Decisive-Watcher — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

20.1%

Resolved

Trades

228

lifetime

Volume

$8.54K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$37

Open exposure

$181

3 positions

First seen

2026-03-13

last 06-09 12:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

40% 0% —

Politics

40% — —

Sports

12% 50% +$0

Crypto

7% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	-115	$-113	98¢	$-113	+$0	05-30 15:28
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	No	+68	$67	99¢	$67	+$0	05-28 20:51
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	+1	$-0	76¢	$0	+$1	06-09 00:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	9	$564	233	348	-115	open	—	05-30 15:28
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	4	$459	233	233	+0	No	+$0	04-07 13:50
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	10	$445	696	696	+0	open	—	06-05 13:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	4	$428	343	343	+0	open	—	06-06 19:04
will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	5	$421	221	221	+0	open	—	03-17 07:18
Will Alberta join the US?	9	$408	214	214	+0	open	—	06-05 06:14
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	16	$380	868	868	+0	No	$-0	04-09 21:42
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	5	$288	180	112	+68	open	—	05-28 20:51
will cameron young win the 2026 masters tournament	6	$276	141	141	+0	open	—	03-15 02:16
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	5	$256	433	433	+0	open	—	05-31 03:18
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	7	$236	479	479	+0	open	—	05-16 15:58
Netanyahu out by April 30?	8	$235	508	508	+0	open	—	03-28 14:57
will matt fitzpatrick win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$222	114	114	+0	open	—	03-18 10:38
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	11	$217	576	576	+0	open	—	06-07 03:30
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	5	$216	299	299	+0	open	—	04-11 04:26
will russell henley win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$211	107	107	+0	open	—	03-15 22:40
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$211	107	107	+0	No	+$0	04-13 21:38
will annual inflation increase by 2pt8 in march	6	$206	181	181	+0	open	—	03-20 14:51
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	3	$206	149	149	+0	open	—	06-02 23:34
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	2	$205	105	105	+0	open	—	05-27 19:17
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	3	$204	136	135	+1	open	—	06-09 00:39
Iran leadership change by June 30?	3	$204	106	106	+0	open	—	06-07 09:41
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	3	$204	185	185	+0	open	—	06-05 20:06
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	3	$203	104	104	+0	open	—	06-08 18:29
will connecticut win the 2026 ncaa tournament	3	$202	104	104	+0	open	—	03-21 20:46
will bitcoin dip to 65k in march 2026	4	$202	146	146	+0	open	—	03-16 11:04
Iran leadership change by May 31?	3	$196	99	99	+0	open	—	05-28 07:26
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	9	$165	245	245	+0	open	—	05-18 15:10
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$123	64	64	+0	open	—	05-19 10:40
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	3	$120	184	184	+0	open	—	06-09 12:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 12:53:52	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	SELL	184	32¢	$59	0x01e25e…
06-09 11:48:19	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	BUY	125	33¢	$41	0x6a3df3…
06-09 11:48:18	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	BUY	59	33¢	$19	0xbc6fc9…
06-09 07:13:42	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	101	19¢	$19	0x888fdd…
06-09 05:42:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	101	19¢	$19	0xdf1b90…
06-09 00:39:51	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	76	75¢	$57	0x6b89ae…
06-09 00:39:15	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	59	76¢	$45	0x2e8471…
06-08 22:25:55	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	136	75¢	$102	0x8a6b42…
06-08 18:29:46	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	17	98¢	$17	0x7bf22d…
06-08 18:29:46	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	87	98¢	$85	0x5ea4fb…
06-08 15:20:06	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	104	98¢	$102	0xdfeaa4…
06-07 09:41:45	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0xcb7e58…
06-07 09:41:43	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	103	96¢	$99	0x205565…
06-07 08:20:39	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	106	96¢	$102	0xe1b228…
06-07 03:30:46	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	94	4¢	$3	0x9ee4eb…
06-07 03:30:46	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	169	4¢	$6	0x68b8ad…
06-07 03:30:46	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	38	4¢	$1	0x46d27a…
06-07 03:30:46	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	36	4¢	$1	0x3cb651…
06-07 02:03:18	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	337	4¢	$12	0x748f5b…
06-06 19:04:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	146	67¢	$98	0x150082…
06-06 17:26:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	146	67¢	$98	0x5ee2a4…
06-06 15:09:15	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	164	21¢	$34	0x8606df…
06-06 13:36:18	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	164	21¢	$34	0xedb30b…
06-06 10:34:55	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	12	3¢	$0	0x54a402…
06-06 10:34:48	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	32	3¢	$1	0x5426fd…
06-06 10:34:48	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	21	3¢	$1	0x38bdb1…
06-06 10:34:45	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	12	3¢	$0	0xcf9290…
06-06 10:34:43	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	57	3¢	$2	0xa2c732…
06-06 06:51:15	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	135	3¢	$4	0xe2fde5…
06-05 20:06:31	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	185	55¢	$102	0x229a46…
06-05 16:02:37	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	56	55¢	$31	0xc2eeb8…
