Somber-Creativity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$912

Unrealized P&L

+$71

Hit rate

92.0%

Resolved

Trades

7,561

lifetime

Volume

$3.55M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$469

Open exposure

$865

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-20 17:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

55% 88% +$911

Other

39% 100% +$1

Sports

5% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

53 active days in 12wk • peak 41 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No		+1,088	$794	80¢	$865	+$71	06-03 02:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	79	$161.5K	85,234	85,234	+0	open	—	04-28 15:25
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	372	$124.9K	95,333	47,486	+47,847	open	—	03-31 09:11
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	101	$95.0K	96,399	0	+96,399	open	—	01-07 16:04
will us or israel strike iran on march 6 2026	50	$91.0K	91,205	0	+91,205	open	—	03-06 11:22
will us or israel strike iran on march 9 2026	21	$82.8K	83,239	0	+83,239	open	—	03-09 17:46
will us or israel strike iran on march 10 2026	39	$80.1K	81,324	0	+81,324	open	—	03-10 10:54
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	28	$79.0K	61,675	18,776	+42,900	open	—	07-20 17:29
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	134	$74.4K	67,599	12,011	+55,588	open	—	02-01 02:48
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	78	$68.3K	34,351	35,710	-1,359	open	—	01-12 11:05
will us or israel strike iran on march 4 2026	68	$64.1K	64,296	0	+64,296	open	—	03-04 15:11
will us or israel strike iran on march 8 2026	32	$60.2K	60,321	0	+60,321	open	—	03-08 15:08
will us or israel strike iran on march 3 2026	20	$58.0K	58,349	0	+58,349	open	—	03-03 07:27
will donald trump attend super bowl lx	98	$54.6K	55,324	0	+55,324	open	—	02-08 21:56
will us or israel strike iran on march 7 2026	19	$51.4K	51,571	0	+51,571	open	—	03-07 11:51
will us or israel strike iran on march 5 2026	38	$50.7K	51,002	0	+51,002	open	—	03-05 07:29
will us or israel strike iran on march 2 2026	51	$47.3K	47,630	0	+47,630	open	—	03-02 08:56
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	83	$46.2K	48,663	0	+48,663	open	—	04-12 07:51
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	45	$44.7K	35,308	13,638	+21,670	open	—	04-30 13:22
will us or israel strike iran on march 1 2026	41	$42.0K	42,512	0	+42,512	open	—	03-01 09:13
new stranger things episode released by february 28 564 799 718 478 643 635 547	8	$40.9K	20,527	20,527	+0	open	—	02-28 06:31
israel x iran ceasefire broken by march 31 2026 312 682	48	$39.7K	41,721	1,000	+40,721	open	—	02-28 06:36
will cardi b perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	114	$39.5K	54,952	54,952	+0	open	—	02-09 02:01
will tim walz drop out by	74	$38.2K	19,918	19,961	-43	open	—	01-05 14:18
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	64	$37.6K	30,547	8,369	+22,178	open	—	06-29 03:59
will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	119	$35.9K	19,717	18,402	+1,315	open	—	01-30 12:37
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	54	$34.7K	31,493	4,063	+27,431	open	—	02-28 07:01
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	29	$32.5K	32,834	0	+32,834	open	—	03-08 08:04
will jd vance attend super bowl lx	70	$31.9K	32,350	0	+32,350	open	—	02-08 18:03
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	6	$31.4K	27,918	4,369	+23,549	open	—	05-25 14:49
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	113	$30.1K	27,650	26,413	+1,236	open	—	02-01 02:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 17:29:00	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	397	98¢	$388	0xab9b68…
07-20 17:21:45	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	48	98¢	$47	0xbd01d8…
07-20 16:22:55	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	4,369	93¢	$4,063	0x10783f…
07-20 16:22:01	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	No	SELL	2,633	99¢	$2,615	0xa2906f…
07-20 16:13:27	will trump speak to masoud pezeshkian in july 20260626154217438	No	BUY	49	99¢	$48	0x83149b…
07-19 06:51:04	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	3,000	96¢	$2,868	0x881811…
07-19 06:46:10	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	4,569	96¢	$4,368	0xf4d05a…
07-19 06:43:39	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	71	96¢	$68	0x191aa4…
07-19 06:43:34	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	2,267	96¢	$2,169	0x266178…
