Warlike-Mound — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$124

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

50.3%

Resolved

10,260

Trades

22,426

lifetime

Volume

$72.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$55

11 positions

First seen

2026-04-04

last 11-15 16:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 190 days

Categories

Crypto

85% 71% +$1,126

Other

10% 24% -$821

Politics

3% 28% -$99

Tech

1% 21% -$67

Sports

0% 25% -$6

Pop-Culture

0% 50% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

79 active days in 12wk • peak 69 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Ventuals FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes		+1,076	$17	2¢	$20	+$3	11-09 14:06
Will Teddy Riner win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes		+500	$12	2¢	$11	$0	11-10 11:24
Felix Protocol FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	—	+600	$16	1¢	$8	-$9	11-15 16:59
Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes		+315	$6	2¢	$5	-$1	11-12 17:21
StandX FDV above $5B one day after launch?	Yes		+234	$2	2¢	$4	+$1	10-21 13:51
Felix Protocol FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes		+149	$6	1¢	$2	-$4	10-31 00:59
StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch?	Yes		+188	-$4	1¢	$2	+$6	10-15 06:23
Ostium FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes		+103	$4	2¢	$2	-$2	11-12 17:21
Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes		+30	$2	4¢	$1	-$1	11-15 07:58
StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	Yes		+86	$1	1¢	$1	-$1	07-31 02:17
Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes		+32	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	07-22 14:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Desire Doue finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	1	$635	639	0	+639	No	+$4	09-09 09:12
Will Rodrygo finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	1	$603	607	0	+607	No	+$5	09-09 09:08
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	21	$493	1,663	1,663	+0	open	—	11-09 18:02
Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.4–0.6%?	3	$330	180	180	+0	Yes	+$5	08-13 01:08
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	20	$254	230	230	+0	No	-$19	08-07 17:03
will team vitality make a roster change before september 20260623151753357	29	$202	1,373	1,373	+0	No	+$58	08-08 11:08
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	5	$197	131	131	+0	Yes	-$4	07-26 11:18
will trump be said 10 times during the next episode of the storytime with the second lady podcast 20260625203401067	34	$196	1,362	1,357	+5	No	+$19	07-03 13:54
LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?	1	$190	200	0	+200	Yes	+$10	09-10 13:53
will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	8	$181	541	541	+0	No	-$14	07-13 11:44
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	9	$159	482	482	+0	open	—	07-17 23:27
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	12	$143	111	111	+0	Yes	-$15	08-29 10:18
will drake attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630272	8	$136	121	121	+0	No	-$11	08-05 09:34
Will Tadej Pogačar be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?	9	$134	111	111	+0	No	-$5	07-24 07:17
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?	19	$134	123	163	-40	Yes	-$1	06-12 22:06
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	9	$126	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	-$6	10-20 17:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	3	$108	9,905	5	+9,900	Down	-$98	05-08 12:00
will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	13	$105	1,136	1,136	+0	No	+$3	07-05 22:32
Will Jasper Philipsen be awarded the Green Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?	8	$104	211	159	+52	No	+$8	07-24 06:26
will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	36	$101	118	118	+0	Yes	-$4	06-20 00:14
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 1?	3	$99	110	0	+110	Yes	+$11	06-01 15:40
Will Taylor Brown come in third-place on Big Brother season 28?	54	$98	816	816	+0	No	-$1	09-05 16:28
iran successfully targets shipping by june 27 20260625215135368	15	$96	144	144	+0	Yes	-$7	06-26 14:54
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	9	$94	94	94	+0	No	+$5	08-01 19:45
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on July 11?	8	$94	138	138	+0	Yes	-$6	07-09 22:30
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 28?	13	$91	70	69	+1	No	-$7	07-27 23:49
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 29?	1	$86	101	0	+101	Yes	+$14	07-29 15:00
Will John Stanton buy the Seattle Seahawks?	16	$85	3,079	180	+2,900	No	-$58	07-12 19:04
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	29	$84	1,185	1,185	+0	No	-$1	07-07 15:19
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?	6	$80	82	82	+0	No	-$3	07-28 19:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-15 16:59:26	Felix Protocol FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	48	1¢	$0	0xc233a0…
11-15 16:59:22	Felix Protocol FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0x35ef84…
11-15 16:59:20	Felix Protocol FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	69	1¢	$0	0x276790…
11-15 16:59:19	Felix Protocol FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xe9b029…
11-15 16:59:19	Felix Protocol FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x26df34…
11-15 07:58:52	Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	76	3¢	$2	0xaf1bbc…
11-12 17:21:48	Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	172	2¢	$3	0x9c6878…
11-12 17:21:31	Ostium FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	52	2¢	$1	0xbbbc68…
11-10 11:24:31	Will Teddy Riner win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	110	2¢	$3	0x0be70f…
11-10 10:52:33	Will Teddy Riner win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	130	2¢	$3	0x64463e…
11-10 10:40:34	Will Teddy Riner win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	130	2¢	$3	0xd77bd3…
11-10 10:39:31	Will Teddy Riner win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	130	2¢	$3	0x64f806…
11-09 23:47:39	Will Andrey Rublev Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x2eaf42…
11-09 18:02:18	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	508	9¢	$46	0x23e6a7…
11-09 16:05:19	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	40	8¢	$3	0xd004a1…
11-09 16:02:16	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	95	8¢	$8	0x46bf39…
