Single-Excuse — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$152

Unrealized P&L

+$475

Hit rate

42.9%

Resolved

Trades

448

lifetime

Volume

$27.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$62

Open exposure

$319

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-02 11:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

60% 50% +$152

Other

38% — —

Tech

2% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	+650	$182	29¢	$189	+$6	06-02 11:45
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	-2,000	$-600	6¢	$-130	+$470	05-31 15:04
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	+7	$1	0¢	$0	$-1	06-02 06:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	28	$2.4K	5,941	5,941	+0	open	—	04-12 19:12
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	32	$1.7K	5,233	4,533	+700	open	—	03-06 15:06
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	11	$1.4K	3,067	2,027	+1,040	open	—	02-16 06:23
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	20	$1.3K	2,992	2,992	+0	Yes	$-76	03-12 12:51
will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	28	$1.1K	3,324	3,324	+0	open	—	03-30 01:12
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	3	$977	725	725	+0	open	—	01-30 12:35
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	4	$970	868	868	+0	Yes	+$228	05-09 06:28
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	7	$958	2,830	2,830	+0	open	—	04-14 16:29
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 13	10	$872	1,467	1,467	+0	open	—	03-12 13:34
ucl atm1 fcb1 2026 04 14 fcb1	2	$783	510	503	+7	open	—	04-14 21:04
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	7	$747	887	887	+0	open	—	02-08 15:13
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	7	$741	893	475	+418	open	—	04-20 19:02
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	4	$676	565	565	+0	open	—	01-29 16:07
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	4	$638	1,381	791	+590	open	—	01-30 20:10
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	1	$600	0	2,000	-2,000	open	—	05-31 15:04
another us government shutdown by february 14	4	$593	551	551	+0	open	—	02-13 07:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$538	1,415	1,415	+0	open	—	04-14 17:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$467	599	599	+0	open	—	05-07 20:51
will trump shake hands with volodymyr zelenskyy at the world economic forum	2	$415	340	340	+0	open	—	01-21 16:20
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$389	335	335	+0	open	—	02-04 07:11
gpt 5pt3 released by march 8 2026	8	$373	1,387	1,387	+0	open	—	03-03 18:41
will khamenei leave iran by march 31 224 161 138 998	3	$338	962	962	+0	open	—	01-28 20:49
trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	4	$300	487	487	-0	open	—	01-21 14:31
odds of khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 over 50 by january 16	6	$300	1,558	1,558	+0	open	—	01-13 20:16
will trump say green new scam during wef address on january 21	3	$281	207	207	+0	open	—	01-21 13:52
us x iran nuclear talks resume by march 31	2	$270	489	489	+0	open	—	02-04 18:13
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	2	$267	767	0	+767	open	—	04-14 21:10
will lus marques mendes win the 2026 portugal presidential election	3	$249	1,594	1,594	+0	open	—	01-20 11:56
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	3	$244	700	700	+0	open	—	05-24 09:05
will fideszkdnp win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	2	$243	2,150	2,150	+0	open	—	04-12 19:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-02 11:45:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	650	28¢	$182	0x1a8ebd…
06-02 06:20:34	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0xece01d…
05-31 15:04:34	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,000	30¢	$600	0x1c82d7…
05-24 09:05:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	350	15¢	$51	0xe54f01…
05-23 17:02:01	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	350	29¢	$102	0xff84fa…
05-17 11:46:31	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	700	13¢	$91	0xe74839…
05-09 06:28:49	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	395	99¢	$391	0xf7f608…
05-08 19:19:21	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	395	40¢	$158	0xa317c0…
05-07 20:51:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	599	26¢	$156	0xf6dc1a…
05-05 20:15:36	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,694	9¢	$145	0x75f1a2…
05-05 19:08:06	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	180	4¢	$6	0x8aba6c…
05-05 19:07:34	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	893	3¢	$27	0x3f4c33…
05-05 19:06:32	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	400	5¢	$19	0x47a562…
04-22 06:56:20	SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	617	0¢	$3	0x3b8f8c…
04-20 19:02:26	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	129	35¢	$45	0x551c24…
04-20 19:02:14	will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	No	SELL	300	15¢	$45	0x230c17…
04-20 17:15:48	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	290	49¢	$142	0x673759…
04-20 13:37:00	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	Yes	SELL	475	72¢	$342	0x07c6e3…
04-19 20:25:06	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	101	40¢	$40	0x1fd90d…
04-19 20:20:12	X Money released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	58	69¢	$40	0x39a631…
04-19 20:18:24	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	46	44¢	$20	0x54e679…
04-19 20:18:06	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	139	44¢	$61	0xac860b…
04-19 20:08:50	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	189	48¢	$91	0xf0b222…
04-19 17:38:18	will progressive bulgaria pb win the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election by 5 10	Yes	SELL	373	0¢	$1	0xfdae51…
04-19 10:32:32	will progressive bulgaria pb win the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election by 5 10	Yes	BUY	229	8¢	$18	0x81bdd6…
04-16 20:51:18	will progressive bulgaria pb win the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election by 5 10	Yes	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0xd9e75a…
04-16 18:27:04	will progressive bulgaria pb win the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election by 5 10	Yes	BUY	16	24¢	$4	0x035296…
04-16 18:25:12	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,373	0¢	$4	0x8b45c9…
04-16 17:20:04	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,373	6¢	$87	0x11545a…
04-16 16:28:42	will progressive bulgaria pb win the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election by 5 10	Yes	BUY	38	23¢	$9	0xfd6ea3…
04-16 15:28:42	will progressive bulgaria pb win the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election by 5 10	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x11ed25…
