9f90f0…
09-28 22:06:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 22:05 UTC	Down	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x6d2988…
09-28 22:03:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 22:00 UTC	Down	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0xea4079…
09-28 21:58:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 21:55 UTC	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x4b030a…
09-28 21:58:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 21:55 UTC	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x1c6be5…
09-28 21:53:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0x461038…
09-28 21:52:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 21:50 UTC	Down	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xb5dd22…
09-28 21:10:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-28 21:10 UTC	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x6e4d01…
09-20 20:37:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xe20986…
09-20 20:37:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xb25768…
09-20 20:37:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x226d05…
09-20 20:37:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xef1ac4…
09-20 20:36:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x630ef2…
09-14 20:52:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 20:50 UTC	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xbc9e24…
09-14 19:58:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 19:55 UTC	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xb06fec…
09-14 19:53:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 19:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x6d7a66…
09-14 19:53:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 19:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x81b859…
09-14 19:34:30	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x62d0d8…
09-14 11:58:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 11:55 UTC	Up	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xc500b8…
09-14 11:53:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 11:50 UTC	Down	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x0fa47e…
09-14 11:53:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 11:50 UTC	Down	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x0a90c5…
09-13 19:23:52	Will PAOK Thessaloniki win on 2026-09-13?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x4510d1…
09-13 19:12:55	Will PAOK Thessaloniki win on 2026-09-13?	Yes	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0xf96c78…
09-13 19:07:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x32ad81…
09-13 19:07:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xbce8c0…
09-13 19:06:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x8d37b7…
09-13 19:06:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xe38ba7…
09-13 19:06:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xf52055…
09-09 19:46:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xb5fa6d…
09-09 19:44:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x7db5f8…
09-06 22:08:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x18f975…
09-06 21:59:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x5b1ad1…
09-06 21:58:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	SELL	9	54¢	$5	0xeee513…
09-06 21:57:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xb87d5c…
09-06 21:56:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xf181b2…
09-06 21:56:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x4669a3…
09-06 21:54:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x2b0d2c…
09-06 21:54:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x69c7fa…
09-06 21:53:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x7a4951…
09-06 21:53:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x127b7f…
09-06 21:52:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x616053…
09-06 21:52:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x26cf03…
09-06 21:51:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x8cf421…
08-31 21:09:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 21:05 UTC	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xf17708…
08-31 21:08:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 21:05 UTC	Down	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x036e83…
08-31 21:08:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 21:05 UTC	Down	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xba5690…
08-23 21:46:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xb84446…
08-20 21:40:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 21:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x19fc60…
08-19 21:49:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 21:45 UTC	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x6222e0…
08-19 21:48:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 21:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x1c8427…
08-19 21:43:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 21:40 UTC	Up	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0x34cbfc…
08-19 21:37:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 21:35 UTC	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xd9ff6e…
08-19 21:36:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 21:35 UTC	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x18ac3a…
08-19 21:36:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 21:35 UTC	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x6a8510…
08-19 21:32:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 21:30 UTC	Up	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0xe4bafb…
08-19 21:32:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 21:30 UTC	Up	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0x9e1181…
08-19 21:29:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 21:25 UTC	Up	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xc41c02…
08-19 21:28:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 21:25 UTC	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x1633c6…
08-19 21:27:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 21:25 UTC	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x880cf2…
08-19 21:24:07	cs2 furia aur1 2026 08 19	FURIA	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x68b8df…
08-19 20:41:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 20:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x859d1c…
08-19 20:26:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 20:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x073d06…
08-19 19:39:18	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Málaga CF: Draw at halftime?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x07b26e…
08-19 19:29:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 19:25 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x994363…
08-19 19:27:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 19:25 UTC	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xe04ce4…
08-19 19:26:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 19:25 UTC	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x73e409…
08-19 18:47:40	cs2 hon1 bw 2026 08 19	Bushido Wildcats	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xdae876…
08-19 18:44:51	cs2 furia aur1 2026 08 19	FURIA	BUY	4	85¢	$3	0xaa5c95…
08-19 18:28:48	cs2 furia aur1 2026 08 19	FURIA	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x6251d1…
08-19 16:13:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 16:10 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2261e2…
08-19 16:07:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 16:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xccd3a7…
08-19 16:07:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 16:05 UTC	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x6992cb…
08-19 16:07:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 16:05 UTC	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x2d11f6…
08-19 15:26:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 15:25 UTC	Up	BUY	3	86¢	$3	0xa36bf7…
08-19 15:07:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 15:05 UTC	Up	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x08ef72…
08-19 15:06:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 15:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x0b5919…
08-19 15:03:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 15:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x610dd6…
08-19 15:03:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 15:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xb9e055…
08-19 15:03:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 15:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x79bd0f…
08-19 15:03:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 15:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x6dcc3a…
08-19 15:02:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 15:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x74e93e…
08-19 15:02:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 15:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x6930c8…