Illustrious-Pad — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$73

Unrealized P&L

-$10

Hit rate

69.9%

Resolved

247

Trades

613

lifetime

Volume

$17.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

$51

5 positions

First seen

2026-03-15

last 10-30 19:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 62 days

Categories

Politics

48% 42% +$231

Crypto

34% 50% +$295

Other

16% 17% -$422

Sports

2% 43% -$32

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 199 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	+53	$10	28¢	$14	+$4	10-29 04:00
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China before 2027?	Yes	+1,694	$23	1¢	$13	-$11	10-25 16:34
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	+23	$10	52¢	$12	+$2	10-29 04:01
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	-204	$2	6¢	$-11	-$13	10-22 15:33
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?	Yes	-432	-$8	0¢	$-1	+$7	07-29 13:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
military action against iran continues through march 31 2026	12	$1.4K	3,586	3,586	+0	Yes	+$221	03-31 09:00
Iran leadership change by April 30?	4	$842	718	718	+0	No	+$52	03-19 09:59
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	12	$772	1,561	561	+1,000	Yes	+$108	04-08 08:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	15	$594	636	636	+0	No	-$60	05-06 18:35
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	3	$461	402	402	+0	Yes	-$35	03-20 04:43
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$304	404	404	+0	No	+$7	03-22 21:35
military action against iran ends on march 31 2026	8	$284	4,151	4,151	+0	No	+$66	03-23 15:53
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	12	$264	528	732	-204	open	—	10-22 15:33
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	2	$235	128	128	+0	No	+$13	04-08 03:53
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	4	$233	311	243	+68	No	+$5	05-14 08:43
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	5	$216	260	260	+0	No	-$185	04-26 16:40
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	2	$210	280	280	+0	Yes	+$14	03-17 22:53
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	5	$204	172	172	+0	Yes	+$58	04-15 11:43
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	2	$201	530	530	+0	No	+$64	04-15 06:57
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$201	123	123	+0	No	+$1	04-09 03:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	7	$201	168	168	+0	Down	+$1	10-30 13:49
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	2	$200	222	222	+0	open	—	10-29 04:23
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	2	$190	333	333	+0	Yes	-$10	03-22 18:26
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	9	$189	149	149	+0	Yes	+$9	04-16 16:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	5	$187	149	149	+0	Up	+$37	10-30 13:59
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	5	$184	190	190	+0	No	-$11	04-16 13:04
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	5	$175	1,364	1,364	+0	open	—	05-21 05:06
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	2	$172	131	65	+65	No	+$5	04-13 17:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	6	$172	141	141	+0	Up	+$22	10-29 15:44
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	7	$171	449	449	+0	No	-$1	03-24 20:19
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	2	$167	108	108	+0	No	-$33	04-25 08:45
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	2	$166	106	106	+0	No	-$34	04-25 08:44
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?	2	$141	300	300	+0	No	-$99	03-26 10:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	4	$140	94	94	+0	Down	+$40	10-29 16:29
will mojtaba khamenei tweet again on march 17	2	$136	104	104	+0	No	+$36	03-17 22:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 19:57:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x039a0b…
10-30 19:36:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xa7c915…
10-30 16:43:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	SELL	40	95¢	$38	0x5d41be…
10-30 16:42:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0xc84997…
10-30 15:31:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x3af597…
10-30 14:52:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x69303c…
10-30 14:52:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	SELL	42	33¢	$14	0xe86c2e…
10-30 14:51:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0xf9f92d…
10-30 14:48:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	SELL	24	9¢	$2	0x4d16c5…
10-30 14:47:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x6a51cf…
10-30 14:47:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	SELL	29	36¢	$11	0xe0ddc0…
10-30 14:46:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xe3d8be…
10-30 14:44:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0x84acfa…
10-30 14:41:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xd2bc4f…
10-30 14:35:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	SELL	69	50¢	$35	0xcf1adb…
10-30 14:35:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	69	36¢	$25	0x4edf7f…
10-30 14:29:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	SELL	38	99¢	$37	0xfe642c…
10-30 14:26:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	38	66¢	$25	0xa560b5…
10-30 14:25:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x308c43…
10-30 14:20:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x81cdfc…
10-30 14:17:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	SELL	46	88¢	$41	0x0c86cd…
10-30 14:15:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0x8ff17f…
10-30 14:11:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	48	89¢	$42	0x456d2c…
10-30 14:10:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0x8ac915…
10-30 14:07:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	57	22¢	$12	0x590e9e…
10-30 14:06:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0xf3e710…
10-30 14:02:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	SELL	45	91¢	$41	0x66e00c…
