Beneficial-Shackle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

28.6%

Resolved

Trades

199

lifetime

Volume

$396

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-08

last 06-18 18:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

66% 100% +$1

Politics

32% 25% $-4

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

1% 0% $-2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes		+9	$2	14¢	$1	$-1	06-18 18:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	3	$9	9	5	+4	open	—	04-24 16:19
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	6	$8	30	18	+12	open	—	03-19 07:24
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	3	$7	9	3	+6	open	—	04-24 16:20
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	3	$6	22	0	+22	open	—	03-20 23:43
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	2	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	04-24 16:20
dbi quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 19 2026 neg0pt51	2	$4	10	0	+10	open	—	03-24 09:57
will luis fernando camacho win the 2026 santa cruz gubernatorial election 723	2	$4	8	0	+8	open	—	03-15 21:37
elon musk of tweets march 12 march 14 115 139	2	$4	9	0	+9	open	—	03-14 10:25
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	2	$4	10	0	+10	open	—	03-11 08:17
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	2	$4	12	0	+12	open	—	03-19 19:20
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	2	$4	8	0	+8	open	—	03-13 00:44
will russia capture all of rodynske by april 30	2	$4	9	0	+9	open	—	03-16 02:44
elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 65 89	2	$4	7	0	+7	open	—	04-09 08:19
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$4	7	0	+7	open	—	03-20 19:44
will russia capture sofiivka by march 31	2	$4	12	0	+12	open	—	03-13 01:03
will spd win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	2	$4	8	0	+8	open	—	03-12 08:36
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 240 259	2	$4	5	0	+5	open	—	04-07 23:56
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 220 239	2	$4	11	0	+11	open	—	04-09 00:17
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	2	$4	10	0	+10	open	—	04-24 18:22
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 300 319	2	$4	5	0	+5	open	—	04-14 09:33
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	2	$4	16	0	+16	open	—	04-25 08:10
elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 90 114	2	$4	18	0	+18	open	—	04-08 23:59
will the freedom movement gs win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 529	2	$4	6	0	+6	open	—	03-21 08:48
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	2	$4	10	0	+10	open	—	03-23 16:45
will tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	2	$4	12	0	+12	open	—	04-08 08:10
rh quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 01 2026 2pt22	2	$4	9	0	+9	open	—	03-24 18:45
elon musk of tweets march 14 march 16 65 89	2	$4	10	0	+10	open	—	03-14 01:18
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	2	$4	9	0	+9	open	—	03-20 06:13
will russia enter rai oleksandrivka by march 31 2026	2	$4	11	0	+11	open	—	03-11 16:37
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	2	$4	11	0	+11	open	—	03-19 10:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-18 18:44:07	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x8b18e2…
06-16 16:30:32	will warsh say balance sheet during june press conference 20260608181156659	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x0afeb4…
06-15 19:23:21	will coin dip to 157 50 by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xdb97e2…
06-15 00:30:34	will warsh say fed during june press conference 20260608181156656	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x17617d…
06-14 23:13:09	will warsh say downside during june press conference 20260608181156664	No	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x111dbb…
06-14 01:48:40	will warsh say groupthink or group think during june press conference 20260608181156670	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x3b1157…
06-12 07:31:00	will warsh say asymmetric during june press conference 20260608181156671	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xcf1c2d…
06-12 06:53:51	will warsh say asymmetric during june press conference 20260608181156671	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x05a635…
06-11 10:22:54	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xeb7981…
06-11 10:04:58	will shivon zilis be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212478	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x1a8713…
06-11 09:49:04	will brian bjelde be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212485	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xf3a5f6…
06-11 09:49:01	will brian bjelde be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212485	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x0cc57d…
05-31 22:45:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x4c73cb…
05-30 20:59:48	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x93006a…
05-30 08:41:02	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	BUY	9	21¢	$2	0x795754…
05-28 00:43:42	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28?	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xcab60b…
04-28 08:07:16	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 28?	Down	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x9e85b7…
04-28 00:06:20	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	No	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xc67369…
04-27 11:00:08	another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xc1fcff…
04-27 01:09:10	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x84797b…
04-27 00:20:54	Will Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral election?	No	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x8a9bc5…
04-26 18:58:54	Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?	Yes	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x2901cf…
04-26 16:25:26	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xd8ae78…
04-26 16:20:44	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–2.25 in April?	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x9f9f46…
04-26 10:58:54	Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	Yes	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x9f3270…
04-26 08:18:06	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x970e3b…
04-26 00:15:20	Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0xb41cea…
04-26 00:14:22	Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	No	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x5a8811…
04-25 18:44:12	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xd4a468…
04-25 08:10:10	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xdce22a…
04-25 08:10:08	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x719add…
04-24 18:22:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xc355e4…
04-24 18:22:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xf15534…
04-24 16:20:24	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x1be3b0…
04-24 16:20:12	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xe1d517…
04-24 16:19:58	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x1f7a4f…
04-24 11:18:28	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x583bc3…
04-24 10:21:54	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on April 24?	No	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x5fa6e2…
04-14 09:33:13	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 300 319	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xe67179…
04-14 09:33:11	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 300 319	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x359d28…
