Near-Failure — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$217.7K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

60.9%

Resolved

50,925

Trades

480,998

lifetime

Volume

$11.3M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-06

last 10-22 01:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 200 days

Categories

Other

90% 48% -$208,325

Crypto

7% 39% -$22,006

Sports

2% 48% +$12,362

Politics

0% 86% +$305

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

78 active days in 12wk • peak 8000 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	376	$32.6K	35,663	16,627	+19,035	Knicks	+$7,984	06-11 03:34
cs2 navi fal2 2026 06 14	319	$25.0K	42,310	2,967	+39,343	Team Falcons	-$160	06-14 21:57
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	199	$24.9K	15,310	15,310	+0	No	+$5,368	06-23 22:00
fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team to advance	329	$22.7K	29,059	7,742	+21,318	Argentina	+$3,450	07-04 00:44
Will CF América win on 2026-07-18?	251	$22.5K	14,856	14,856	+0	Yes	+$6,942	07-19 05:13
fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	344	$22.3K	36,111	600	+35,511	England	-$7,170	07-06 03:05
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo?	271	$22.2K	19,142	11,564	+7,578	Yes	+$4,686	06-24 03:58
crint nzl6 lka3 2026 06 16	216	$21.5K	22,355	12,677	+9,678	Sri Lanka	+$8,692	06-16 16:45
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	392	$20.7K	39,039	0	+39,039	Argentina	+$2,127	07-07 17:56
lol blg dk 2026 07 17	220	$20.3K	26,477	5,660	+20,817	Dplus KIA	+$312	07-17 16:17
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	206	$18.1K	11,247	10,347	+900	Yes	+$2,816	06-22 18:59
cs2 bca og1 2026 06 24	476	$17.6K	21,080	7,688	+13,391	Betclic Apogee Esports	+$4,305	06-24 22:21
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-07-22?	162	$17.5K	11,246	10,380	+866	Yes	+$3,459	07-23 04:09
lol ns t1 2026 08 03	133	$17.1K	14,510	9,924	+4,587	Nongshim Red Force	+$2,685	08-03 12:49
fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	347	$17.0K	25,023	0	+25,023	Paraguay	-$13,040	06-29 23:18
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-07-25?	281	$16.7K	15,808	7,327	+8,481	Yes	+$2,087	07-26 01:42
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	186	$16.4K	11,239	10,355	+884	Yes	+$4,576	06-25 02:47
crint wst4 sco5 2026 06 18	183	$16.3K	16,820	8,417	+8,403	West Indies	+$3,105	06-18 20:52
fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	213	$16.3K	20,004	8,171	+11,833	Argentina	+$5,843	07-15 21:01
cs2 b8 gl1 2026 06 07	256	$16.1K	30,153	6,310	+23,843	B8	+$8,401	06-07 19:07
fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 spread home 4pt5	343	$15.8K	13,769	8,686	+5,083	Portugal	+$4,140	06-23 18:59
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Bangalore	98	$15.2K	19,448	4,168	+15,281	Lucknow Super Giants	+$754	05-07 19:18
Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-08-04?	185	$15.1K	10,955	7,137	+3,818	Yes	+$1,054	08-05 01:13
lol edg nip 2026 08 28 game2	108	$14.9K	10,748	8,072	+2,676	Ninjas in Pyjamas	+$1,257	08-28 07:43
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia?	132	$14.8K	10,074	9,798	+276	Yes	+$4,737	06-24 00:54
fifwc tun jpn 2026 06 21 spread away 3pt5	252	$14.8K	10,923	10,319	+603	Japan	+$6,168	06-21 06:06
cs2 ts7 g2 2026 06 19	194	$14.7K	18,717	4,502	+14,216	Spirit	+$1,433	06-19 18:57
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Belgium?	112	$14.4K	8,895	8,068	+827	Yes	+$1,582	07-10 20:59
fifwc tun jpn 2026 06 21 team total away 2pt5	136	$13.8K	8,787	8,787	+0	Over	+$3,571	06-21 05:29
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Norway?	112	$13.6K	8,989	8,089	+900	Yes	+$2,866	06-30 18:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 01:08:48	Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-09-05?	Yes	SELL	739	100¢	$738	0x7297f0…
10-21 11:49:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x9169aa…
10-21 11:47:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xce13dc…
10-21 11:38:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0xe78515…
10-21 11:38:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x3852ec…
10-21 11:38:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xd77210…
10-21 10:25:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x0b3376…
10-21 10:24:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xe53805…
10-21 10:24:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	32¢	$1	0x8a0a99…
10-21 10:24:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xbf60a3…
10-21 09:54:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x88e618…
10-21 09:53:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xe80866…
10-21 09:48:42	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xa3a02b…
10-21 09:41:00	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xb77c74…
10-21 09:38:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0x61ac6c…
10-21 09:38:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x0f1e86…
10-21 09:37:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x1c4aac…
10-21 08:21:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x37f190…
10-21 08:20:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	27¢	$1	0x8b1800…
10-21 08:20:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	27¢	$0	0x6619c7…
10-21 08:19:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x1ac40c…
10-21 08:19:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	17¢	$1	0x2b08b6…
10-21 08:17:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x9dd770…
10-21 08:17:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x50f69c…
10-21 08:16:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x892260…