10-30 14:01:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0x2decd3…
10-30 13:59:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	98	98¢	$96	0x0b8240…
10-30 13:58:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0x37ffac…
10-30 13:58:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0x60f1b2…
10-30 13:58:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	SELL	51	30¢	$15	0x04dbbe…
10-30 13:56:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0xca7142…
10-30 13:50:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0xbc8e9f…
10-30 13:49:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0x1b7989…
10-30 13:47:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0xa41583…
10-30 13:47:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	SELL	83	47¢	$39	0x978fd5…
10-30 13:46:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0xd18357…
10-30 13:46:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0x8ca953…
10-30 13:45:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	SELL	53	56¢	$30	0x9e869f…
10-30 13:45:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0x0e083e…
10-30 13:43:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	41	99¢	$41	0xec0ded…
10-30 13:40:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0xc7ea8e…
10-30 13:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0x968434…
10-30 13:38:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	SELL	57	40¢	$23	0x75d519…
10-30 13:37:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0x2d2b80…
10-30 13:36:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0xe38514…
10-30 13:27:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	38	66¢	$25	0x1afde3…
10-30 13:27:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	SELL	69	38¢	$26	0x1a1844…
10-30 13:26:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	69	36¢	$25	0x67ddde…
10-30 13:26:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	SELL	38	54¢	$21	0x3c08f6…
10-30 13:25:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	38	65¢	$25	0xa0f120…
10-30 13:18:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	SELL	42	81¢	$34	0x0db319…
10-30 13:16:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0x73f708…
10-30 13:15:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	SELL	45	55¢	$25	0x93b39c…
10-30 13:15:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0x86699b…
10-30 13:14:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	SELL	41	99¢	$41	0xf06bea…
10-30 13:14:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0xd58e43…
10-30 13:12:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	SELL	30	90¢	$27	0xd279ac…
10-30 13:11:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0xd3d7ed…
10-30 13:10:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	SELL	42	99¢	$41	0x42c636…
10-30 13:06:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0x0eb160…
10-30 13:03:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x203e6f…
10-30 13:02:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0x80fde6…
10-30 13:02:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	SELL	35	71¢	$25	0x741376…
10-30 13:01:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0xab348c…
10-30 13:00:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	SELL	12	59¢	$7	0x0fe497…
10-30 12:59:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x4520e9…
10-30 12:51:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	SELL	41	77¢	$32	0x60e5e9…
10-30 12:51:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	41	61¢	$25	0xcb659b…
10-30 12:48:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	SELL	34	95¢	$32	0x265de7…
10-30 12:47:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	34	74¢	$25	0xbc6836…
10-30 12:34:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0x64be4f…
10-30 12:33:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	31	81¢	$25	0x7e0fdb…
10-30 11:49:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	SELL	27	88¢	$24	0xf8aa66…
10-30 11:47:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	27	91¢	$25	0x55c33d…
10-30 11:46:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	SELL	42	60¢	$25	0x6dc6a6…
10-30 11:46:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0xcd6bd0…
10-30 11:43:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0x4b0c41…
10-30 11:42:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0x62d7c5…
10-30 11:34:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	SELL	32	99¢	$31	0xf40ba5…
10-30 11:33:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0x8534b9…
10-30 11:27:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0xe81656…
10-30 11:27:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x250ac0…
10-30 11:12:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	SELL	30	87¢	$26	0xcdcb87…
10-30 11:11:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x2d754d…
10-30 11:09:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	SELL	37	99¢	$36	0xae7a21…
10-30 11:08:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0xccbf8c…
10-30 11:07:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	SELL	44	58¢	$25	0x161eab…
10-30 11:06:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0x8d8f68…
10-30 11:03:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	SELL	35	98¢	$34	0xe3a6b5…
10-30 11:02:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0x165aa0…
10-30 10:58:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	SELL	49	6¢	$3	0x461e34…
10-30 10:57:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x592a75…
10-30 10:50:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xa6a20d…
10-30 10:46:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	SELL	14	95¢	$13	0x575448…
10-30 10:45:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xaaf53b…
10-30 10:42:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x221912…
10-30 10:37:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	SELL	11	95¢	$11	0x69964d…
10-30 10:35:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x39969a…