Oily-Toll — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$920

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

75.0%

Resolved

Trades

178

lifetime

Volume

$8.79K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$49

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-16

last 06-13 03:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

70% 100% +$940

Other

15% — —

Crypto

11% — —

Sports

4% 0% $-20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	2	$1.6K	1,404	1,404	+0	open	—	03-01 04:22
will bitcoin reach 70k february 23 march 1	5	$925	3,125	3,125	+0	open	—	03-01 02:33
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 1 334	15	$862	41,576	0	+41,576	open	—	03-02 05:49
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	2	$752	7,143	3,643	+3,500	open	—	05-23 19:43
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	15	$595	1,330	1,330	+0	open	—	03-23 03:22
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	3	$400	625	625	+0	open	—	05-23 19:43
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	1	$400	4,444	0	+4,444	open	—	06-13 03:51
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	1	$300	2,308	0	+2,308	open	—	05-16 02:24
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 22 2026 392	4	$225	128,230	0	+128,230	open	—	03-23 03:22
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?	3	$210	625	625	+0	open	—	04-06 18:12
khamenei seen in public by march 2 179 218 146	3	$201	5,152	0	+5,152	open	—	03-01 00:08
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	2	$200	15,385	0	+15,385	open	—	06-12 03:47
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	2	$180	11,111	11,111	+0	open	—	02-19 23:00
sp 500 breaks its losing streak this week	3	$150	1,900	0	+1,900	open	—	04-02 12:54
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	5	$140	4,172	0	+4,172	open	—	05-23 20:11
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	18	$117	4,000	2,000	+2,000	open	—	02-24 22:52
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?	3	$108	625	625	+0	open	—	04-06 18:12
spx up or down on february 19 2026	1	$100	1,250	0	+1,250	open	—	02-19 19:17
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1	$100	400	0	+400	open	—	02-19 19:16
spx up or down on april 8 2026	3	$100	50,000	0	+50,000	open	—	04-08 19:35
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	1	$100	2,664	0	+2,664	open	—	02-28 15:13
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 2 645 466 285 492	11	$86	660	0	+660	open	—	03-02 05:36
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?	4	$73	500	500	+0	open	—	04-06 18:12
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31?	5	$67	3,734	0	+3,734	open	—	05-29 14:09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	1	$60	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$940	04-02 04:12
will khamenei leave iran by february 28 2026 713 559	1	$59	2,567	0	+2,567	open	—	02-19 19:23
will trump say fuck or fucking during monday news conference	1	$50	2,500	0	+2,500	open	—	04-06 18:21
will the dhs shutdown end between february 20 23 2026	1	$50	1,644	0	+1,644	open	—	02-16 12:40
will the dhs shutdown end between february 24 27 2026	1	$50	238	0	+238	open	—	02-16 12:41
will the dhs shutdown end between february 28 march 3 2026	1	$50	294	0	+294	open	—	02-16 12:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-13 03:51:42	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,444	9¢	$400	0x737b14…
06-12 03:47:01	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3,568	1¢	$46	0xa7ac2e…
06-12 03:45:58	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	BUY	11,817	1¢	$154	0x483705…
05-29 14:09:05	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3,252	2¢	$59	0x61856a…
05-29 06:45:03	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x23e0a7…
05-29 06:40:58	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31?	Yes	BUY	345	2¢	$6	0x7bab68…
05-28 21:59:34	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31?	Yes	BUY	107	2¢	$2	0xb9bf8c…
05-28 21:58:34	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31?	Yes	BUY	19	2¢	$0	0xee3a69…
05-23 20:11:22	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2,816	3¢	$84	0x7b344d…
05-23 19:49:39	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x2a1957…
05-23 19:49:37	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x982df1…
05-23 19:48:37	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	BUY	500	4¢	$18	0xf01736…
05-23 19:48:15	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	522	3¢	$16	0x1062b1…
05-23 19:43:45	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	3,643	14¢	$502	0x6c26a5…
05-23 19:43:22	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	625	48¢	$300	0x929b22…
05-23 03:19:37	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	580	16¢	$93	0x26e242…
05-23 03:11:55	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	16¢	$7	0x647b4a…
05-23 02:37:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	832	5¢	$40	0x356c21…
05-23 02:17:20	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,932	2¢	$37	0x2f374b…
05-18 09:03:56	Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	360	3¢	$12	0xd5bb1d…
05-18 06:40:20	Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	131	3¢	$4	0x788238…
05-18 01:24:38	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	7,143	3¢	$250	0xf8fd1d…
05-18 00:56:00	Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x04ba8b…
05-18 00:55:56	Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	3¢	$32	0x4f7262…
05-18 00:55:39	Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x991b62…
05-17 20:39:34	Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	3¢	$1	0x98d75a…
05-16 02:24:17	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Timberwolves	BUY	2,308	13¢	$300	0x8c9147…
05-14 10:00:20	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x838d0f…
05-14 09:17:29	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	182	1¢	$2	0xf23da9…
05-14 08:12:00	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	224	1¢	$2	0xafcddd…
05-14 05:35:49	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	658	1¢	$6	0x4523a1…
05-14 05:00:40	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	1¢	$0	0x31552b…
05-14 04:17:00	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	1¢	$0	0x1da9b7…
05-14 04:13:23	St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics	St. Louis Cardinals	BUY	2,008	1¢	$20	0x7dd647…
05-14 04:08:05	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	Yes	BUY	2,857	1¢	$20	0x3e768b…
04-08 19:35:55	spx up or down on april 8 2026	Down	BUY	19,984	0¢	$40	0xdede24…
04-08 19:35:35	spx up or down on april 8 2026	Down	BUY	20,016	0¢	$40	0xa7ff13…
04-08 19:34:33	spx up or down on april 8 2026	Down	BUY	10,000	0¢	$20	0x92dc4e…
04-08 06:46:45	will jd vance say venezuela during meetings with orbn	Yes	BUY	386	4¢	$17	0xbc20e3…
