Flawed-Thrill — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.91K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$50

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-06 10:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 44 days

Categories

Other

47% 97% +$2

Crypto

38% 95% $0

Politics

14% 100% +$1

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	1	$102	102	0	+102	No	+$0	05-28 03:32
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	1	$102	102	0	+102	No	+$0	05-17 06:22
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in May 2026?	1	$102	102	0	+102	No	+$0	05-25 03:21
us strikes iran by february 15 2026	1	$101	102	0	+102	No	+$1	02-15 06:15
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	1	$101	101	0	+101	No	+$0	05-10 02:15
bitcoin above 62k on april 6	1	$101	101	0	+101	Yes	+$0	04-06 05:25
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15?	1	$101	101	0	+101	Yes	+$0	05-13 10:33
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	1	$101	101	0	+101	No	+$0	05-05 03:46
bitcoin above 78k on june 6 2026	1	$101	101	0	+101	No	+$0	06-05 02:48
will the us next strike iran on february 10 2026 et	1	$101	101	0	+101	No	+$0	02-11 03:28
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 180 199	1	$101	101	0	+101	No	+$0	02-03 09:36
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 240 259	1	$101	101	0	+101	No	+$0	01-31 02:13
bitcoin above 80k on march 17	1	$101	101	0	+101	No	+$0	03-17 07:24
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 220 239	1	$100	101	0	+101	No	+$0	01-27 03:16
elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 80 99	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	01-22 04:00
bitcoin above 74k on march 27	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	03-27 06:19
elon musk of tweets january 17 january 19 0 39	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	01-17 09:03
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 180 199	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	01-08 09:15
highest temperature in nyc on april 10 2026 68 69f	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	04-10 08:23
bitcoin above 78k on march 13	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	03-13 03:37
bitcoin above 70k on april 17	1	$99	99	0	+99	Yes	+$0	04-17 03:19
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 360 379	1	$99	99	0	+99	No	+$0	04-12 06:26
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 480 499	1	$98	98	0	+98	No	+$0	03-31 10:58
will the price of bitcoin be greater than 82000 on march 24	1	$97	98	0	+98	No	+$0	03-23 03:41
bitcoin above 84k on april 23	1	$97	97	0	+97	No	+$0	04-23 03:08
bitcoin above 60k on march 7	1	$95	95	0	+95	Yes	+$0	03-07 06:59
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 31?	1	$84	84	0	+84	Yes	+$0	05-30 10:44
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	+$0	06-21 06:12
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	1	$41	41	0	+41	Yes	+$0	06-10 03:47
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	1	$31	31	0	+31	No	+$0	06-10 03:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-06 10:35:07	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x0fb122…
10-06 10:28:16	Southern Miss vs. Troy	Troy	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x47ba45…
09-21 10:23:09	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xf6a2ec…
09-21 10:20:47	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 in September?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x8e0d9d…
08-28 13:59:40	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by August 31?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x3b1e1a…
07-24 06:09:42	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xe91d54…
06-21 06:12:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x9e6f05…
06-14 06:58:55	Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6940f1…
06-14 06:58:45	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 14?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc35476…
06-14 06:58:30	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in June 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x86392a…
06-14 06:58:21	ethereum above 1900 on june 14 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x329c96…
06-14 06:58:07	bitcoin above 58k on june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7ca62e…
06-14 06:57:57	bitcoin above 56k on june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1926dc…
06-14 06:57:48	bitcoin above 68k on june 14 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb429bd…
06-10 03:49:36	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x04e431…
06-10 03:47:57	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	99¢	$41	0x8adbc6…
06-10 03:34:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xa26037…
06-05 02:48:36	bitcoin above 78k on june 6 2026	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x5766f4…
05-30 10:44:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 31?	Yes	BUY	84	100¢	$84	0xb0c7ff…
05-30 10:41:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30?	No	BUY	400	0¢	$1	0x654244…
05-30 10:40:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x024765…
05-28 03:32:03	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0xa9e7b3…
05-25 03:21:18	Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in May 2026?	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x756537…
05-17 06:22:00	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x4c6c32…
05-13 10:33:35	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xdb0a91…
05-10 02:15:03	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0xfa72bc…
05-05 03:46:02	Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x7c1bbc…
04-23 03:08:54	bitcoin above 84k on april 23	No	BUY	97	100¢	$97	0xd25525…
04-23 03:08:44	will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on april 23	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x408128…
04-23 03:08:34	Will Amazon have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf70047…
04-23 03:08:26	Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe573e3…
04-17 03:19:40	bitcoin above 70k on april 17	Yes	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x77306b…
04-17 03:19:28	Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3c2a5b…
04-17 03:19:16	Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb1c9f5…
04-12 06:26:19	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 360 379	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0x60fcbc…
04-12 06:25:49	will ankimobile flashcards be 1 paid app in the us apple app store on april 14	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x648488…
04-12 06:19:01	will ethereum dip to 1900 april 6 12	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xaecd36…
04-10 08:23:31	highest temperature in nyc on april 10 2026 68 69f	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xb219fa…
04-10 08:16:17	elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 165 189	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xf500a4…
04-06 05:25:27	bitcoin above 62k on april 6	Yes	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x1d4bf1…
03-31 10:58:17	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 480 499	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x0e2aef…
03-31 10:58:03	will the price of bitcoin be between 60000 62000 on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xefcbec…
03-31 10:57:53	will google gemini be 1 free app in the us apple app store on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x674672…
03-27 06:19:13	bitcoin above 74k on march 27	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x8e5f1c…
03-23 03:41:05	will the price of bitcoin be greater than 82000 on march 24	No	BUY	98	100¢	$97	0x997ad2…
03-17 07:24:17	bitcoin above 80k on march 17	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x83547d…
03-13 03:37:29	bitcoin above 78k on march 13	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x9e6669…
03-07 06:59:13	bitcoin above 60k on march 7	Yes	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0xa41416…
03-07 06:58:55	will zai have the top ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x651438…
03-07 06:58:41	will google be 2 free app in the us apple app store on march 10	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x974b54…
02-15 06:15:51	us strikes iran by february 15 2026	No	BUY	102	99¢	$101	0x4403cf…
02-11 03:28:45	will the us next strike iran on february 10 2026 et	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x0fca8c…
02-03 09:36:22	elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 180 199	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x15ce83…
01-31 02:13:50	elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 240 259	No	BUY	101	100¢	$101	0x0a6ecc…
01-27 03:16:37	elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 220 239	No	BUY	101	100¢	$100	0x30b04a…
01-22 04:00:06	elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 80 99	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x10793c…
01-17 09:03:00	elon musk of tweets january 17 january 19 0 39	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xa0785d…
01-08 09:15:39	elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 180 199	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x78fe6e…