Failing-Foxglove — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$12

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

169

lifetime

Volume

$112.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$663

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-16

last 06-03 19:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

87% 100% +$12

Politics

12% — —

Other

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 64k on march 10	2	$3.7K	1,845	1,845	+0	open	—	03-10 09:39
bitcoin above 82k on april 24	2	$3.3K	1,673	1,672	+1	open	—	04-24 05:45
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	1	$2.5K	2,610	0	+2,610	open	—	06-03 19:57
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6?	1	$2.4K	2,385	0	+2,385	No	+$2	05-06 14:25
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 2?	1	$2.4K	2,381	0	+2,381	open	—	05-02 00:07
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4?	2	$2.4K	2,380	0	+2,380	open	—	05-04 06:06
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$2.3K	2,462	0	+2,462	open	—	05-27 15:46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$2.3K	2,300	0	+2,300	open	—	05-14 20:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	1	$2.2K	2,320	0	+2,320	open	—	05-26 14:55
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	1	$2.2K	2,256	0	+2,256	open	—	05-26 00:52
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 25?	1	$2.2K	2,239	0	+2,239	open	—	05-24 13:40
bitcoin above 76k on april 12	1	$2.2K	2,220	0	+2,220	open	—	04-12 03:19
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22?	1	$2.2K	2,227	0	+2,227	open	—	05-21 17:24
will bitcoin dip to 63k on april 5	1	$2.2K	2,156	0	+2,156	open	—	04-06 00:07
bitcoin above 64k on april 4	1	$2.1K	2,151	0	+2,151	open	—	04-04 10:40
megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	14	$2.1K	1,182	1,182	+0	open	—	04-27 09:13
bitcoin above 64k on march 29	2	$2.1K	2,082	0	+2,082	open	—	03-29 08:25
bitcoin above 70k on march 27	1	$2.0K	2,070	0	+2,070	open	—	03-27 10:39
bitcoin up or down on march 26 2026	4	$2.0K	2,045	0	+2,045	open	—	03-26 15:21
bitcoin above 68k on march 25	1	$2.0K	2,040	0	+2,040	open	—	03-25 12:10
bitcoin above 70k on march 23	1	$2.0K	2,033	0	+2,033	open	—	03-23 15:06
bitcoin above 66k on april 7	13	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	04-07 14:07
ethereum above 2200 on march 20	1	$2.0K	1,997	0	+1,997	open	—	03-20 14:15
bitcoin above 72k on april 20	6	$2.0K	1,970	0	+1,970	open	—	04-20 14:02
will bitcoin dip to 68k april 13 19	1	$2.0K	1,968	0	+1,968	open	—	04-20 00:23
bitcoin above 68k on april 10	8	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	04-09 18:52
bitcoin above 74k on april 21	4	$2.0K	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	04-21 13:07
bitcoin above 68k on april 17	1	$2.0K	1,953	0	+1,953	open	—	04-16 19:56
bitcoin above 76k on march 19	3	$1.9K	1,960	0	+1,960	open	—	03-18 20:04
bitcoin above 68k on april 16	2	$1.9K	1,920	0	+1,920	open	—	04-15 17:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-03 19:57:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	2,610	96¢	$2,508	0x2e6726…
05-27 15:46:48	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,462	95¢	$2,330	0xa89975…
05-26 14:55:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	2,320	97¢	$2,250	0xa39c8b…
05-26 00:52:22	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	No	BUY	2,256	99¢	$2,240	0x4a4dec…
05-24 13:40:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 25?	Yes	BUY	2,239	100¢	$2,230	0xf99bbf…
05-21 17:24:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22?	Yes	BUY	2,227	99¢	$2,210	0x8bc0ad…
05-21 17:21:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	800	67¢	$536	0x2f634a…
05-20 00:39:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20?	No	BUY	1,670	100¢	$1,662	0xbad333…
05-16 23:04:34	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 11-17?	No	BUY	201	99¢	$200	0xa95382…
05-16 20:58:08	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 11-17?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x0c99f4…
