Orange-Arrogance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$294

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

13.6%

Resolved

Trades

111

lifetime

Volume

$37.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$338

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-23 01:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 39 days

Categories

Other

99% 86% +$293

Crypto

1% 100% +$1

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
amzn above 205 on january 2 2026	17	$32.0K	15,995	15,995	+0	Yes	+$0	01-02 08:26
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027?	2	$685	700	0	+700	Yes	+$15	08-21 17:22
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 5 above $20?	1	$500	500	0	+500	Yes	+$0	10-09 05:50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June?	7	$394	198	198	+0	No	+$0	06-20 07:12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June?	1	$330	331	0	+331	No	+$1	05-30 14:11
will wti dip to 20 in july 2026 174	1	$302	303	0	+303	No	+$1	07-03 02:24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May?	1	$300	300	0	+300	No	+$0	05-20 05:11
will wti dip to 10 in july 2026 851	1	$280	280	0	+280	No	+$0	07-03 02:24
crint ind nzl 2026 01 31 toss winner	1	$200	220	0	+220	India	-$200	01-31 05:54
nflx above 20 on july 3 2026	3	$154	155	0	+155	Yes	+$1	06-30 14:44
nflx above 20 on june 26 2026	1	$115	115	0	+115	Yes	+$0	06-23 03:56
nflx above 30 on june 26 2026	1	$115	115	0	+115	Yes	+$0	06-23 03:56
nflx above 20 on march 6 2026	1	$110	110	0	+110	Yes	+$0	03-01 01:12
nflx above 50 on january 30 2026	1	$109	109	0	+109	Yes	+$0	01-30 06:06
craus per ade 2026 01 04 toss winner	1	$105	1,500	0	+1,500	Adelaide Strikers	-$105	01-04 08:18
nflx above 30 on june 12 2026	1	$101	101	0	+101	Yes	+$0	06-09 03:34
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	05-05 04:01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	05-07 03:33
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	04-03 02:06
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	04-03 02:06
nflx above 0 on march 31 2026	1	$99	100	0	+100	Yes	+$1	03-01 01:13
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in June?	1	$96	96	0	+96	No	+$0	05-30 14:11
nflx above 10 on july 3 2026	2	$90	90	0	+90	Yes	+$0	06-30 06:02
nflx above 20 on october 30 2026	2	$69	35	35	+0	Yes	+$1	10-23 01:49
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 Assam Legislative Assembly election?	1	$60	60	0	+60	Yes	+$0	05-04 05:20
Will Netflix dip to $35 in April?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	04-30 07:16
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 25 above $150?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	05-24 03:16
nflx above 130 on march 27 2026	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	03-27 03:19
Will Netflix reach $455 in April?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	04-03 02:08
nflx above 10 on october 30 2026	2	$48	49	0	+49	Yes	+$1	09-26 03:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 01:49:44	Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $20 end of October?	Yes	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0x69ac7b…
10-09 05:50:42	Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 5 above $20?	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$500	0xd91153…
09-26 03:41:56	nflx above 20 on october 30 2026	Yes	BUY	35	98¢	$34	0x54e502…
09-26 03:41:06	nflx above 10 on october 30 2026	Yes	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xf68be7…
09-26 03:40:54	nflx above 10 on october 30 2026	Yes	BUY	35	98¢	$34	0x93e625…
09-25 02:52:26	Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of September 21 above $120?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb95c31…
09-24 08:02:27	Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of September 21 above $130?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3f15d1…
09-16 03:02:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of September 14 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x63e1ab…
08-27 07:44:57	Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of August 24 above $20?	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x41a43e…
08-21 17:22:37	Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x7014da…
08-21 17:21:31	Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027?	Yes	BUY	600	98¢	$588	0xda0792…
08-21 11:34:37	nflx above 60 on august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4e0738…
07-03 02:24:55	will wti dip to 10 in july 2026 851	No	BUY	280	100¢	$280	0xd94e75…
07-03 02:24:40	will wti dip to 20 in july 2026 174	No	BUY	303	100¢	$302	0x95a6ff…
