Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$96

Unrealized P&L

+$11

Hit rate

83.2%

Resolved

191

Trades

293

lifetime

Volume

$3.95K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$144

5 positions

First seen

2026-06-25

last 11-01 11:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 35 days

Categories

Other

67% 63% +$4

Politics

29% 85% +$81

Crypto

3% 95% $0

Tech

2% 100% +$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	+65	$53	97¢	$63	+$9	10-21 06:10
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	+50	$48	98¢	$49	+$1	10-15 18:07
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	+30	$27	90¢	$27	+$0	10-31 22:14
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+5	$4	95¢	$5	+$0	10-26 23:37
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	No	+1	$1	94¢	$1	+$0	11-01 11:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will USD be between 2.5M and 2.8M Iranian rials on September 30?	4	$108	105	105	+0	Yes	+$87	09-30 11:46
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.42% in September?	4	$100	94	94	+0	Yes	+$79	09-24 17:50
will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt10 in september	2	$82	79	79	+0	Yes	+$60	09-23 19:15
Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?	2	$58	69	0	+69	No	-$58	10-28 20:33
Will Dems win fewer than 8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	1	$57	65	0	+65	open	—	10-27 03:07
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours?	1	$56	63	0	+63	Yes	+$7	10-30 05:21
Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?	3	$56	63	0	+63	Yes	+$7	10-26 05:02
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?	1	$56	69	0	+69	Yes	+$13	10-25 07:56
Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	3	$54	65	0	+65	Yes	+$12	10-20 22:05
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	2	$53	65	0	+65	open	—	10-21 06:10
Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31?	1	$53	55	0	+55	No	+$2	10-29 19:11
Will Dan S. Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by 0%-3%?	4	$53	65	0	+65	open	—	11-01 05:55
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?	1	$53	65	0	+65	No	+$12	10-19 16:04
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	3	$53	59	0	+59	No	+$6	10-19 16:09
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	2	$52	56	0	+56	No	+$4	10-18 09:10
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	3	$51	54	0	+54	Yes	+$3	10-15 10:14
Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	1	$51	61	0	+61	Yes	+$10	10-18 08:59
Will "You Can See Everything" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	2	$50	52	0	+52	Yes	+$1	10-13 12:39
Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m?	1	$49	60	0	+60	No	+$11	10-10 05:52
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	1	$48	50	0	+50	open	—	10-15 18:07
Will Craig Hodge win the 2026 Coquitlam mayoral election?	2	$47	56	0	+56	Yes	+$9	10-16 08:13
Will OpenRouter process between 625T and 675T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?	1	$46	52	0	+52	No	+$6	10-21 15:05
Will Otzma Yehudit win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	2	$44	49	0	+49	No	+$5	10-27 03:33
Will Olivier Faure win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	1	$42	48	0	+48	No	+$6	10-09 18:12
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of October 2026?	2	$40	42	0	+42	open	—	10-31 18:54
Will PPI YoY be 5.3% in September?	3	$40	45	0	+45	No	+$5	10-14 15:10
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be between 1.6% and 1.8%?	2	$40	57	0	+57	No	+$17	10-09 15:13
Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September?	2	$40	61	0	+61	Yes	-$40	10-09 20:07
Will Petr Hlaváček be the next Mayor of Prague?	4	$39	63	0	+63	open	—	10-09 17:51
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?	3	$39	59	0	+59	No	+$20	10-12 16:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 11:59:58	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x7d418f…
11-01 05:55:42	Will Dan S. Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by 0%-3%?	No	BUY	22	81¢	$18	0x4a2197…
10-31 22:19:25	Will Dan S. Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by 0%-3%?	No	BUY	27	81¢	$22	0x93ac6e…
10-31 22:14:16	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0xab566e…
10-31 20:01:03	Will Dan S. Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by 0%-3%?	No	BUY	11	81¢	$9	0x5bee58…
10-31 18:54:21	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	96¢	$21	0x98f0f3…
10-31 18:44:07	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xe64f8b…
10-31 18:13:21	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0x5c1939…
10-31 11:59:09	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x1c94a0…
10-31 11:48:57	Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$4	0xe17f66…
10-30 09:06:57	Will Dan S. Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by 0%-3%?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xca29af…
10-30 09:01:49	Will Google be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0xcc24ff…
10-30 08:36:12	Will Google be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0x5f1e22…
10-30 05:21:21	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours?	Yes	BUY	63	89¢	$56	0xbe3f82…
10-30 04:35:15	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	14	82¢	$12	0xb275b1…
10-29 19:16:25	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x263497…
10-29 19:11:18	Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31?	No	BUY	55	97¢	$53	0xd9664f…
10-29 19:11:18	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	Yes	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xc4f356…
10-29 19:06:12	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x2fa885…
10-29 19:01:01	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	13	89¢	$11	0x807c3b…
10-29 14:03:44	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?	No	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0xd11012…
10-29 04:04:23	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 8.5% to 9.5%?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xd6baf8…
10-29 03:43:56	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 8.5% to 9.5%?	No	BUY	19	92¢	$17	0xf539d8…
10-28 20:38:28	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xb1b4f2…
10-28 20:33:20	Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	81¢	$15	0x427cd0…
10-28 20:17:56	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x494844…
10-28 20:07:40	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 8.5% to 9.5%?	No	BUY	0	92¢	$0	0x43d1df…
10-28 20:02:32	Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xdfa7cb…
10-28 09:22:05	Will Warsh say "Good Day" during October Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x4705e2…
10-28 08:51:19	Will the Republicans win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x57219d…
10-28 06:05:59	Will Warsh say "Good Day" during October Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0x194cad…