11-09 16:02:12	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0x17b2cc…
11-09 16:02:10	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x91faec…
11-09 16:02:10	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	36	8¢	$3	0x10f630…
11-09 16:02:04	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	65	8¢	$5	0xe705e2…
11-09 14:13:48	Makina FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	424	2¢	$7	0x4bd089…
11-09 14:06:55	Ventuals FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	240	1¢	$3	0x7317ce…
11-09 13:54:30	Will Andrey Rublev Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0xedd39a…
11-09 13:53:16	Will Joao Fonseca Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x9223c5…
11-09 13:52:48	Will Jiri Lehecka Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x72abd4…
11-08 23:04:40	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	144	9¢	$13	0x2f1fa3…
11-08 20:28:01	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	9	9¢	$1	0x85f52f…
11-08 19:49:00	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x5b2b5d…
11-08 18:15:07	Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xb518bb…
11-08 18:01:48	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	301	9¢	$27	0x95562d…
11-08 18:01:40	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	302	9¢	$27	0xc6be6d…
11-04 16:19:22	Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	36	2¢	$1	0xa4166f…
11-04 15:56:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x05b3f5…
11-04 15:41:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xf066ea…
11-04 15:35:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xb455b0…
11-04 15:25:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x1fb520…
11-04 15:20:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x140c90…
11-04 14:56:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xf3ad7b…
11-04 14:45:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x7eb9eb…
11-04 14:38:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x967516…
11-04 13:08:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x22cf86…
11-04 12:53:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x5153cd…
11-04 12:46:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x7eb436…
11-04 11:47:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x0ec09e…
11-04 11:38:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xce1b64…
11-04 10:15:01	Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0x1bdd69…
11-04 09:13:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x24afa2…
11-04 08:18:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x5ca35a…
11-04 07:19:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x0c3500…
11-04 02:23:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xd076df…
11-04 01:37:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xa2bb96…
11-04 01:08:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x4758e1…
11-04 00:44:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x74095b…
11-04 00:44:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0x47f615…
11-03 23:36:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x25bb34…
11-03 21:21:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x56f51c…
11-03 21:17:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x902953…
11-03 21:02:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xd21672…
11-03 20:02:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x6a731e…
11-03 19:37:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$0	0xffe170…
11-03 18:24:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0xdde69b…
11-03 16:02:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x513932…
11-03 15:53:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x8a5f56…
11-03 15:37:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x0ea49c…
11-03 15:30:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x7a1443…
11-03 15:11:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x45eaa4…
11-03 15:05:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xfd0a5c…
11-03 15:04:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xd50dc7…
11-03 14:58:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x1e6520…
11-03 14:47:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x485619…
11-03 14:35:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xdf68f9…
11-03 14:24:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xf5d9ac…
11-03 14:23:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	57¢	$1	0x18234a…
11-03 14:15:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xcef692…
11-03 13:37:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x636ceb…
11-03 13:30:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x4b2ce5…
11-03 12:36:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xc1a926…
11-03 12:34:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x15bff8…
11-03 12:26:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x5077ff…
11-03 10:32:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x50e0d9…
11-03 10:27:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x5202db…
11-03 08:08:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xc356be…
11-03 03:01:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x50cd87…
11-03 02:42:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x2ae633…
11-03 02:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x1bb931…
11-03 02:33:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x6c8561…
11-03 02:12:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x7f094a…
11-03 01:52:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x79c7c0…
11-03 01:47:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	3	54¢	$2	0xad05ae…
11-03 01:47:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x51c478…
11-03 01:18:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xff7e57…
11-03 00:58:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xde72d5…
11-03 00:53:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xe4d86f…
11-03 00:40:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x9b846f…
11-03 00:04:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x3dab06…
11-02 21:32:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xa42972…
11-02 20:43:04	Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	4	3¢	$0	0x841fd0…
11-02 20:43:03	Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0xa48168…
11-02 20:42:43	Ventuals FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	112	4¢	$5	0x226f19…
11-02 20:05:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x72622f…