06-30 14:44:38	nflx above 20 on july 3 2026	Yes	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x40409d…
06-30 06:09:25	nflx above 20 on july 3 2026	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xab54b1…
06-30 06:02:43	nflx above 10 on july 3 2026	Yes	BUY	85	100¢	$85	0xc15c6f…
06-27 01:31:59	nflx above 30 on july 3 2026	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd5c477…
06-27 01:31:50	nflx above 20 on july 3 2026	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xeeee91…
06-27 01:31:41	nflx above 10 on july 3 2026	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x027602…
06-23 03:56:47	nflx above 30 on june 26 2026	Yes	BUY	115	100¢	$115	0x908485…
06-23 03:56:11	nflx above 20 on june 26 2026	Yes	BUY	115	100¢	$115	0x3a6332…
06-20 07:12:10	will wti dip to 40 in june 2026 584 727 626	No	SELL	162	100¢	$162	0x5b9d20…
06-19 06:12:41	will wti dip to 40 in june 2026 584 727 626	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xe8cf8d…
06-19 01:58:37	will wti dip to 40 in june 2026 584 727 626	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x172d8f…
06-19 01:24:19	will wti dip to 40 in june 2026 584 727 626	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xb0634e…
06-18 03:27:58	will wti dip to 40 in june 2026 584 727 626	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x73340f…
06-17 10:43:58	will wti dip to 40 in june 2026 584 727 626	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xaf7fa8…
06-15 07:45:31	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x29fa19…
06-15 07:35:12	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xc91a09…
06-09 03:34:15	nflx above 30 on june 12 2026	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x80bff0…
06-01 05:27:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June?	No	BUY	198	99¢	$197	0x6c7a6c…
05-30 14:11:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June?	No	BUY	331	100¢	$330	0xa9b175…
05-30 14:11:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in June?	No	BUY	96	100¢	$96	0x45c753…
05-24 03:26:01	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xd702e4…
05-24 03:25:43	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe4fa31…
05-24 03:20:11	Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 25 above $140?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x365b55…
05-24 03:16:53	Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 25 above $150?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x0e76b1…
05-24 03:16:37	Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 25 above $50?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd1c0d7…
05-24 03:16:27	nflx above 40 on may 29 2026	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x793df6…
05-24 03:16:16	Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 25 above $30?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x294d9c…
05-20 05:11:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May?	No	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0xa9ecf1…
05-09 15:56:29	Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 11 above $30?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5c2491…
05-07 03:33:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xc14a89…
05-05 04:01:34	Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x254085…
05-04 05:20:30	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 Assam Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x27f40d…
04-30 07:16:28	Will Netflix dip to $35 in April?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x3c184a…
04-30 07:16:02	Will Netflix reach $298 in April?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xba4c8b…
04-30 07:13:40	Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of April 27 above $310?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x9f4ae5…
04-25 02:42:26	Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$50 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 27 – May 1?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$11	0xffde4c…
04-25 02:22:06	Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$50 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 27 – May 1?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x759dda…
04-11 03:40:19	msft above 310 on april 17 2026	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x12a661…
04-10 04:36:19	msft above 310 on april 10 2026	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x4ca14c…
04-10 04:34:11	nflx above 50 on april 10 2026	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x3b198a…
04-10 04:34:05	nflx above 50 on april 10 2026	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x551974…