04-08 03:38:47	will jd vance say venezuela during meetings with orbn	Yes	BUY	22	4¢	$1	0x982a73…
04-08 02:46:21	will jd vance say venezuela during meetings with orbn	Yes	BUY	12	4¢	$1	0x4ced3b…
04-07 19:28:51	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be 20 or more on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x60f163…
04-07 19:28:49	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be 20 or more on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x7dc09e…
04-07 19:18:19	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be 20 or more on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x6dfaa5…
04-07 19:18:13	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be 20 or more on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xace75a…
04-07 17:32:33	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be 20 or more on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	93	10¢	$9	0xd283cf…
04-07 17:23:19	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be 20 or more on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xaf038b…
04-07 17:18:17	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be 20 or more on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0x458462…
04-07 17:03:43	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be 20 or more on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	12	10¢	$1	0x253030…
04-07 16:41:41	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be 20 or more on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	8	10¢	$1	0x2c31ec…
04-07 16:14:53	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be 20 or more on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xe81d83…
04-07 16:14:53	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be 20 or more on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xb7506a…
04-07 15:25:09	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be 20 or more on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x6994c8…
04-07 03:27:09	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be 20 or more on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	37	10¢	$4	0xb3dc9a…
04-07 03:27:09	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be 20 or more on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	33	10¢	$3	0x7d7c35…
04-07 03:27:09	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be 20 or more on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x5d1e0b…
04-07 03:26:37	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be 20 or more on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	3	10¢	$0	0xa55941…
04-07 03:26:13	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be 20 or more on april 12 2026	Yes	BUY	7	10¢	$1	0x9f0fb4…
04-06 18:24:19	will trump say moon during monday news conference	Yes	BUY	77	29¢	$22	0xc15aa2…
04-06 18:24:17	will trump say moon during monday news conference	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xc823d3…
04-06 18:24:13	will trump say moon during monday news conference	Yes	BUY	25	29¢	$7	0x947003…
04-06 18:24:13	will trump say moon during monday news conference	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x22937e…
04-06 18:21:37	will trump say fuck or fucking during monday news conference	Yes	BUY	2,500	2¢	$50	0xed8c18…
04-06 18:12:45	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?	No	SELL	500	5¢	$23	0xcc7e5b…
04-06 18:12:17	US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	625	9¢	$58	0x73b9a4…
04-06 18:12:11	US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?	Yes	SELL	625	26¢	$160	0x88791c…
04-02 14:19:47	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?	No	BUY	460	10¢	$46	0x9d67a4…
04-02 13:45:57	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x3c8cff…
04-02 12:54:39	sp 500 breaks its losing streak this week	No	BUY	1,884	8¢	$149	0x86ca8d…
04-02 12:53:21	sp 500 breaks its losing streak this week	No	BUY	8	8¢	$1	0x29e853…
04-02 12:53:15	sp 500 breaks its losing streak this week	No	BUY	8	8¢	$1	0x0c4114…
04-02 12:52:09	Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x50243a…
04-02 06:19:57	US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	599	8¢	$48	0xb46431…
04-02 06:19:45	US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?	Yes	BUY	249	8¢	$20	0xc50251…
04-02 04:18:09	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	Yes	BUY	75	1¢	$0	0xfa3a0b…
04-02 04:12:25	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	6¢	$60	0x732561…
04-02 04:07:21	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,184	1¢	$7	0x237fcc…
04-02 04:01:55	US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	26	8¢	$2	0xb065a4…
04-02 04:01:31	US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?	Yes	BUY	376	8¢	$30	0xcdfa08…
04-02 03:58:57	will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the strait of hormuz on april 3	Yes	BUY	33	0¢	$0	0xddda54…
04-02 03:57:07	will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the strait of hormuz on april 3	Yes	BUY	846	1¢	$10	0xfbec12…
03-23 03:22:53	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 22 2026 392	No	BUY	126,390	0¢	$126	0xcbe2e3…
03-23 03:22:29	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	SELL	665	19¢	$126	0xc2c21c…
03-23 02:05:23	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 22 2026 392	No	BUY	330	0¢	$2	0x8c3155…
03-22 20:51:31	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 22 2026 392	No	BUY	1,410	6¢	$90	0x0aa8d1…
03-22 20:44:17	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 22 2026 392	No	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0xe118f4…
03-22 07:07:03	mojtaba khamenei leaves iran by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	17	2¢	$0	0x2b5efd…
03-22 04:32:49	mojtaba khamenei leaves iran by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,877	2¢	$30	0xfbe50c…
03-22 02:03:43	mojtaba khamenei leaves iran by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	459	2¢	$7	0x4e1c74…
03-22 02:02:53	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	SELL	665	20¢	$136	0x5e060a…
03-19 03:38:51	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	43	25¢	$11	0x43dc8c…
03-19 03:38:13	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	0	25¢	$0	0x8c68c2…
03-19 03:35:49	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	1,000	25¢	$250	0x4ffc92…
03-19 03:33:13	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	0	25¢	$0	0x8226a1…
03-19 03:28:11	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	0	25¢	$0	0xb497f0…
03-19 03:23:09	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x2aab32…
03-19 03:18:43	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	7	25¢	$2	0x288131…
03-19 03:18:09	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0xad014e…
03-19 03:13:07	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0xa51cd4…
03-19 03:08:05	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0xa4c951…