Plush-Refusal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$16.1K

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

54.6%

Resolved

48,344

Trades

287,476

lifetime

Volume

$940.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-15

last 10-28 11:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 180 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 52% -$16,122

Other

0% 84% +$18

Politics

0% 0% -$3

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 158 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 28?	Yes	+1	$1	88¢	$1	+$0	10-28 12:23
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 28?	No	+1	$1	90¢	$1	+$0	10-28 12:18
Warriors vs. Timberwolves	Timberwolves	+2	$1	60¢	$1	$0	10-28 11:43
Spread: Rockets (-8.5)	Bucks	+2	$1	52¢	$1	$0	10-28 10:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 07:45 UTC	230	$4.3K	3,202	3,154	+48	Down	+$173	02-09 07:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-17 08:45 UTC	88	$2.3K	2,261	1,038	+1,222	Down	-$22	02-17 08:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-30 17:45 UTC	590	$2.2K	2,144	1,918	+226	Down	+$127	01-30 17:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 04:30 UTC	321	$2.0K	2,336	990	+1,346	Down	+$30	02-11 04:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 15:30 UTC	609	$2.0K	2,089	1,823	+266	Up	-$86	02-01 15:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 14:00 UTC	276	$1.9K	1,637	878	+758	Up	+$336	02-09 14:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 14:15 UTC	598	$1.8K	2,084	1,536	+548	Down	+$2	02-01 14:27
bitcoin up or down january 31 8am et	442	$1.8K	1,827	1,822	+5	Up	-$40	01-31 13:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 17:30 UTC	456	$1.8K	1,911	1,435	+476	Down	+$37	02-01 17:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 12:15 UTC	308	$1.8K	1,634	1,587	+47	Down	+$28	02-01 12:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-17 09:00 UTC	156	$1.8K	2,561	313	+2,248	Down	-$243	02-17 09:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 09:45 UTC	266	$1.8K	1,789	878	+910	Up	-$35	02-11 10:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-05 20:00 UTC	218	$1.7K	1,652	820	+832	Down	-$112	02-05 20:15
bitcoin up or down january 28 9am et	396	$1.7K	1,691	1,679	+12	Down	+$54	01-28 14:54
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 15:15 UTC	632	$1.7K	1,750	1,501	+249	Down	+$28	02-01 15:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 04:45 UTC	264	$1.7K	1,790	658	+1,132	Up	-$144	02-11 04:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-17 09:30 UTC	107	$1.6K	1,627	1,574	+53	Up	-$93	02-17 09:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 20:15 UTC	171	$1.6K	1,196	739	+457	Up	+$20	02-07 20:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 08:30 UTC	212	$1.6K	1,432	1,419	+13	Up	-$115	02-10 08:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 14:00 UTC	408	$1.6K	1,529	1,439	+90	Down	+$33	02-01 14:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-11 04:00 UTC	222	$1.6K	1,672	653	+1,019	Down	-$140	02-11 04:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 06:15 UTC	403	$1.5K	1,694	737	+957	Down	-$69	01-28 06:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 11:30 UTC	198	$1.5K	1,503	745	+758	Down	-$81	02-10 11:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-30 22:15 UTC	473	$1.5K	1,652	1,249	+404	Down	-$49	01-30 22:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-01 14:45 UTC	402	$1.5K	1,435	1,412	+23	Up	+$8	02-01 14:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-02 12:00 UTC	368	$1.5K	1,496	745	+751	Up	-$15	02-02 12:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 07:00 UTC	198	$1.4K	1,751	379	+1,372	Up	+$94	02-09 07:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-28 14:45 UTC	287	$1.4K	1,310	902	+408	Down	+$17	01-28 15:00
bitcoin up or down january 28 5am et	307	$1.4K	1,369	1,389	-20	Down	+$52	01-28 11:34
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-17 07:45 UTC	152	$1.4K	1,504	620	+884	Down	-$95	02-17 08:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 12:23:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x5b1ca3…
10-28 12:18:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 28?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x1da7c6…
10-28 12:05:40	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 28?	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xb689cc…
10-28 12:05:38	Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 on October 28?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x4cc767…
10-28 12:04:34	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $335 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x00b7fe…
10-28 11:55:28	Will Hanwha Life Esports Make the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xe34ce0…
10-28 11:43:41	Warriors vs. Timberwolves	Timberwolves	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x25b8ac…
10-28 11:14:47	Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 on October 28?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x09e1ca…
10-28 11:13:11	Spread: Lakers (-5.5)	Clippers	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xa970c2…
10-28 11:09:28	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x5df06c…
10-28 11:09:20	Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 28?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xdd16c2…
10-28 10:33:23	Spread: Pistons (-6.5)	Hornets	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xc62bab…
10-28 10:32:38	Rockets vs. Bucks	Bucks	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x932fd6…
10-28 10:22:38	Spread: Rockets (-8.5)	Bucks	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xdfb63c…
10-28 10:22:38	Spurs vs. Jazz	Jazz	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x9482be…
10-28 10:12:35	Rockets vs. Bucks	Bucks	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xc99de6…
10-28 10:12:35	Spread: Lakers (-5.5)	Clippers	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x69a164…
10-28 10:12:34	Spurs vs. Jazz	Jazz	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xd9c72d…
10-28 09:57:25	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on October 28?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x7e5344…
10-28 09:37:20	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xec32ae…
10-28 09:01:38	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on October 28?	No	BUY	7	67¢	$4	0x379624…
10-28 08:36:31	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x66e7fe…
10-28 07:41:17	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x037f95…
10-28 05:45:07	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x407c5d…
10-28 05:15:23	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,080 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xb04e83…
10-28 04:32:26	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x7fd36b…
10-28 02:06:29	ng up or down on october 28 2026	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xda4786…
10-28 00:16:00	Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,050 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x55a0b2…
10-27 23:10:09	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x353708…
10-27 23:10:08	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on October 27?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x02bd0d…
10-27 22:09:54	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xf6f3d9…
10-27 22:04:36	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on October 27?	No	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x113cdd…
10-27 20:54:23	1st Half Exact Score: Torino FC 0 - 1 Como 1907?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd7e65c…
10-27 20:54:21	1st Half Exact Score: Torino FC 0 - 0 Como 1907?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x3d96c4…
10-27 20:44:18	1st Half Exact Score: AS Roma 0 - 0 Cagliari Calcio?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc7d7f9…