07-19 06:42:40	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	1,369	96¢	$1,309	0x923248…
07-17 11:29:19	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	7,500	98¢	$7,320	0x97930e…
07-13 03:00:37	will kanye west attend taylor swifts wedding	No	BUY	8	99¢	$7	0x6b073b…
07-13 03:00:34	will kanye west attend taylor swifts wedding	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x18e664…
07-13 03:00:32	will kanye west attend taylor swifts wedding	No	SELL	304	100¢	$303	0x6626aa…
07-12 04:31:05	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1,347	95¢	$1,281	0xa6cd99…
07-12 04:26:02	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x733e94…
07-12 04:25:16	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x10a650…
07-11 22:41:40	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	2,559	96¢	$2,469	0xf688be…
07-11 22:40:56	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	310	97¢	$299	0x0a1cfc…
07-11 22:40:17	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	2,500	96¢	$2,412	0x2f6d4a…
07-11 02:53:11	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	No	BUY	514	98¢	$504	0x63667c…
07-11 02:51:44	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	BUY	160	96¢	$154	0xedf030…
07-11 02:50:35	iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	No	BUY	271	96¢	$261	0xc0b461…
07-08 03:05:22	will graham platner drop out by july 17 974 785 861	Yes	BUY	39	91¢	$36	0x55de72…
07-08 03:02:49	will graham platner drop out by july 17 974 785 861	Yes	BUY	390	91¢	$356	0xbf891a…
07-08 02:58:46	will graham platner drop out by july 17 974 785 861	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x3a5a01…
07-08 02:58:37	will graham platner drop out by july 17 974 785 861	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x39c115…
07-08 02:48:46	will graham platner drop out by july 17 974 785 861	Yes	BUY	1,042	92¢	$964	0x85ad4c…
07-07 17:31:02	will grahm platner drop out before the midterms 20260608200746523 993 791 462 396 195 772	Yes	BUY	1,125	99¢	$1,113	0x2dade5…
07-07 17:30:56	will graham platner drop out by july 17 974 785 861	Yes	BUY	84	97¢	$81	0xa5a042…
07-07 17:30:56	will graham platner drop out by july 17 974 785 861	Yes	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0x686a75…
07-07 17:30:46	will graham platner drop out by july 31 281 424 921	Yes	BUY	1,208	98¢	$1,190	0x011915…
07-07 06:54:19	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	No	BUY	1,369	98¢	$1,340	0x61a370…
07-07 06:53:37	will kanye west attend taylor swifts wedding	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x2a57eb…
07-06 07:35:59	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	6,368	99¢	$6,323	0xf44c8b…
07-06 06:00:56	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	214	99¢	$213	0xd5362d…
07-06 05:56:08	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	311	99¢	$309	0x3db6ff…
07-06 05:52:31	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	211	99¢	$210	0xc6e80e…
07-06 01:27:59	will kanye west attend taylor swifts wedding	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x69c53a…
07-06 00:26:47	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	2,000	99¢	$1,986	0xe8eea3…
07-05 19:10:10	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	574	99¢	$570	0xf05052…
07-05 16:23:17	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	429	99¢	$426	0xe5e097…
07-05 11:56:05	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	37	99¢	$37	0x122a4b…
07-05 07:54:49	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	8,885	99¢	$8,823	0x811304…
07-05 07:47:14	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	150	99¢	$149	0x08387d…
07-05 07:41:05	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	5,821	99¢	$5,781	0xd0abff…
07-05 01:21:47	will kanye west attend taylor swifts wedding	No	BUY	197	100¢	$196	0x62953e…
07-05 00:02:11	will trump speak to masoud pezeshkian in july 20260626154217438	No	BUY	305	97¢	$296	0x9dedcc…
07-04 22:47:37	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	5,365	99¢	$5,311	0x4f8424…
07-03 20:34:13	will trump speak to keir starmer in july 20260626154217432	Yes	SELL	240	92¢	$221	0x6def3e…
07-03 12:16:43	will trump speak to keir starmer in july 20260626154217432	Yes	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0xadd980…
07-03 07:46:49	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	9,832	99¢	$9,704	0xebfa09…
07-03 07:35:10	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	654	99¢	$645	0xf4d7fa…
07-03 06:35:43	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	701	99¢	$692	0xaaf2b2…
