Open-Tumbler — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

53.8%

Resolved

Trades

130

lifetime

Volume

$3.64K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-30

last 07-12 21:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

59% — —

Other

26% 50% $-2

Tech

13% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	2	$166	150	150	+0	open	—	06-23 14:31
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	4	$135	82	82	+0	open	—	03-23 03:59
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	2	$124	93	93	+0	open	—	05-23 21:07
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	2	$121	77	77	+0	open	—	05-21 14:19
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$113	83	83	+0	open	—	05-13 17:49
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	2	$107	90	90	+0	open	—	07-13 20:47
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	2	$106	70	70	+0	open	—	05-23 21:07
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$106	70	70	+0	open	—	05-23 18:47
will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	2	$103	80	80	+0	open	—	06-29 15:38
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	2	$91	54	54	+0	open	—	05-08 22:31
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$88	58	58	+0	open	—	04-08 09:12
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	4	$87	54	54	+0	open	—	04-14 13:38
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	2	$84	60	60	+0	open	—	04-03 13:26
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	3	$78	109	109	+0	open	—	06-23 14:32
megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	2	$77	56	56	+0	open	—	04-22 19:29
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$76	43	43	+0	open	—	05-19 07:03
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	2	$76	54	54	+0	open	—	04-08 18:53
will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	2	$72	59	59	+0	open	—	06-12 07:47
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$70	59	59	+0	open	—	04-05 17:53
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	2	$70	61	61	+0	open	—	03-15 17:32
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	2	$70	41	41	+0	open	—	03-28 16:09
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	2	$68	44	44	+0	open	—	04-22 19:30
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	1	$66	0	79	-79	open	—	05-28 18:07
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	2	$65	40	40	+0	open	—	07-02 16:09
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	5	$65	50	50	-0	open	—	03-08 18:23
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$65	50	50	+0	open	—	03-27 16:56
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	2	$63	46	46	+0	Yes	+$13	04-02 16:07
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	2	$57	58	58	+0	open	—	04-14 13:39
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	2	$56	32	32	+0	open	—	04-26 20:24
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$56	36	36	+0	open	—	03-15 17:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-13 20:47:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	SELL	90	75¢	$68	0xa216cd…
07-12 21:57:46	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	70	55¢	$38	0xb3ac8a…
07-07 15:28:07	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	60	51¢	$31	0xfaa115…
07-03 16:56:10	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	90	44¢	$40	0xfae561…
07-02 16:09:11	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	SELL	40	95¢	$38	0x132598…
06-30 21:10:19	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	BUY	40	68¢	$27	0x0b5ceb…
06-30 20:20:01	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	61	57¢	$35	0xa43ad5…
06-29 15:38:23	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	No	SELL	80	81¢	$65	0x352433…
06-27 14:13:35	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	No	BUY	80	48¢	$38	0xf8bc0a…
06-24 11:01:56	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	190	23¢	$44	0xa7b4d4…
06-23 15:22:56	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	80	54¢	$43	0x50e79e…
06-23 14:32:31	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	2	15¢	$0	0xd498a3…
06-23 14:31:29	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	SELL	150	82¢	$123	0xd750b5…
06-19 18:16:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	BUY	150	29¢	$44	0x978909…
06-19 17:06:49	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	106	35¢	$37	0x680cce…
06-17 14:19:08	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	109	37¢	$40	0xc9f612…
06-12 07:47:13	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	SELL	59	55¢	$33	0x366d84…
06-05 15:25:57	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	60	47¢	$28	0x9fc592…
06-04 21:05:40	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	59	66¢	$39	0xfefda6…
06-01 19:00:15	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	No	BUY	60	42¢	$25	0x535573…
05-28 18:08:58	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	48	51¢	$24	0xf03f7d…
05-28 18:08:25	US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	39	84¢	$33	0x6515d2…
05-28 18:07:27	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	79	83¢	$66	0xebc367…
05-23 21:09:27	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	36	70¢	$25	0xe2f37a…
05-23 21:07:49	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	Yes	SELL	93	79¢	$74	0x0d751a…
05-23 21:07:33	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	SELL	70	85¢	$60	0xf315f0…
05-23 18:47:15	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	70	92¢	$64	0x946d9b…
05-22 19:58:52	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	BUY	70	67¢	$47	0x127a68…
05-22 19:46:57	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	Yes	BUY	93	54¢	$50	0x54c91e…
05-21 14:19:14	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	77	92¢	$71	0x594ee8…
05-19 19:59:10	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	70	59¢	$41	0x627dc3…
05-19 07:03:57	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	43	96¢	$41	0x18498f…
05-13 17:50:58	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x67a7e5…
05-13 17:49:43	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	83	76¢	$63	0x8eb2ea…
