Somber-Hypothesis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$23

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

52.9%

Resolved

Trades

133

lifetime

Volume

$324

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-17

last 05-07 19:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

52% 41% $-24

Politics

28% 100% +$1

Other

20% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 122 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$23	22	4	+18	open	—	05-07 19:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	1	$20	45	0	+45	open	—	05-01 23:46
Major US official out by May 31?	1	$20	30	0	+30	open	—	05-01 23:41
Will Donald Trump dance on May 8, 2026?	3	$19	17	4	+12	No	+$1	05-07 17:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	6	$15	18	18	+0	Up	+$3	05-07 17:14
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	1	$15	21	0	+21	open	—	05-01 23:46
Will Donald Trump dance on May 2, 2026?	1	$15	15	0	+15	open	—	05-01 23:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	1	$12	14	0	+14	open	—	05-01 23:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	11	$11	21	0	+21	Down	$-11	05-07 18:48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	1	$10	16	0	+16	open	—	05-01 23:46
Will Donald Trump dance on May 3, 2026?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	05-01 23:35
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by April 30, 2026?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-17 07:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	6	$9	8	8	+0	Up	+$1	05-07 19:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	8	$9	16	3	+13	Up	+$7	05-07 18:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	8	$8	24	18	+6	Up	+$0	05-07 18:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	4	$8	26	3	+24	Down	$-4	05-07 17:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	5	$8	10	5	+4	Up	$-0	05-07 18:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	7	$8	12	2	+9	Down	$-4	05-07 19:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	7	$7	11	5	+6	Down	+$1	05-07 18:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	3	$6	8	4	+4	Down	$-2	05-07 16:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	6	$6	11	1	+9	Down	$-2	05-07 18:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	3	$6	239	0	+239	Down	$-6	05-07 16:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	5	$6	8	2	+6	Up	$-1	05-07 17:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	2	$6	8	8	+0	Down	+$2	05-07 16:14
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by April 30, 2026?	1	$5	75	0	+75	open	—	04-17 07:09
Will Donald Trump dance on May 4, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-01 23:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	5	$5	10	0	+10	Down	+$1	05-07 19:16
Will Donald Trump dance on May 7, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-07 16:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	2	$4	11	0	+11	Up	$-4	05-07 17:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	4	$4	5	2	+3	Up	$-2	05-07 19:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-07 19:47:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x29b1e7…
05-07 19:47:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x9f195b…
05-07 19:47:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	SELL	2	36¢	$1	0xc40d91…
05-07 19:46:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xf5533b…
05-07 19:41:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xef1c6c…
05-07 19:41:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x2305aa…
05-07 19:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$1	0x1e9807…
05-07 19:36:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x39181f…
05-07 19:36:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xd541b2…
05-07 19:25:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xe02413…
05-07 19:23:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	SELL	2	65¢	$2	0xdffa75…
05-07 19:22:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x438e7f…
05-07 19:21:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x1118d5…
05-07 19:21:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x48c189…
05-07 19:21:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xa91609…
05-07 19:21:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x562d46…
05-07 19:21:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x3b30a5…
05-07 19:16:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xfd9e09…
05-07 19:16:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xae37b8…
05-07 19:16:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x0a3d34…
05-07 19:15:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x172b5c…
05-07 19:14:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xaac6d9…
05-07 19:14:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0x90e99b…
05-07 19:13:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x0cc560…
05-07 19:11:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x4c1cc2…
05-07 19:10:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x75b97f…
05-07 19:10:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xf02115…
05-07 19:10:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xf759e2…
05-07 19:05:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x5ef361…
05-07 19:05:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x883d43…
05-07 19:05:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x9dfb06…
05-07 19:05:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	4	82¢	$3	0x2dfcc0…
05-07 18:48:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xf116c2…
05-07 18:48:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x35b39d…
05-07 18:46:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x01880c…
05-07 18:46:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xb19d57…
05-07 18:46:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x3cc564…
05-07 18:46:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x8d3e11…
05-07 18:46:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x81c433…
05-07 18:46:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x4affcb…
05-07 18:45:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x55181f…
05-07 18:45:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x75b2f7…
05-07 18:45:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x40aba7…
05-07 18:43:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x4f29f4…
05-07 18:41:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x4a1e9c…
05-07 18:41:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xf272c3…
05-07 18:41:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x7b3506…
05-07 18:41:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x7f0ffe…
05-07 18:40:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xe57244…
05-07 18:38:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x4fb895…
05-07 18:38:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xf80245…
05-07 18:38:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	SELL	3	50¢	$2	0xd3d8bc…
05-07 18:37:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x373702…
05-07 18:37:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x1f5d04…
05-07 18:37:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xa66584…
05-07 18:36:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x8a50c2…
05-07 18:36:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xc04530…
05-07 18:32:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x7fa5b5…
05-07 18:32:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xcc9562…
05-07 18:31:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	SELL	18	8¢	$1	0xd9722a…
05-07 18:31:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x230b81…
05-07 18:31:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x2982c7…
05-07 18:30:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xaa2f58…
05-07 18:30:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xe43c36…
05-07 18:30:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x6a8d33…
05-07 18:28:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x056d56…
05-07 18:28:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x5e3e4b…
05-07 18:27:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0xe2b5ca…
05-07 18:26:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x0ec80c…
05-07 18:26:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xe5d4c0…
05-07 18:26:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x207ac5…
05-07 18:26:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x453043…
05-07 18:24:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	SELL	3	9¢	$0	0x1a6123…
05-07 18:22:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x6ce492…
05-07 18:21:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x00ac80…
05-07 18:21:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x800914…
05-07 18:18:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x34c05c…
05-07 18:17:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x19c186…
05-07 18:17:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x265285…
05-07 18:14:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0xf41629…
05-07 18:13:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x6264cd…
05-07 18:13:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xb724c1…
05-07 18:12:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x072f84…
05-07 18:11:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x3b0c1a…
05-07 18:07:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x01437a…
05-07 17:40:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x49d7a9…
05-07 17:38:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x04a580…
05-07 17:38:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0xf566fd…
05-07 17:36:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x5abe6c…
05-07 17:36:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xc7a38e…
05-07 17:35:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xa89914…
05-07 17:35:29	Will Donald Trump dance on May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	4	85¢	$4	0x662471…
05-07 17:33:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x1149c8…
05-07 17:26:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xb7f247…
05-07 17:21:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x579e73…
05-07 17:20:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x0e6e43…
05-07 17:17:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0xdeb87e…
05-07 17:17:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	SELL	3	81¢	$2	0xa52509…
05-07 17:16:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0xec8ed2…
05-07 17:15:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x4ba027…