04-12 19:15:27	trump approval up or down this week 715	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xfef3b9…
04-12 11:59:23	nflx up or down on april 13 2026	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x8d965d…
04-12 10:16:05	Will Encore Medical not IPO before June 2026?	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xcad394…
04-12 02:06:43	coin up or down on april 13 2026	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xb3e990…
04-11 18:18:11	will abnb dip to 118 by april 13 2026	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xc6433d…
04-11 13:27:03	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 240 259	No	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x627d9d…
04-11 10:08:25	will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xe6c690…
04-11 05:11:47	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza finish with the second most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xfea9de…
04-11 01:50:59	will tisza win at least 100 seats	Yes	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x4e9f66…
04-10 17:22:01	will fidesz kdnp win 40 44 of the national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x377543…
04-10 01:12:49	msft up or down on april 10 2026	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xc2f823…
04-10 01:12:47	msft up or down on april 10 2026	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x754581…
04-10 01:11:59	trump declassifies new ufo files by april 30	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x0539f1…
04-10 00:59:39	will madison airs market cap be between 12pt5b and 13pt0b at market close on ipo day	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xdb4200…
04-10 00:59:37	will madison airs market cap be between 12pt5b and 13pt0b at market close on ipo day	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xea7f14…
04-10 00:32:33	will fidesz kdnp win at least 90 seats	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x8d6cb9…
04-09 17:08:41	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x88e963…
04-09 16:36:43	will bernard drainville be the next premier of quebec following the 2026 caq leadership elections	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xd9844c…
04-09 16:22:35	aapl up or down on april 10 2026	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x16c78a…
04-09 08:50:07	meta up or down on april 9 2026	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x25d8b5…
04-09 08:26:47	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 260 279	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x59694d…
04-09 08:19:23	elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 65 89	No	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xb9d83b…
04-09 08:19:21	elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 65 89	No	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x54139a…
04-09 08:03:43	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	No	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x116c0d…
04-09 00:45:13	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xabda7f…
04-09 00:17:31	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 220 239	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x0a3ce2…
04-09 00:17:29	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 220 239	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xf901c1…
04-09 00:08:13	elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 40 64	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x9004bd…
04-09 00:08:11	elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 40 64	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xc73ec8…
04-08 23:59:23	elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 90 114	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xc45464…
04-08 23:59:21	elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 90 114	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x4c817a…
04-08 16:24:23	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 240 259	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xa5a58e…
04-08 16:09:29	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 260 279	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x892ad2…
04-08 16:09:27	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 260 279	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x105949…
04-08 15:34:39	Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x68033d…
04-08 08:10:19	will tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	No	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xc98cb3…
04-08 08:00:13	will fideszkdnp win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x370bc1…
04-08 07:55:31	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xdd24bd…
04-07 23:56:59	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 240 259	No	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xbc35a6…
04-07 23:56:57	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 240 259	No	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x6b4703…
04-07 23:47:33	will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x6940cb…
04-07 23:42:37	will tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x7629ab…
04-07 15:38:51	will annual inflation increase by 3pt4 in march	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x302fb1…
04-07 15:38:49	will annual inflation increase by 3pt4 in march	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xef27b1…
04-07 15:29:13	will fidesz kdnp win at least 70 seats	Yes	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x92bab8…
04-07 07:38:41	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 260 279	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0xb16221…
04-07 07:38:37	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 260 279	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x73f640…
04-07 07:27:19	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x51db8b…
04-05 17:16:33	donald trump of truth social posts april 3 april 10 80 99	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x1222eb…
04-05 17:16:31	donald trump of truth social posts april 3 april 10 80 99	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xb5748a…
04-05 09:04:27	spx up or down on april 6 2026	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xaed971…
04-05 08:50:53	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 280 299	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x254858…
04-05 08:50:51	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 280 299	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x8e2428…
04-04 22:12:15	will the number of us flights delayed on april 4 be between 5000 and 5500	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x8da5db…
04-04 22:12:11	will the number of us flights delayed on april 4 be between 5000 and 5500	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x8cf0b7…
03-25 05:18:17	will tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in q1 2026	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xc6604a…
03-24 18:45:55	rh quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 01 2026 2pt22	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xfd81d6…
03-24 13:17:05	cag quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 01 2026 0pt4	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x0a1738…
03-24 09:57:39	dbi quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 19 2026 neg0pt51	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x77b0e5…
03-23 18:04:21	will tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in q1 2026	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x0b7084…