05-16 15:27:19	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 11-17?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xdab7d8…
05-16 14:34:54	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x074035…
05-16 14:33:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	800	90¢	$720	0x235f41…
05-14 20:51:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1,300	100¢	$1,294	0x34996f…
05-14 01:18:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$990	0xa01174…
05-11 13:42:51	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x95ce56…
05-11 13:42:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xc86e2a…
05-11 13:42:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xb9f0c7…
05-11 13:41:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11?	Yes	BUY	1,920	100¢	$1,910	0xbcd8a4…
05-11 13:41:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x85d93d…
05-06 14:25:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6?	No	BUY	2,385	100¢	$2,383	0x22c56f…
05-04 06:06:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4?	Yes	BUY	66	100¢	$66	0x892a52…
05-04 06:06:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4?	Yes	BUY	2,314	100¢	$2,307	0x8b43c0…
05-02 00:07:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 2?	Yes	BUY	2,381	100¢	$2,374	0xdc2071…
04-30 18:04:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1?	No	BUY	1,079	100¢	$1,078	0xd586ee…
04-28 21:40:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29?	No	BUY	213	99¢	$211	0x0260f8…
04-28 21:32:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29?	No	BUY	787	99¢	$776	0x23d695…
04-27 09:13:24	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0x95150e…
04-27 09:07:00	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	SELL	12	90¢	$11	0x640455…
04-27 09:05:14	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	SELL	21	90¢	$19	0x198048…
04-27 08:51:08	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	SELL	200	90¢	$180	0xe3ed15…
04-27 08:40:52	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	SELL	17	90¢	$15	0x22f6b7…
04-27 08:39:46	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	SELL	34	90¢	$31	0xd578d0…
04-27 08:37:02	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x872903…
04-27 08:31:48	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	SELL	77	90¢	$70	0x3c1712…
04-27 08:31:36	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	SELL	9	90¢	$8	0xaa2eea…
04-27 08:25:10	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	SELL	7	90¢	$6	0x3cb38d…
04-27 08:16:26	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0xb8e5e2…
04-27 08:01:28	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x804bd8…
04-27 07:35:12	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	SELL	692	90¢	$623	0x4bc1b0…
04-26 13:40:18	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	BUY	1,182	88¢	$1,040	0x6f14b3…
04-26 13:39:32	Insurrection Act invoked by April 30?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xb04d1e…
04-26 13:39:18	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x73e58d…
04-26 13:38:50	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0xd19345…
04-26 13:38:36	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x78bc5b…
04-26 13:38:28	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xa59139…
04-24 05:45:26	bitcoin above 82k on april 24	No	SELL	1,672	100¢	$1,669	0x23c499…
04-23 21:35:20	bitcoin above 82k on april 24	No	BUY	1,673	99¢	$1,663	0xe149d7…
04-23 19:05:04	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	500	95¢	$476	0x26eee0…
04-23 17:38:00	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	SELL	165	71¢	$118	0xcd8170…
04-21 22:17:56	bitcoin above 72k on april 22	Yes	BUY	897	98¢	$880	0x3958d5…
04-21 13:07:02	bitcoin above 74k on april 21	Yes	BUY	1,784	98¢	$1,754	0x7ff0c2…
04-21 13:04:38	bitcoin above 74k on april 21	Yes	BUY	59	98¢	$58	0x21d7d6…
04-21 13:04:34	bitcoin above 74k on april 21	Yes	BUY	136	98¢	$133	0x11166f…
04-21 13:04:28	bitcoin above 74k on april 21	Yes	BUY	22	98¢	$21	0x2048bd…