05-11 19:50:33	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	36	61¢	$22	0x5ca65c…
05-11 19:49:09	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	56	35¢	$19	0xf89cb4…
05-08 22:35:07	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x2f9d47…
05-08 22:31:56	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	54	95¢	$51	0xf9a26a…
04-28 02:45:34	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	44	85¢	$37	0xcf9d63…
04-28 02:45:18	Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0xa65a59…
04-26 20:27:16	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	54	74¢	$40	0x39af02…
04-26 20:24:44	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	SELL	32	98¢	$31	0x7c2f1b…
04-26 20:23:46	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	66	53¢	$35	0x35430f…
04-23 18:25:02	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	56	63¢	$35	0x3cba18…
04-22 19:30:48	Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	45	6¢	$3	0x188b39…
04-22 19:30:28	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	44	87¢	$38	0x63c2e5…
04-22 19:29:10	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	SELL	56	76¢	$42	0x5cf826…
04-18 13:30:22	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	BUY	56	63¢	$35	0x530541…
04-17 03:35:30	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	44	68¢	$30	0x4b7819…
04-15 10:26:00	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0x5b5e13…
04-14 17:57:12	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	43	81¢	$35	0x0a230c…
04-14 13:39:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	55¢	$22	0xbf4c09…
04-14 13:39:07	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	58	39¢	$22	0x27cb61…
04-14 13:38:45	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	30	95¢	$29	0x1bad5a…
04-14 13:38:27	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	No	SELL	51	17¢	$9	0x6859bc…
04-13 11:50:53	Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	45	51¢	$23	0xa0806b…
04-13 11:47:39	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	58	61¢	$35	0xe7c8be…
04-11 19:36:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	27	54¢	$15	0x2d0880…
04-11 19:30:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0xa2bdae…
04-11 19:29:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xdcd270…
04-08 18:53:37	Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	54	67¢	$36	0xb908e7…
04-08 09:13:29	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	25	91¢	$23	0x0426bc…
04-08 09:12:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	58	83¢	$48	0xce7218…
04-07 14:00:19	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	58	69¢	$40	0x8eb1a6…
04-06 16:46:49	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0xb5daf0…
04-05 21:42:45	will tisza win 130 seats in the hungarian national assembly in this election	No	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0x82c0ec…
04-05 17:53:13	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	59	68¢	$40	0x56f558…
04-05 17:52:51	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	No	BUY	51	69¢	$35	0xc2f0dc…
04-04 18:35:51	Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	54	74¢	$40	0x7aecb3…
04-03 13:26:03	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	SELL	60	82¢	$49	0x659b19…
04-02 16:07:19	Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	46	83¢	$38	0x09e45d…
04-02 16:06:09	will tisza win 130 seats in the hungarian national assembly in this election	No	BUY	19	77¢	$15	0x6ca1a5…
03-31 06:03:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	25	83¢	$21	0xaf6a00…
03-30 19:46:49	will trump meet with delcy rodrguez by march 31 446	Yes	SELL	34	0¢	$0	0xe25f95…
03-29 01:32:42	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	BUY	25	67¢	$17	0xa300d1…
03-28 16:09:17	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	SELL	41	97¢	$40	0x908275…
03-27 17:21:13	will the dhs shutdown end after march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	11	24¢	$3	0x3b2b9a…
03-27 17:20:39	will the dhs shutdown end after march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	14	44¢	$6	0x1bd0a6…
03-27 16:56:33	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	25	80¢	$20	0xb4a7df…
03-27 16:56:21	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	No	SELL	25	93¢	$23	0x12efed…
03-26 08:11:29	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	25	53¢	$13	0x1f3bb4…
03-25 13:13:55	Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0x8873fa…
03-23 03:59:19	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	SELL	57	86¢	$49	0x345599…
03-23 03:58:35	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0x51712f…
03-23 03:57:35	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	59	50¢	$30	0x524add…
03-23 01:11:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	25	58¢	$14	0x79f8d5…
03-22 18:04:03	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	24	82¢	$20	0x18a1a5…
03-21 05:00:45	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	25	74¢	$18	0x701723…
03-20 10:36:11	Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	BUY	41	73¢	$30	0x67e29c…
03-18 10:49:57	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	BUY	60	58¢	$35	0x013080…
03-16 16:59:43	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	SELL	25	85¢	$21	0x94d5bc…
03-15 21:28:07	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	No	BUY	25	65¢	$16	0x5ee47a…
03-15 17:33:03	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	36	86¢	$31	0x1bae52…
03-15 17:32:03	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	SELL	61	65¢	$40	0x7b1a49…
03-15 16:07:39	will the dhs shutdown end after march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	25	67¢	$17	0x7af513…
03-11 14:43:15	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	61	49¢	$30	0xae9fa7…
03-11 14:42:55	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0x2fbd0f…
03-09 19:22:21	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	BUY	25	58¢	$14	0xa1ddee…
03-08 18:23:47	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	SELL	50	71¢	$36	0xbbaabd…
03-08 10:44:33	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	25	52¢	$13	0xd7a236…