07-03 06:33:25	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	369	99¢	$364	0x2839c4…
07-02 16:10:38	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	3,767	97¢	$3,635	0x01d92c…
07-01 22:58:08	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	80	97¢	$77	0x0f656a…
07-01 17:58:50	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	12	96¢	$12	0x10b28e…
07-01 14:53:56	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x7ed4a4…
07-01 12:36:04	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	410	97¢	$396	0xa0e0f5…
06-29 10:16:43	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	3,043	98¢	$2,985	0xefb831…
06-29 10:15:26	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	5,000	98¢	$4,905	0xb6aca0…
06-29 10:11:47	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	457	98¢	$448	0x08b612…
06-29 03:59:08	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	753	100¢	$753	0xddd8c4…
06-29 03:58:56	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xdad6e9…
06-29 03:58:56	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	7,596	100¢	$7,588	0x6e38b1…
06-29 03:37:02	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	10,810	98¢	$10,594	0x4d6e6c…
06-29 03:30:55	will trump meet with xi jinping in july 2026 20260626153701907	No	BUY	968	98¢	$946	0x2b2bd5…
06-29 03:27:32	will trump speak to keir starmer in july 20260626154217432	Yes	BUY	16	87¢	$14	0xabf555…
06-29 03:23:53	will trump speak to keir starmer in july 20260626154217432	Yes	BUY	144	83¢	$119	0x602706…
06-29 03:23:46	will trump speak to keir starmer in july 20260626154217432	Yes	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xd79114…
06-29 03:17:50	will trump speak to kim jong un in july 20260626154217424	No	BUY	139	96¢	$133	0x0efcc0…
06-29 03:16:25	will trump speak to pope leo xiv in july 20260626154217441	No	BUY	91	92¢	$84	0x314d9a…
06-29 03:15:16	will trump speak to mark rutte in july 20260626154217435	Yes	BUY	537	97¢	$520	0x40ce78…
06-29 03:13:47	Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	931	100¢	$929	0x989736…
06-29 03:12:05	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	No	BUY	906	99¢	$898	0xf7afe3…
06-29 03:11:47	will the us announce a blockade on iran by june 30 20260622191116911	No	BUY	569	98¢	$557	0x29c374…
06-29 03:09:34	will the us announce a blockade on iran by june 30 20260622191116911	No	BUY	700	98¢	$684	0x113f79…
06-29 03:02:37	will trump meet with joseph aoun in june 2026	No	BUY	103	99¢	$102	0x4672a7…
06-28 21:38:44	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x8f6358…
06-28 21:33:11	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	No	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0x9e56ff…
06-24 16:57:01	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	No	BUY	548	91¢	$499	0x7c9bb9…
06-24 16:41:44	taylor swift x travis kelce get married by august 31	Yes	BUY	494	97¢	$479	0x4bd6ed…
06-24 16:41:31	taylor swift x travis kelce get married by august 31	Yes	BUY	331	95¢	$316	0xb4ff3d…
06-22 20:14:11	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	No	BUY	21	91¢	$19	0x6b86fe…
06-22 15:41:53	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by july 31 20260616200232527	No	BUY	167	92¢	$154	0xc1a699…
06-17 16:34:38	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	2,306	99¢	$2,290	0xfcc428…
06-17 16:25:43	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x8e43b7…
06-17 16:18:19	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x531cf1…
06-16 13:36:34	kharg island no longer under iranian control by june 24	No	BUY	1,915	100¢	$1,905	0xa149d3…
06-16 13:15:26	kharg island no longer under iranian control by june 24	No	BUY	454	100¢	$452	0x2a89bb…
06-16 12:05:34	kharg island no longer under iranian control by june 24	No	BUY	986	99¢	$981	0x200882…
06-13 16:36:40	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	122	100¢	$122	0xb056e4…
06-13 12:40:57	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x51e612…
06-13 11:15:15	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0x45c642…
06-13 08:20:39	israel closes its airspace by june 13	No	BUY	197	99¢	$195	0xddc107…
06-13 08:09:43	israel closes its airspace by june 13	No	BUY	569	99¢	$564	0xc2d192…
06-13 07:40:37	israel closes its airspace by june 13	No	BUY	272	99¢	$270	0x552fec…
06-13 06:37:51	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	751	98¢	$732	0x9d7a90…
06-13 06:37:18	Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026?	Yes	BUY	270	98¢	$266	0x7cb1ec…