10-27 17:20:21	Will Warsh say "Good Day" during October Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	9	95¢	$9	0x5f032c…
10-27 03:33:23	Will Otzma Yehudit win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	43	89¢	$38	0x35c116…
10-27 03:12:47	Will Otzma Yehudit win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x4f9556…
10-27 03:07:39	Will Dems win fewer than 8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	65	87¢	$57	0x116de6…
10-26 23:37:05	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x8723dd…
10-26 05:02:18	Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	33	89¢	$29	0x7566ef…
10-26 05:02:18	Will Alex Nuttall win the 2026 Barrie mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	39	89¢	$35	0x44e583…
10-26 04:31:27	Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xc73902…
10-26 03:14:20	Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	25	89¢	$22	0x88e7f2…
10-25 16:26:42	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0x4907e0…
10-25 13:21:33	Will Jeff Leiper win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xc3d1bf…
10-25 10:21:30	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	15	82¢	$12	0x609086…
10-25 10:00:56	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x289ac7…
10-25 09:24:54	Will UTJ win fewer than 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	15	81¢	$12	0x06fa40…
10-25 09:03:44	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x658da4…
10-25 08:53:26	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x5f564a…
10-25 08:07:08	Will UTJ win fewer than 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x1a323c…
10-25 08:01:59	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 31?	Yes	BUY	39	85¢	$33	0x536b44…
10-25 07:56:48	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	9	81¢	$7	0x24b93e…
10-25 07:56:47	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?	Yes	BUY	69	81¢	$56	0xc95f2d…
10-24 04:38:57	Will "Wildwood" score at least 98 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa8e975…
10-23 15:28:48	Will Jodie Wickens win the next Coquitlam-Burke Mountain British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x081234…
10-23 12:54:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	42	93¢	$39	0x974eb3…
10-23 12:48:51	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in September?	No	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x72eab3…
10-22 16:50:06	Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x19574f…
10-22 06:31:14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xa8968b…
10-22 04:12:27	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x0420aa…
10-22 04:07:18	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x93fe1b…
10-21 23:03:45	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	8	81¢	$6	0xa8d112…
10-21 19:22:44	Will Igor Kršiak win the 2026 Nitra mayoral election?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xf2be9b…
10-21 15:10:56	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	Yes	BUY	28	94¢	$26	0x588eb5…
10-21 15:05:48	Will OpenRouter process between 625T and 675T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?	No	BUY	52	89¢	$46	0xc52773…
10-21 06:10:35	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xed9fbd…
10-21 06:05:26	Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	9	83¢	$7	0x5bc297…
10-21 06:05:26	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	BUY	55	82¢	$45	0x27ac51…
10-20 22:05:47	Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Yes	BUY	37	82¢	$30	0x91f713…
10-20 18:28:15	Will US win 45-50% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0x2311e2…
10-20 18:17:53	Will Harwinder Sandhu win the next Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	No	BUY	23	83¢	$19	0x140fb9…
10-20 18:07:33	Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Yes	BUY	22	82¢	$18	0xa53a7d…
10-20 18:07:33	Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	No	BUY	15	82¢	$12	0xa26fd2…
10-20 18:02:21	Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Yes	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xb077a6…
10-20 18:02:21	Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x475f2a…
10-20 04:13:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	BUY	7	81¢	$6	0x0c6ae8…
10-20 02:15:03	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xa4eec2…
10-19 16:50:45	Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x09cfa7…
10-19 16:09:15	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	BUY	8	82¢	$7	0xe80fe7…
10-19 16:09:15	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	No	BUY	25	89¢	$22	0xa92110…
10-19 16:04:05	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?	No	BUY	65	81¢	$53	0x83354f…
10-19 16:04:05	Will the Bank of Korea hold at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x35fe67…
10-19 04:19:33	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	No	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0x5617d2…
10-18 12:06:03	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	No	BUY	21	89¢	$19	0x44f85a…
10-18 11:45:21	Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%?	No	BUY	14	94¢	$13	0x9341ae…
10-18 09:20:39	Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin <30%?	No	BUY	32	92¢	$29	0x239933…
10-18 09:20:39	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0x0dd64f…
10-18 09:10:20	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	46	93¢	$43	0xdb206a…
10-18 09:04:59	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x5ffc2d…
10-18 08:59:48	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	84¢	$51	0x822e5d…
10-18 08:49:27	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	No	BUY	26	89¢	$23	0x0b8f46…
10-16 17:56:08	Will the Bank of Korea hold at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x8a735d…
10-16 16:38:18	Will the Bank of Korea hold at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x468711…
10-16 08:13:45	Will Craig Hodge win the 2026 Coquitlam mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0xe4f734…
10-15 18:49:56	Will "You Can See Everything" score at least 94 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	28	97¢	$27	0xa952d0…
10-15 18:07:59	Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xd801af…
10-15 10:29:44	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0xbde181…
10-15 10:14:10	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	Yes	BUY	18	97¢	$17	0x15b890…
10-15 06:25:43	will sense and sensibility score at least 78 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	No	BUY	32	64¢	$20	0xe4bd4e…
10-14 15:10:58	Will PPI YoY be 5.3% in September?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x393262…
10-14 15:10:36	Will PPI YoY be 5.3% in September?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x59a93a…
10-14 15:05:25	Will PPI YoY be 5.3% in September?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x1c0121…