Unripe-Craftsman — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$436

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

88.2%

Resolved

Trades

438

lifetime

Volume

$120.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$274

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-31

last 08-06 07:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

62% 75% $-614

Other

33% 100% +$190

Crypto

3% — —

Tech

2% — —

Sports

0% 0% $-12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	32	$7.2K	4,805	2,805	+2,000	open	—	05-29 19:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	3	$6.9K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	05-10 10:04
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	15	$5.4K	1,855	3,646	-1,791	open	—	06-26 07:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	9	$4.6K	3,135	2,135	+1,000	open	—	05-29 19:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	2	$4.4K	3,500	1,000	+2,500	No	+$116	05-11 08:02
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	11	$3.5K	7,000	1,000	+6,000	open	—	06-02 09:49
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	6	$3.5K	1,820	1,820	+0	open	—	05-27 19:00
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	4	$2.9K	1,000	2,000	-1,000	open	—	06-27 07:13
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	5	$2.8K	1,000	1,910	-910	open	—	07-02 20:01
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	24	$2.8K	2,609	1,160	+1,449	open	—	05-11 20:43
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	16	$2.7K	2,162	1,761	+401	open	—	05-25 16:50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	1	$2.7K	2,800	0	+2,800	No	+$101	05-07 21:21
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	17	$2.6K	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	04-13 21:38
ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	5	$2.5K	1,437	1,187	+249	open	—	08-06 00:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	9	$2.1K	2,212	0	+2,212	open	—	05-21 16:11
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	3	$2.1K	2,300	0	+2,300	open	—	04-22 15:04
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by june 15	7	$2.0K	1,040	1,040	+0	open	—	06-12 04:32
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	2	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-19 13:50
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	9	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	08-03 15:02
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	2	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-02 18:06
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	5	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	06-11 07:46
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	2	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	07-29 13:59
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-26 20:35
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	5	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-13 17:15
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-24 16:47
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	3	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	06-19 06:57
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	4	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	06-15 17:32
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	6	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-13 17:10
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	2	$1.8K	1,996	0	+1,996	open	—	06-28 07:31
russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	4	$1.8K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	07-02 20:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-06 07:36:29	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	300	65¢	$195	0x47798d…
08-06 00:15:51	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	No	SELL	135	99¢	$133	0xfed11a…
08-05 18:41:23	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x23678a…
08-05 17:48:50	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	400	94¢	$378	0x418a84…
08-05 16:21:33	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x76ad39…
08-05 14:42:12	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	7	89¢	$7	0x6e8155…
08-05 14:36:23	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x60d665…
08-03 15:02:56	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	115	100¢	$114	0x6c9f54…
08-03 15:01:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xe20cfa…
08-03 15:00:11	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	333	100¢	$333	0x4170e2…
08-03 15:00:11	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	115	100¢	$115	0x0a42d6…
08-03 14:59:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x93f49a…
08-03 14:58:17	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	119	100¢	$119	0x3ada53…
08-03 14:51:11	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	264	100¢	$263	0x31d070…
08-03 07:19:38	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x348937…
08-02 12:38:14	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xf4dbef…
08-02 12:37:50	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0x98934b…
08-02 08:13:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	71	26¢	$18	0xbf7890…
08-02 07:55:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	1,000	97¢	$968	0x54334a…
08-02 07:47:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	229	26¢	$60	0xca7280…
08-02 07:46:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	1,000	11¢	$110	0xe5c771…
08-01 15:28:15	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232 846	No	SELL	170	58¢	$99	0xf6bc52…
08-01 14:28:47	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xd55123…
08-01 14:13:45	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x244d13…
08-01 14:13:26	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	44	81¢	$36	0x1d97b9…
07-31 11:56:02	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	No	BUY	1,000	97¢	$974	0xa3dd01…
07-31 11:55:12	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	No	SELL	1,000	98¢	$977	0xcf8f5b…
07-29 17:57:48	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	122	94¢	$115	0x8e3650…
07-29 17:45:23	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xcacd13…
07-29 17:38:48	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xaf0e93…
07-29 17:23:47	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x58006d…