10-21 08:09:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0xf22db0…
10-21 07:54:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x8fa8cb…
10-21 07:53:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xdcde50…
10-21 07:51:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x3ca885…
10-21 07:40:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x55e8a4…
10-21 07:38:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xa99f04…
10-21 07:37:42	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xc6502a…
10-21 07:37:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0xa2be71…
10-21 07:37:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0xe8ed9d…
10-21 07:32:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x9a8fae…
10-21 06:18:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xdbad4e…
10-21 06:18:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xcb4dec…
10-21 06:16:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x77d70c…
10-21 06:16:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x029451…
10-21 06:10:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x4787c2…
10-21 06:08:47	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x316b0d…
10-21 05:38:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x32abe3…
10-21 05:04:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xf39c2b…
10-21 04:55:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x937227…
10-21 04:55:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xf35a6d…
10-21 04:55:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	0	20¢	$0	0xefb39f…
10-21 04:55:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xd0f001…
10-21 04:55:32	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xa9a55d…
10-21 04:55:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x037f3c…
10-21 04:37:00	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x34b309…
10-21 04:34:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	9	24¢	$2	0x2bb38f…
10-21 04:34:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0xfced4d…
10-21 04:02:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0xd488fd…
10-21 04:02:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0x6ca851…
10-21 04:01:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x824a33…
10-21 03:56:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x37cb29…
10-21 03:56:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	19¢	$1	0x399cff…
10-21 03:56:51	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	19¢	$0	0x5196eb…
10-21 03:56:47	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xa76dd1…
10-21 03:56:38	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x39d5bc…
10-21 03:51:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xe6045b…
10-21 03:48:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	18¢	$1	0x87542d…
10-21 03:48:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x9c6a69…
10-21 03:47:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x8e349b…
10-21 03:39:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0xf76be2…
10-21 03:39:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	34¢	$0	0xda66f9…
10-21 03:19:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xea9937…
10-21 03:19:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x1e7051…
10-21 03:19:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xc30be4…
10-21 03:18:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x5c468b…
10-21 03:16:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x62d84a…
10-21 01:23:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xea5887…
10-21 01:23:26	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	13¢	$1	0xf2205d…
10-21 01:22:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x111296…
10-21 00:56:38	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x054879…
10-21 00:56:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0xab5a09…
10-21 00:56:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x206858…
10-21 00:55:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x712871…
10-21 00:55:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x9349ec…
10-21 00:11:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xca8c40…
10-21 00:11:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	81¢	$4	0x6938e7…
10-21 00:02:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xda7689…
10-20 23:52:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xb3b39e…
10-20 23:52:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x240149…
10-20 23:51:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0xba77bc…
10-20 23:51:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x52defd…
10-20 23:47:32	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x16faa4…
10-20 23:47:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x00d524…
10-20 22:40:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xcf14b5…
10-20 22:39:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xf5955f…
10-20 22:39:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x2a21f4…
10-20 22:38:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x26c0d9…
10-20 22:37:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x9a253f…
10-20 22:17:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xc0a40c…
10-20 22:17:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x09835f…
10-20 22:03:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x2fdfa0…
10-20 20:26:57	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xd94d47…
10-20 20:26:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0x55a8e3…
10-20 20:26:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xde49e1…
10-20 20:18:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	24¢	$1	0x1006f6…