Lonely-Leap — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$9

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

41.3%

Resolved

Trades

1,798

lifetime

Volume

$10.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-28 05:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

35% — —

Crypto

23% 50% +$9

Sports

22% 0% $-30

Other

21% 100% +$12

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No		+10	$9	87¢	$9	$-0	06-13 16:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	4	$632	400	400	+0	open	—	02-28 17:24
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	25	$588	390	390	+0	open	—	04-17 12:44
cbb iowa fl 2026 03 22	2	$544	1,650	1,650	+0	open	—	03-21 15:31
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League?	166	$333	83,210	83,303	-93	open	—	01-25 16:52
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	7	$322	624	619	+5	open	—	04-28 13:10
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	8	$319	505	400	+105	open	—	03-08 18:35
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	2	$316	200	200	+0	open	—	04-07 20:24
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	3	$310	200	200	+0	open	—	04-15 14:33
will germany strike iran by march 31	3	$285	150	150	+0	open	—	03-01 15:22
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League?	127	$256	41,071	41,080	-9	open	—	02-12 06:37
btc updown 5m 1781195400	1	$234	458	0	+458	open	—	06-11 16:25
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?	2	$227	140	137	+3	open	—	04-15 09:38
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	3	$216	180	150	+30	open	—	05-06 12:14
will qatar strike iran by march 31	7	$215	350	350	+0	open	—	03-01 21:22
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	2	$211	150	150	+0	open	—	03-02 23:42
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$208	400	400	+0	open	—	03-26 16:48
spx up or down on march 18 2026	8	$208	500	500	+0	open	—	03-18 16:31
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	4	$205	160	160	+0	open	—	05-05 18:29
will jordan strike iran by march 31	2	$174	100	100	+0	open	—	03-01 21:06
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League?	132	$171	50,652	43,667	+6,985	open	—	01-27 15:32
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	1	$168	210	0	+210	open	—	05-05 13:57
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 16 2026 20260612160513701	1	$162	180	0	+180	open	—	06-16 19:58
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	9	$141	120	120	+0	open	—	03-26 12:11
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$130	80	80	+0	open	—	02-18 08:01
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$120	600	600	+0	open	—	03-26 16:57
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League?	57	$120	30,000	30,000	+0	open	—	02-15 07:55
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League?	113	$116	56,180	59,996	-3,816	open	—	01-26 09:33
will bitcoin dip to 55k in february 2026 644 513 935	2	$105	60	60	+0	open	—	02-18 08:02
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?	1	$103	150	0	+150	open	—	06-03 10:30
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 17 2026 20260612163100185 516 841	1	$103	120	0	+120	open	—	06-16 17:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-28 05:23:25	btc updown 5m 1782624300	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xe3b7a9…
06-24 21:38:53	fifwc mar hai 2026 06 24 team total away 0pt5	Under	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xb6b6a4…
06-21 19:51:01	btc updown 5m 1782072000	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xe1a896…
06-20 19:46:14	btc updown 5m 1781985000	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x69f3e2…
06-16 19:58:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 16 2026 20260612160513701	No	BUY	180	90¢	$162	0x28ed62…
06-16 17:55:49	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 18 2026 585	No	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x4aa6ff…
06-16 17:21:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 17 2026 20260612163100185 516 841	No	BUY	120	86¢	$103	0x3934a3…
06-16 07:02:25	fifwc irq nor 2026 06 16 total 4pt5	Over	BUY	40	21¢	$8	0xd35059…
06-13 16:43:19	Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x57701f…
06-13 16:42:52	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	BUY	140	69¢	$97	0x384ac1…
06-11 16:25:55	btc updown 5m 1781195400	Up	BUY	458	51¢	$234	0x8cf56e…
06-11 09:52:48	btc updown 5m 1781171700	Up	BUY	101	49¢	$50	0xaca6cd…
06-04 16:29:15	btc updown 5m 1780590600	Up	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x6ab5e8…
06-04 10:43:33	btc updown 5m 1780570200	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xec5137…
06-03 10:30:43	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?	No	BUY	150	69¢	$103	0xa2c808…
05-30 16:52:02	Viktor Gyokeres: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x6590fd…
05-30 16:51:20	Viktor Gyokeres: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x5aafa1…
05-30 12:47:28	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	60	52¢	$31	0x8c7ca0…
05-28 19:41:41	World Championships: Switzerland vs. Sweden	Sweden	BUY	13	22¢	$3	0xb3c04c…
05-28 19:41:41	World Championships: Switzerland vs. Sweden	Sweden	BUY	37	22¢	$8	0x35661e…
05-26 20:13:00	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xa6ddce…
05-25 19:26:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xae8a5a…
05-24 19:26:32	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x6473f4…
05-23 13:33:13	Solana Up or Down - May 23, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0xc29556…
05-22 07:26:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x3297b8…
05-22 07:26:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x137593…
05-21 09:53:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x536ca4…
05-19 15:11:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x893a4c…
05-18 07:48:30	Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Thiago Agustin Tirante	Arthur Rinderknech	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0xfcb73f…
05-15 11:26:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x5cf46e…