06-05 16:02:37	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	129	55¢	$71	0x431d08…
06-05 13:09:31	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	59	81¢	$48	0x7c5229…
06-05 13:09:31	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	62	81¢	$50	0x532332…
06-05 09:41:57	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	121	81¢	$98	0x4e19e2…
06-05 06:14:34	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	15	95¢	$14	0x8ec733…
06-05 06:14:34	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	86	95¢	$82	0x68199d…
06-05 06:14:34	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0x04348d…
06-05 02:34:55	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0xfeea91…
06-05 02:34:55	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	99	95¢	$94	0x951293…
06-04 23:48:18	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	95	98¢	$93	0x6d1e67…
06-04 19:22:37	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xd05cc5…
06-04 19:22:37	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	85	98¢	$83	0xc818c0…
06-03 15:45:34	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	143	22¢	$31	0xeded3f…
06-03 15:45:34	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	14	22¢	$3	0x4192c8…
06-03 15:45:34	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	71	22¢	$15	0x33db73…
06-03 13:09:19	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	228	22¢	$50	0x94a868…
06-02 23:34:24	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	149	69¢	$103	0x9e51ae…
06-02 19:39:04	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	8	69¢	$6	0x770e6d…
06-02 19:38:48	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	141	69¢	$97	0x481985…
06-02 15:38:59	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	26	96¢	$25	0x76b93f…
06-02 15:38:59	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	81	96¢	$78	0x33b86d…
06-02 12:13:24	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	55	96¢	$53	0x81d208…
06-02 12:13:24	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x7b9a6b…
06-02 01:11:55	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	83	19¢	$16	0x4b1519…
06-01 21:58:59	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	264	19¢	$51	0x924167…
06-01 20:47:32	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	347	24¢	$83	0x56c4e2…
06-01 17:19:22	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	13	2¢	$0	0x77c9de…
06-01 17:19:22	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	131	2¢	$3	0x3260ed…
06-01 14:29:54	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	144	2¢	$3	0x07af6f…
05-31 09:26:19	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	194	2¢	$4	0x3370db…
05-31 07:59:24	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	194	2¢	$5	0x74fc5f…
05-31 03:18:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0x590437…
05-31 03:18:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	109	94¢	$103	0x1a87ad…
05-31 00:11:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	120	94¢	$112	0x69ba78…
05-30 23:34:16	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	313	5¢	$16	0x9ca1e3…
05-30 19:28:41	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	313	4¢	$14	0x6be6ce…
05-30 15:28:33	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	35	97¢	$34	0xc85b04…
05-30 15:28:32	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	83	97¢	$81	0xede4e6…
05-30 11:34:03	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	118	97¢	$114	0xa9b182…
05-30 01:33:55	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	80	98¢	$79	0xb0e19c…
05-30 01:33:55	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x55916b…
05-29 18:27:34	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	17	98¢	$17	0xedc6c3…
05-29 18:27:34	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	91	98¢	$89	0xbd8a65…
05-29 18:27:34	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x927922…
05-29 16:22:00	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	115	96¢	$111	0x0a71c8…
05-29 04:20:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	197	59¢	$116	0x2931be…
05-29 04:19:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	197	59¢	$116	0x973f5f…
05-28 20:51:38	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	53	99¢	$52	0xdfdd88…
05-28 20:51:38	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x0f67c0…
05-28 18:24:40	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0xc76e72…
05-28 18:24:38	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	85	99¢	$84	0x51118e…
05-28 14:17:02	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	112	98¢	$110	0xd6843e…
05-28 07:26:57	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	87	99¢	$86	0x31a921…
05-28 07:26:57	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x2b57d1…
05-28 06:12:38	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	99	99¢	$98	0x6b2092…
05-28 04:35:36	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x868c16…
05-28 04:35:36	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	105	97¢	$101	0x673162…
05-27 19:17:23	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	105	99¢	$104	0xf46ff4…
05-27 16:58:10	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	105	97¢	$101	0xf42744…
05-22 23:56:00	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x5ceab6…
05-22 00:10:02	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	31	4¢	$1	0xedc382…
05-22 00:10:02	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	94	4¢	$3	0x02a8a9…
05-21 21:38:33	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	145	4¢	$6	0x8c43f3…
05-19 22:46:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	24	4¢	$1	0x1b91e3…
05-19 21:05:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	24	5¢	$1	0x3469d2…
05-19 10:40:12	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	64	96¢	$61	0x0e06c0…
05-19 07:01:23	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	64	96¢	$61	0x6c1824…
05-18 15:10:47	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0xfa4145…
05-18 15:10:47	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	63	96¢	$60	0x6359bb…