10-27 20:44:17	1st Half Exact Score: AS Roma 1 - 0 Cagliari Calcio?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5b5e9e…
10-27 20:03:44	Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $550 on October 27?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x02c80c…
10-27 20:03:41	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 on October 27?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x65fce4…
10-27 19:33:47	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $680 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x67d421…
10-27 19:18:29	Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x10d755…
10-27 18:38:08	Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $2.25 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x000d2f…
10-27 18:07:41	1st Half Exact Score: US Sassuolo Calcio 0 - 0 SS Lazio?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x7cc3c0…
10-27 17:37:33	Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $67.50 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x1a68aa…
10-27 17:07:08	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xa190f0…
10-27 16:06:33	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x445ec6…
10-27 16:02:09	Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x36b411…
10-27 15:46:38	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $180 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x9b60f6…
10-27 14:25:41	Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	89¢	$4	0x8b0b8c…
10-27 14:20:45	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $690 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x90d541…
10-27 14:20:44	Will CZ post 60-79 posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x8aeb07…
10-27 14:15:30	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x688e57…
10-27 14:00:30	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 10°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	210	1¢	$3	0x434ac7…
10-27 13:35:09	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x58c653…
10-27 12:28:48	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x7c6260…
10-27 10:38:36	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x79102d…
10-27 09:23:02	zelenskyy of tweets october 30 november 6 2026 120 139	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x31098d…
10-27 08:27:44	zelenskyy of tweets october 30 november 6 2026 140 159	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x71f21d…
10-27 07:01:48	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xd909e8…
10-27 06:39:23	donald trump of truth social posts october 30 november 6 2026 40 59	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x7eaba0…
10-27 06:37:54	donald trump of truth social posts october 30 november 6 2026 20 39	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x36c32a…
10-27 06:11:05	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x147caa…
10-27 00:10:20	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on October 26?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xba637a…
10-27 00:00:14	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on October 26?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xf82088…
10-26 23:49:54	Will the lowest temperature in Denver be between 40-41°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x7570d6…
10-26 22:39:12	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xa56c71…
10-26 22:34:17	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 26?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x026f70…
10-26 22:29:09	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 3°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x129a6f…
10-26 22:29:08	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 2°C on October 26?	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x26db36…
10-26 22:09:39	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on October 26?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x6e751d…
10-26 22:09:38	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on October 26?	Up	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xc50b84…
10-26 22:09:35	googl close above 330 on october 27 2026	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xf79050…
10-26 22:03:59	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xbfb375…
10-26 22:03:59	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 26?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xa42bdf…
10-26 21:59:06	1st Half Exact Score: Sevilla FC 0 - 0 CA Osasuna?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x40e4d7…
10-26 21:23:36	1st Half Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 Olympique Lyonnais?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xcdb189…
10-26 20:03:14	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 on October 26?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x02c4a2…
10-26 20:03:12	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 on October 26?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x76c36e…
10-26 19:48:00	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x9b3af3…
10-26 19:38:15	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on October 26?	No	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x6a54d3…
10-26 18:03:36	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on October 26?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xfcb0a2…
10-26 17:38:59	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xc96211…
10-26 14:49:54	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $236 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x2f25cf…
10-26 13:46:30	1st Half Exact Score: Venezia FC 0 - 1 FC Internazionale Milano?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xca056a…
10-26 13:46:20	msft close above 550 on october 27 2026	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x4faf3e…
10-26 13:40:59	1st Half Exact Score: Torino FC 0 - 1 Como 1907?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x6759cb…
10-26 13:04:08	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 on October 26?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x522692…
10-26 13:00:50	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x00308e…
10-26 11:59:12	1st Half Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 Olympique Lyonnais?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x27b8d5…
10-26 11:59:11	1st Half Exact Score: Sevilla FC 1 - 0 CA Osasuna?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xc58ddf…
10-26 11:59:11	1st Half Exact Score: Sevilla FC 0 - 0 CA Osasuna?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x4166cc…
10-26 11:59:09	1st Half Exact Score: US Sassuolo Calcio 0 - 0 SS Lazio?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xae2025…
10-26 11:59:08	1st Half Exact Score: AS Roma 0 - 0 Cagliari Calcio?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xc3e2ee…
10-26 11:59:08	1st Half Exact Score: AS Roma 1 - 0 Cagliari Calcio?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xb9ff97…
10-26 11:59:06	1st Half Exact Score: Torino FC 0 - 0 Como 1907?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x3bc43b…
10-26 11:55:57	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on October 26?	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xe351d9…
10-26 08:24:02	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 26?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x8c70b7…
10-26 07:43:36	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 26?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x39a18b…
10-26 06:01:54	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $795 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x71ae16…
10-26 04:46:48	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on October 26?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xd65228…
10-26 04:01:41	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 26?	No	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0x924d59…