Disastrous-Agency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$50

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.9%

Resolved

114

Trades

140

lifetime

Volume

$1.98K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 10-29 13:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 41 days

Categories

Politics

44% 100% +$47

Other

39% 96% +$2

Crypto

13% 100% +$1

Tech

4% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	4	$402	204	204	+0	open	—	10-29 13:19
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	2	$102	53	53	+0	Yes	+$0	10-04 02:58
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$99	108	51	+57	Yes	+$44	10-17 21:22
LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	2	$97	49	49	+0	Yes	+$0	09-10 10:56
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	2	$97	49	49	+0	No	+$0	09-07 13:03
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	2	$90	45	45	+0	No	+$0	08-14 10:46
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$82	43	43	+0	No	+$0	08-26 16:38
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	4	$79	51	29	+22	No	+$1	10-01 06:05
Will Ilham Tohti win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	1	$52	52	0	+52	No	+$0	10-09 08:57
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	1	$49	49	0	+49	Yes	+$0	09-16 00:03
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$49	49	0	+49	No	+$0	09-14 16:52
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	2	$48	49	0	+49	No	+$1	08-05 12:58
Will XRP reach $2.80 in September?	2	$47	23	23	+0	No	+$0	09-29 06:49
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$45	46	0	+46	No	+$0	08-15 18:22
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	1	$45	45	0	+45	No	+$0	08-14 19:40
will xi jinping visit us by september 23	1	$43	43	0	+43	Yes	+$0	09-23 11:25
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$43	44	0	+44	No	+$0	08-22 01:22
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	1	$43	43	0	+43	No	+$0	08-27 17:43
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	1	$35	36	0	+36	No	+$0	07-30 10:05
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	2	$30	49	49	+0	open	—	10-14 04:43
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	2	$28	14	14	+0	No	+$0	10-01 00:06
will ethereum dip to 1800 in march 2026	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	03-31 05:22
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$22	22	0	+22	No	+$0	08-18 15:31
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?	1	$17	17	0	+17	No	+$0	06-29 01:58
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	1	$15	16	0	+16	Yes	+$0	04-29 12:01
will openai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	02-25 01:36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September?	2	$13	7	7	+0	No	+$0	09-30 01:48
will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	01-23 21:56
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	2	$12	6	6	+0	No	+$0	09-29 06:54
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June?	1	$11	11	0	+11	No	+$0	06-26 14:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 13:19:25	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	104	100¢	$103	0x80fd76…
10-29 03:18:04	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	104	99¢	$102	0xdac2d3…
10-28 06:21:19	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$100	0x68a950…
10-27 19:07:45	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$97	0x4d076b…
10-17 21:22:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	57	23¢	$13	0x5b4e79…
10-14 04:43:17	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	49	31¢	$15	0xdbbe8a…
10-12 09:21:55	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	49	30¢	$15	0x36d467…
10-09 08:57:13	Will Ilham Tohti win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	52	99¢	$52	0x5852fb…
10-05 10:50:50	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	51	84¢	$43	0x18b815…
10-05 04:14:44	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	51	83¢	$42	0x2f9284…
10-04 02:58:55	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	SELL	53	97¢	$51	0x9367de…
10-02 02:25:30	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	53	96¢	$51	0xf4a107…
10-01 06:05:47	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0xca88c7…
10-01 02:15:23	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xb8c1f6…
10-01 00:06:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x6dc903…
09-30 16:51:17	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x812d1c…
09-30 01:48:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xc3713a…
09-29 14:01:47	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	29	96¢	$28	0x625b49…
09-29 06:54:27	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x5c7c6f…
09-29 06:49:59	Will XRP reach $2.80 in September?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x41d00a…
09-29 04:34:02	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	97¢	$14	0x710ac0…
09-27 15:57:54	Will XRP reach $2.80 in September?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x2dcb3b…
09-26 12:00:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$6	0x96eef9…
09-23 11:25:53	will xi jinping visit us by september 23	Yes	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0x0a88fe…
09-23 00:07:34	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xfed0aa…
09-16 00:03:39	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0x801055…
09-14 16:52:07	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0x77e719…
09-10 10:56:09	LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	49	100¢	$49	0xd371d5…
09-09 19:39:52	LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0x2d519a…
09-07 13:03:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	49	100¢	$48	0xc72ac7…
09-05 08:44:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	49	99¢	$48	0x2adf91…
08-27 17:43:46	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0x177149…
