Probable-Plum — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

13.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$392

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-04

last 05-06 00:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 26% +$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 43 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	3	$32	10	25	-15	open	—	05-05 15:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	3	$26	10	20	-10	open	—	05-05 18:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	2	$24	5	20	-15	open	—	05-05 20:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	2	$22	5	20	-15	open	—	05-05 15:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	1	$19	0	20	-20	open	—	05-05 16:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	Down	$-0	05-05 01:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	Up	$-0	05-04 21:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	Up	$-0	05-04 23:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	Down	$-0	05-04 20:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	Down	$-0	05-04 21:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	Down	$-0	05-05 01:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	Down	$-0	05-04 23:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	Down	$-0	05-05 00:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	open	—	05-05 18:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	Up	$-0	05-04 23:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	open	—	05-05 20:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	Up	$-0	05-04 22:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	Up	$-0	05-04 21:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	open	—	05-05 20:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	5	$10	20	10	+10	open	—	05-05 18:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	Down	$-0	05-04 22:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	open	—	05-06 00:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	Up	$-0	05-05 00:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	1	$10	0	10	-10	Down	$-0	05-04 22:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	1	$8	10	0	+10	Down	+$2	05-05 03:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	2	$8	10	0	+10	open	—	05-05 16:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	2	$8	10	0	+10	open	—	05-05 15:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	1	$7	10	0	+10	Up	+$3	05-05 03:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	1	$7	10	0	+10	open	—	05-05 06:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	2	$7	10	0	+10	open	—	05-05 15:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-06 00:13:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x4c28a1…
05-05 20:44:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x6ba48a…
05-05 20:24:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x209bfa…
05-05 20:14:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x5fad54…
05-05 20:03:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x8e216d…
05-05 20:01:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x6114cf…
05-05 18:54:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xdb6562…
05-05 18:54:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x9a8b3d…
05-05 18:54:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x11dcc2…
05-05 18:52:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x1686a9…
05-05 18:52:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xc4f519…
05-05 18:33:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xf705d2…
05-05 18:33:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xfbeb68…
05-05 18:32:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	SELL	5	29¢	$1	0x18f7e0…
05-05 18:24:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x02edbc…
05-05 18:24:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x8aba8f…
05-05 18:24:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x27ce0f…
05-05 18:09:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x7c60f7…
05-05 17:58:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x1cc18c…
05-05 16:59:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x47af5a…
05-05 16:27:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x3415b2…
05-05 16:27:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xb1fc13…
05-05 15:59:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0x4a73db…
05-05 15:57:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x1b782f…
05-05 15:49:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x1afd9a…
05-05 15:44:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	SELL	25	95¢	$24	0xbd2ca7…
05-05 15:44:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x56a29c…
05-05 15:44:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x9304cb…
05-05 15:39:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	SELL	25	12¢	$3	0xe6aecf…
05-05 15:34:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x527753…
05-05 15:34:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xdeb607…
05-05 15:27:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x91a2c2…
05-05 15:22:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xf9d997…
05-05 15:22:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x92fcc9…
05-05 07:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x01899b…
05-05 06:35:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x3a6bef…
05-05 03:27:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0xfdac62…
05-05 03:10:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x515f38…
05-05 01:55:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x01ec0a…
05-05 01:34:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x6a3826…
05-05 01:04:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x22b926…
05-05 00:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0xbb98b2…
05-05 00:24:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xd1a4cd…
05-05 00:19:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0x966643…
05-04 23:59:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0x69408b…
05-04 23:54:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xf0b552…
05-04 23:49:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x68051f…
05-04 23:24:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x791301…
05-04 22:44:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0xe499f9…
05-04 22:29:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x0cd588…
05-04 22:14:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x8ff284…
05-04 21:34:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x364be8…
05-04 21:29:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x1e35ea…
05-04 21:14:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x7d6f46…
05-04 20:04:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xeef470…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xe907…cff6	38	$8.07K	171	05-06 00:14
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	30	$9.82K	170	05-06 00:14
Slight-Goodnight 0x6088…f361	27	$1.35K	85	05-06 00:13
Rash-Alternative 0xf353…6685	26	$1.52K	93	05-06 00:13
Sentimental-Differential 0x510a…d77f	26	$731	77	05-06 00:13
Little-Fraction 0xcfb1…f694	24	$3.25K	63	05-06 00:14
Nice-Prejudice 0xfb0f…0b02	24	$1.93K	349	05-06 00:13
Upset-Sight 0xe022…6603	24	$1.87K	183	05-06 00:13