05-09 18:53:09	Ducks vs. Golden Knights	Ducks	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x74405f…
05-09 18:52:58	Sabres vs. Canadiens	Sabres	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x537171…
05-09 18:52:48	Avalanche vs. Wild	Avalanche	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xea64a8…
05-09 18:52:39	Hurricanes vs. Flyers	Flyers	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x7d2b71…
05-09 18:52:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	29	51¢	$15	0xb210bd…
05-09 18:51:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x830776…
05-09 18:51:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x92bf9c…
05-08 16:51:58	Solana Up or Down - May 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xc1b210…
05-06 12:14:18	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	SELL	150	66¢	$99	0xa713e1…
05-05 18:29:56	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	115	62¢	$72	0x38acf4…
05-05 18:28:58	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	65¢	$29	0xb141c2…
05-05 17:30:52	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x4f4eed…
05-05 17:05:58	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	140	65¢	$91	0x2c0b8c…
05-05 13:57:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	210	80¢	$168	0x2255eb…
05-05 13:56:36	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	150	72¢	$108	0x059004…
05-05 13:56:24	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	30	29¢	$9	0x8b301b…
05-04 15:58:48	LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	Team Vitality	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x7a786d…
05-04 13:43:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x701f7c…
05-01 13:46:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x2f102c…
04-30 16:37:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x1f06bf…
04-28 17:53:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x5a1b99…
04-28 13:10:42	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	444	13¢	$58	0x01c34d…
04-28 12:47:28	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	238	16¢	$38	0x458cac…
04-28 12:46:58	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x72e833…
04-28 12:43:24	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x218dfa…
04-28 12:42:54	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0xeae7dd…
04-27 09:18:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	40	49¢	$20	0xe14d93…
04-26 10:17:06	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	SELL	175	49¢	$86	0x4f2240…
04-25 16:44:00	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xdf6794…
04-25 16:43:58	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	Yes	BUY	40	56¢	$22	0xa6ea28…
04-25 16:43:12	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	180	60¢	$108	0x955c3b…
04-24 17:30:10	btc updown 5m 1777051800	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x378dc0…
04-23 21:17:24	btc updown 5m 1776979200	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x44ad00…
04-22 15:23:18	btc updown 5m 1776871500	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x088810…
04-21 18:44:18	lol ly fly 2026 04 21	LYON	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0x93f308…
04-21 11:15:26	sol updown 15m 1776770100	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x6ae5b0…
04-17 12:44:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	SELL	200	67¢	$134	0x7b311f…
04-17 12:44:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	SELL	69	56¢	$39	0x38ad15…
04-16 18:22:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	BUY	70	72¢	$50	0xe9ccc8…
04-15 20:06:14	ucl ars spo1 2026 04 15 ars	Yes	SELL	79	47¢	$37	0x62b7ef…
04-15 17:11:18	ucl bay1 rma1 2026 04 15 rma1	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x2cc4bf…
04-15 17:11:00	ucl ars spo1 2026 04 15 ars	Yes	BUY	80	64¢	$51	0x67501e…
04-15 14:33:52	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	76¢	$152	0xc4f287…
04-15 10:59:32	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x1c1d50…
04-15 10:59:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	24	78¢	$19	0x70d254…
04-15 10:59:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0x3ba3ff…
04-15 10:59:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0x068067…
04-15 10:59:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0xd94ef3…
04-15 10:59:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0x7d4e18…
04-15 10:59:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0x584152…
04-15 10:59:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0xe7b028…
04-15 10:59:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0xfc9428…
04-15 10:59:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0xd207fa…
04-15 10:59:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0x6df66c…
04-15 10:59:02	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	23	78¢	$18	0x744233…
04-15 10:58:54	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	22	78¢	$17	0xeb75d4…
04-15 10:58:54	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	22	78¢	$17	0x33244b…
04-15 10:58:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	16	78¢	$12	0xd517e6…
04-15 10:58:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	22	78¢	$17	0x5c3e07…
04-15 10:56:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	SELL	190	78¢	$148	0xfa9d30…
04-15 10:37:02	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	186	79¢	$147	0xae77b1…
04-15 10:00:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x36e350…
04-15 09:57:14	btc updown 15m 1776247200	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x19dd5a…
04-15 09:56:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	11	79¢	$8	0x66563f…
04-15 09:56:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	24	79¢	$19	0x241625…
04-15 09:55:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	48	79¢	$38	0x3438e8…
04-15 09:55:06	btc updown 15m 1776247200	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x948e48…
04-15 09:53:24	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	2	79¢	$1	0x7c803d…
04-15 09:53:14	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	48	79¢	$38	0x278b1a…
04-15 09:49:22	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	79¢	$11	0xa6a680…