08-26 16:38:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	43	96¢	$41	0x71f971…
08-25 08:28:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	43	96¢	$41	0xc39842…
08-23 20:35:39	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	0¢	$0	0x9f610d…
08-23 07:10:12	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xfe9043…
08-22 01:22:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	44	100¢	$43	0x347b92…
08-18 15:31:07	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xe7b79b…
08-17 13:09:54	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x82d17e…
08-16 21:48:51	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xb41230…
08-15 18:22:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	46	99¢	$45	0x20d104…
08-14 19:40:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x60f576…
08-14 10:46:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	45	100¢	$45	0xc7e5f5…
08-10 03:11:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xb8524a…
08-07 08:51:04	will wti reach 140 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x0abe4d…
08-06 07:44:41	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x803d80…
08-05 12:58:50	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x508d5f…
08-04 19:24:14	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$40	0x9926fb…
08-01 01:25:35	will ethereum dip to 1700 in july 2026 from july 6	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbfdbbf…
07-30 10:05:09	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	36	99¢	$35	0x443900…
07-29 15:21:56	will nvda reach 224 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3c1179…
07-28 01:58:51	will xagusd reach 70 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x128c82…
07-27 20:18:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x94f665…
07-26 01:55:21	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x226941…
07-24 10:41:39	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528 175	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x111a12…
07-24 03:20:24	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x059543…
07-21 11:08:48	will bitcoin dip to 50k in july 2026 812	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf1fe0c…
07-17 13:20:07	will ethereum reach 2500 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xadbf64…
07-09 16:00:31	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x51178d…
06-29 14:37:41	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x633cf4…
06-29 11:23:49	will ng dip to 3 00 in june 2026	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x3b44b8…
06-29 01:58:47	Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xac6b11…
06-27 22:11:37	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x497d8a…
06-26 14:09:19	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x9de9c6…
05-30 17:48:33	Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x1819b0…
05-29 01:16:56	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xf80a9e…
05-26 10:04:10	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x792b42…
05-22 15:20:06	Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xa6172a…
05-15 11:06:30	Will Germany be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x40c96d…
05-10 22:33:12	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x5a9fe4…
05-10 11:09:56	Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9fb830…
05-09 21:27:56	Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x39cb40…
05-09 15:59:43	Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x3aea6a…
05-09 09:20:59	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xa9e14b…
05-08 20:54:56	Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x702f7e…
05-08 17:59:07	Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xc55e38…
05-08 15:02:12	Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x000e58…
05-08 04:37:22	Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xcee9b2…
05-07 11:55:59	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb07989…
05-06 03:01:54	Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa543a0…
05-06 00:36:42	Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xaeefb8…
05-05 06:53:26	Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3b03bc…
04-29 12:01:28	Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	16	99¢	$15	0xcd5034…
04-27 06:28:50	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x796dd2…
04-26 16:20:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x9c1ed7…
04-25 03:10:40	Will XRP reach $2.80 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x381bac…
04-23 09:06:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x3d5da6…
04-21 10:51:50	Will XRP reach $3.00 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x3fc0b7…
04-20 23:59:56	Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb01339…
04-19 06:39:18	Will XRP reach $2.20 in April?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$3	0x60accd…
04-18 06:40:04	Will Solana reach $160 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xdea369…
04-17 16:52:52	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $200 end of April?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x73a3f0…
04-16 04:08:50	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x24098c…
04-13 08:38:33	Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x07e178…
03-31 05:22:03	will ethereum dip to 1800 in march 2026	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x7f5fce…
03-28 19:21:20	will dogecoin reach 0pt2 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3ca095…
03-28 18:10:31	nflx above 180 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xeb94f8…
03-27 04:33:57	will xai have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x68a62c…
03-25 17:58:33	will chainlink dip to 2 in march	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x512f87…
03-24 04:08:19	will nvidia be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0d3085…