07-29 16:16:38	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	55	94¢	$52	0x654772…
07-29 16:14:42	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	55	94¢	$52	0x332bdd…
07-29 16:13:15	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	55	94¢	$52	0x7aa92c…
07-29 16:07:09	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x54da6a…
07-29 15:06:29	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	52	94¢	$49	0x597538…
07-29 14:01:53	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232 846	No	BUY	170	38¢	$65	0xb708a2…
07-29 14:00:38	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0xc05ee5…
07-29 14:00:23	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	410	94¢	$386	0xfb5e2c…
07-29 13:59:45	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	1,000	100¢	$997	0xf612d2…
07-18 21:35:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	1,000	11¢	$110	0xae9b9e…
07-18 21:35:04	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	300	19¢	$57	0x6ace4f…
07-18 21:31:39	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$958	0x2da899…
07-18 21:28:22	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	No	BUY	500	68¢	$339	0x73ad0f…
07-02 20:01:40	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	1,000	100¢	$998	0xedf735…
07-02 20:00:13	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	No	BUY	1,000	88¢	$880	0x0898b9…
06-28 21:18:14	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	SELL	72	24¢	$18	0xd17e96…
06-28 21:17:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	SELL	128	28¢	$36	0x2cffbe…
06-28 20:44:44	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	200	23¢	$46	0x0bdd4e…
06-28 08:50:02	Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?	No	SELL	194	100¢	$193	0x2d0458…
06-28 07:45:56	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	500	98¢	$492	0x0213c0…
06-28 07:31:08	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	496	87¢	$432	0x12bef5…
06-28 07:23:17	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	No	BUY	65	82¢	$53	0xf5d019…
06-28 07:22:58	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	No	BUY	410	82¢	$336	0x2cc0d1…
06-28 07:22:20	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	No	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0xce38ff…
06-27 07:13:14	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	900	100¢	$898	0x8e484d…
06-26 07:14:19	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,500	89¢	$1,335	0x4d1787…
06-26 07:09:53	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	No	BUY	493	88¢	$434	0xc301b0…
06-26 07:08:32	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	SELL	300	2¢	$6	0xbf0a28…
06-26 07:04:55	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	No	BUY	1,437	93¢	$1,336	0xdb66d7…
06-26 07:04:07	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	2,791	99¢	$2,771	0x91eb04…
06-26 07:03:44	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	209	99¢	$208	0x30b41d…
06-24 15:33:44	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xd0fe8f…
06-24 15:32:50	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	No	BUY	500	88¢	$440	0x3857fa…
06-24 15:32:14	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	No	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0xfb0756…
06-23 16:45:16	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x3e1eb6…
06-23 16:40:37	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	No	BUY	150	86¢	$129	0x60fdb3…
06-23 16:39:34	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	110	95¢	$104	0x443c32…
06-23 16:39:05	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	34	95¢	$32	0x579cf9…
06-23 16:39:05	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x306430…
06-23 16:38:50	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x4bd69a…
06-23 16:38:37	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x6d0dfe…
06-23 16:37:47	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	1,000	98¢	$982	0x97e2fa…
06-22 21:34:43	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0xf4f3f4…
06-22 19:41:02	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	BUY	1,000	98¢	$980	0x0add56…
06-22 19:29:37	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	No	BUY	250	87¢	$218	0x115dab…
06-22 19:16:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	500	49¢	$245	0xd08de4…
06-22 13:10:58	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	250	87¢	$216	0x3a750a…
06-22 07:43:41	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xa108de…
06-22 07:43:19	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	176	92¢	$162	0x2e22c5…
06-22 07:43:19	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	92¢	$22	0x07507e…
06-22 06:08:10	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	150	30¢	$45	0x53936f…
06-22 06:07:29	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0xca8176…
06-22 06:07:29	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	148	30¢	$44	0x1e8ce6…
06-22 06:05:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	500	41¢	$205	0xc19313…
06-21 18:31:08	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	545	99¢	$540	0x6ee53b…
06-21 18:29:08	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	53	5¢	$3	0x69609a…
06-21 18:28:11	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	107	5¢	$5	0x51127a…
06-21 18:25:53	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	140	4¢	$6	0xc06dd6…
06-21 18:11:01	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	260	89¢	$230	0x9825ee…
06-21 15:56:44	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	91¢	$910	0x9a6c9b…
06-19 07:02:32	Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?	No	BUY	194	94¢	$182	0x2ba3b1…
06-19 06:57:25	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	SELL	1,000	100¢	$999	0x0cb807…
06-18 20:50:37	russia ukraine peace talks by june 30 2026 20260609012542187	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x2b8823…
06-18 20:48:40	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	SELL	500	99¢	$495	0x100da9…
06-18 08:15:35	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0xa00522…
06-18 08:11:47	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	1,000	99¢	$992	0xf784ef…
06-18 08:07:40	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	800	92¢	$736	0xe03720…
06-17 17:11:41	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	101	98¢	$99	0x635166…
06-17 15:39:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	500	57¢	$285	0xaba975…