04-03 02:08:07	Will Netflix reach $455 in April?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xcdce2e…
04-03 02:06:43	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xf881e9…
04-03 02:06:23	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x5ad583…
03-27 03:19:57	nflx above 130 on march 27 2026	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x813b6a…
03-22 08:28:33	will nflx dip to 35 in march	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x8ec150…
03-22 08:28:15	will nflx dip to 0 in march	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x79a7c9…
03-22 08:27:43	nflx above 40 on march 27 2026	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xb9bd2c…
03-22 08:27:33	nflx above 30 on march 27 2026	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x60cd09…
03-22 03:41:31	will bitcoin reach 110k in march 2026	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x1d0289…
03-14 02:10:47	will bitcoin reach 110k in march 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x44380f…
03-13 01:29:41	nflx above 40 on march 20 2026	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa1751d…
03-13 01:29:29	meta above 580 on march 20 2026	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x2e822e…
03-13 01:29:09	aapl above 230 on march 13 2026	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xa58e71…
03-13 01:28:19	googl above 270 on march 13 2026	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x63a05d…
03-13 01:27:13	nflx above 50 on march 13 2026	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0x58a32c…
03-13 01:23:15	msft above 350 on march 13 2026	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x6d2d51…
03-07 02:04:39	nflx above 40 on march 13 2026	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xa30dde…
03-01 11:45:09	will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x859685…
03-01 01:13:21	nflx above 0 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x869d08…
03-01 01:12:41	nflx above 20 on march 6 2026	Yes	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x63c9b4…
02-25 02:33:38	nflx above 20 on february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x65d1db…
02-22 01:56:34	nflx above 30 on february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$19	0x00606d…
02-21 02:45:36	nflx above 30 on february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x86aea9…
02-19 03:19:30	msft above 340 on february 20 2026	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x1f0140…
02-15 04:45:31	nflx above 20 on february 20 2026	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0xe3e2f0…
02-12 01:52:09	crint ind nam 2026 02 12 toss winner	India	BUY	55	6¢	$3	0xde3622…
02-12 01:50:45	crint ind nam 2026 02 12 toss winner	India	BUY	240	6¢	$14	0x81983a…
02-12 01:49:29	crint ind nam 2026 02 12 toss winner	India	BUY	55	6¢	$3	0xbde782…
02-05 02:27:51	crint can npl 2026 02 05 toss winner	Canada	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x6ef2cf…
02-05 02:11:19	crint can npl 2026 02 05 toss winner	Canada	BUY	350	8¢	$28	0x2b30ee…
02-04 01:59:00	crint nam sco 2026 02 04 toss winner	Scotland	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x471bad…
02-03 01:49:26	ethereum above 2800 on february 3	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x0c4c63…
02-02 07:16:04	crint afg sco 2026 02 02 toss winner	Afghanistan	BUY	360	8¢	$29	0x893050…
02-02 01:25:26	will solana dip to 80 january 26 1	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xfb75ec…
02-01 02:55:08	crwpl20 dcw upww 2026 02 01 toss winner	UP Warriorz Women	BUY	600	5¢	$30	0x9e06ad…
01-31 05:54:24	crint ind nzl 2026 01 31 toss winner	New Zealand	BUY	220	91¢	$200	0x44b7f0…
01-30 06:06:22	nflx above 50 on january 30 2026	Yes	BUY	109	100¢	$109	0x2dd627…
01-04 08:18:33	craus per ade 2026 01 04 toss winner	Perth Scorchers	BUY	1,500	7¢	$105	0x2e93f3…
01-04 02:17:57	craus hob ade 2026 01 09 toss winner	Hobart Hurricanes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x26c5e8…
01-02 08:26:19	amzn above 205 on january 2 2026	Yes	SELL	2,000	100¢	$1,998	0xcfa329…
01-02 08:23:43	amzn above 205 on january 2 2026	Yes	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,998	0x8361fa…
01-02 08:22:17	amzn above 205 on january 2 2026	Yes	SELL	2,000	100¢	$1,998	0xc090eb…
01-02 08:05:55	amzn above 205 on january 2 2026	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$500	0xd58d37…
01-02 08:05:47	amzn above 205 on january 2 2026	Yes	BUY	1,500	100¢	$1,498	0xb98a5f…
01-02 08:04:51	amzn above 205 on january 2 2026	Yes	SELL	2,000	100¢	$1,998	0x5e23bf…