04-16 14:10:30	will progressive bulgaria pb win the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election by 5 10	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x11d242…
04-16 11:50:16	will progressive bulgaria pb win the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election by 5 10	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x061887…
04-16 07:27:36	will progressive bulgaria pb win the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election by 5 10	Yes	BUY	8	23¢	$2	0xa520f8…
04-16 05:50:26	will progressive bulgaria pb win the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election by 5 10	Yes	BUY	8	23¢	$2	0xd08b8d…
04-16 05:50:26	will progressive bulgaria pb win the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election by 5 10	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xae095e…
04-16 05:50:14	will progressive bulgaria pb win the 2026 bulgarian parliamentary election by 5 10	Yes	BUY	40	23¢	$9	0xdd630f…
04-16 04:46:48	will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	No	BUY	600	16¢	$96	0x91aebc…
04-16 04:46:22	will the virginia constitutional amendment referendum fail to pass	Yes	SELL	479	17¢	$83	0xc29172…
04-15 11:39:20	will the virginia constitutional amendment referendum fail to pass	Yes	BUY	496	16¢	$81	0xa5a0d4…
04-14 21:19:36	ucl bay1 rma1 2026 04 15 rma1	Yes	BUY	500	21¢	$105	0xb7b619…
04-14 21:10:04	Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	336	30¢	$100	0x8e56c1…
04-14 21:04:46	ucl atm1 fcb1 2026 04 14 fcb1	Yes	SELL	503	100¢	$502	0x84fe45…
04-14 17:11:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	599	52¢	$311	0x72d18a…
04-14 17:05:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	1,287	22¢	$283	0x0d8cac…
04-14 17:04:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	128	22¢	$28	0xbcd8d1…
04-14 16:31:00	ucl atm1 fcb1 2026 04 14 fcb1	Yes	BUY	510	55¢	$280	0xc1370d…
04-14 16:29:38	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,001	28¢	$280	0x8cc709…
04-13 16:51:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	1,415	16¢	$226	0xefcbe5…
04-13 16:47:21	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	429	33¢	$140	0x12230f…
04-12 19:13:11	will fideszkdnp win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	2,150	0¢	$6	0xec387c…
04-12 19:12:21	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	SELL	3,986	2¢	$80	0x08aa31…
04-12 12:10:33	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	2,387	10¢	$239	0xd36181…
04-12 09:34:39	will fideszkdnp win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	2,150	11¢	$236	0xc157d5…
04-11 15:13:39	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	824	29¢	$239	0x9f2c00…
04-08 16:37:23	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	21	34¢	$7	0xf5c764…
04-07 22:38:33	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	153	45¢	$69	0x7a1967…
04-07 22:37:11	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	153	32¢	$49	0xfc5a0d…
04-07 15:21:23	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,400	17¢	$237	0x9ca3b8…
03-30 08:40:14	X Money released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	22	48¢	$10	0x1a32ec…
03-30 08:36:32	X Money released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x567ae1…
03-30 08:36:22	X Money released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	34	48¢	$17	0xa2f2a5…
03-30 01:12:16	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	SELL	1,824	7¢	$130	0xe6498f…
03-28 12:13:39	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	70	37¢	$26	0xbeffe1…
03-28 12:13:03	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,796	12¢	$208	0x18ba9d…
03-27 21:32:15	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xaad8a7…
03-27 20:45:01	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	9¢	$0	0xc94298…
03-27 18:49:57	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,020	9¢	$92	0x295605…
03-27 18:45:41	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	SELL	1,500	6¢	$90	0xfe54d4…
03-23 18:05:25	will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	Yes	SELL	413	1¢	$3	0x151ed8…
03-22 09:06:27	will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	Yes	BUY	413	40¢	$165	0x406872…
03-20 19:28:57	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xd8c3f3…
03-20 19:01:49	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	4	16¢	$1	0xdecc56…
03-20 18:02:19	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0xcd6be0…
03-20 16:18:27	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	82	16¢	$13	0x15528f…
03-20 07:25:59	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	2	16¢	$0	0xc2588a…
03-20 06:38:33	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	38	16¢	$6	0x5f2767…
03-19 18:37:29	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	75	16¢	$12	0x2411c2…
03-19 18:15:13	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	38	16¢	$6	0x1d1f15…
03-19 16:34:35	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	532	16¢	$85	0x262ac9…
03-17 13:30:03	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	16	35¢	$6	0x5671e1…
03-17 13:21:23	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	221	30¢	$66	0x01b2f8…
03-17 12:58:07	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	62	30¢	$19	0xe0c41b…
03-17 12:54:05	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	140	30¢	$42	0x081eb8…
03-17 12:50:55	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	14	30¢	$4	0xb731bf…
03-17 12:39:53	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	26	30¢	$8	0x1c5755…
03-17 10:35:51	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	8	30¢	$2	0x9d2f0f…
03-16 12:47:05	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	16	33¢	$5	0x569c5c…
03-14 20:41:07	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	61	31¢	$19	0xe59b6c…
03-14 20:40:59	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	196	31¢	$61	0xcfce0a…
03-14 19:58:13	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	2	31¢	$1	0xfe1886…
03-14 19:38:11	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0xac6c3b…
03-14 19:32:35	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x474821…
03-14 17:41:29	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	14	31¢	$4	0x6b7d01…
03-14 17:40:13	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	Yes	BUY	14	31¢	$4	0x3c1409…
03-14 17:16:51	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	Yes	SELL	257	36¢	$93	0xc052d7…
03-13 20:08:53	SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	617	7¢	$43	0xc9d748…
03-13 20:08:39	X Money released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	167	26¢	$43	0xe9c4ad…
03-13 11:21:09	north korea missile test by march 31 472	No	BUY	89	39¢	$35	0xf0e877…
03-13 11:04:33	north korea missile test by march 31 472	No	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0xd1b27e…