04-20 14:02:26	bitcoin above 72k on april 20	Yes	BUY	1,367	100¢	$1,364	0xa3b06d…
04-20 14:01:28	bitcoin above 72k on april 20	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x527409…
04-20 14:00:32	bitcoin above 72k on april 20	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x4ccdda…
04-20 13:59:58	bitcoin above 72k on april 20	Yes	BUY	57	100¢	$57	0xc4b30e…
04-20 13:59:26	bitcoin above 72k on april 20	Yes	BUY	502	100¢	$501	0x6cc8af…
04-20 13:56:26	bitcoin above 72k on april 20	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x5a90fa…
04-20 00:23:54	will bitcoin dip to 68k april 13 19	No	BUY	1,968	100¢	$1,966	0x6e2403…
04-17 19:29:44	bitcoin above 72k on april 18	Yes	BUY	1,465	99¢	$1,450	0xc37604…
04-16 19:56:12	bitcoin above 68k on april 17	Yes	BUY	1,953	100¢	$1,951	0xec79bf…
04-15 19:36:56	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April?	No	BUY	45	99¢	$45	0x4ef6dd…
04-15 19:15:06	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	BUY	3	88¢	$2	0xddd33a…
04-15 19:14:10	megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	No	BUY	162	88¢	$143	0x5c851c…
04-15 19:10:30	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April?	No	BUY	55	99¢	$55	0xdf496c…
04-15 17:44:54	bitcoin above 68k on april 16	Yes	BUY	1,620	100¢	$1,617	0x20ef69…
04-15 17:23:38	Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x1f6631…
04-15 17:23:08	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x0a75b5…
04-15 17:22:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x60ab1d…
04-15 17:21:44	Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x08ed91…
04-15 17:20:58	bitcoin above 68k on april 16	Yes	BUY	300	100¢	$299	0xf0302c…
04-12 03:19:25	bitcoin above 76k on april 12	No	BUY	2,220	100¢	$2,215	0x88165e…
04-09 18:52:25	bitcoin above 68k on april 10	Yes	BUY	596	98¢	$586	0xc3faef…
04-09 17:00:41	bitcoin above 68k on april 10	Yes	BUY	540	98¢	$531	0x054e83…
04-09 16:28:23	bitcoin above 68k on april 10	Yes	BUY	59	98¢	$58	0x9ba105…
04-09 16:28:17	bitcoin above 68k on april 10	Yes	BUY	59	98¢	$58	0x1a8287…
04-09 16:25:45	bitcoin above 68k on april 10	Yes	BUY	59	98¢	$58	0x68d386…
04-09 16:23:23	bitcoin above 68k on april 10	Yes	BUY	500	98¢	$491	0x5dd326…
04-09 16:17:57	bitcoin above 68k on april 10	Yes	BUY	118	98¢	$116	0xb480a3…
04-09 16:16:51	bitcoin above 68k on april 10	Yes	BUY	70	98¢	$69	0x7f44b8…
04-07 14:07:13	bitcoin above 66k on april 7	Yes	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x7d2030…
04-07 14:07:09	bitcoin above 66k on april 7	Yes	BUY	260	99¢	$257	0xfe9303…
04-07 14:07:09	bitcoin above 66k on april 7	Yes	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x44c42f…
04-07 13:49:05	bitcoin above 66k on april 7	Yes	BUY	69	99¢	$68	0x90be9a…
04-07 13:48:43	bitcoin above 66k on april 7	Yes	BUY	18	99¢	$17	0xec4eac…
04-07 13:48:17	bitcoin above 66k on april 7	Yes	BUY	88	99¢	$87	0xa1f7c7…
04-07 13:47:49	bitcoin above 66k on april 7	Yes	BUY	233	99¢	$230	0x270fca…
04-07 13:47:21	bitcoin above 66k on april 7	Yes	BUY	154	99¢	$152	0xe7e8b0…
04-07 13:45:41	bitcoin above 66k on april 7	Yes	BUY	488	99¢	$481	0x645bfd…
04-07 13:45:13	bitcoin above 66k on april 7	Yes	BUY	135	99¢	$134	0x3e39c5…
04-07 13:44:35	bitcoin above 66k on april 7	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x78e730…
04-07 13:44:27	bitcoin above 66k on april 7	Yes	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x6468c1…
04-07 13:40:29	bitcoin above 66k on april 7	Yes	BUY	506	99¢	$500	0xc54b96…
04-06 00:07:19	will bitcoin dip to 63k on april 5	No	BUY	2,156	100¢	$2,151	0xbc75f4…
04-04 10:40:17	bitcoin above 64k on april 4	Yes	BUY	2,151	100¢	$2,149	0x6faea3…
04-01 02:53:23	bitcoin above 64k on april 1	Yes	BUY	800	99¢	$789	0x8a9ae7…
03-31 10:43:57	bitcoin above 64k on march 31	Yes	BUY	1,386	98¢	$1,352	0xf22ada…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	61	$313.9K	4,540	06-07 19:09
Intelligent-Length 0xdb5a…3965	57	$527.4K	4,215	05-23 20:00
Reasonable-Mover 0x0f62…922e	57	$2.00K	58	05-24 17:50
Deserted-Bitter 0x3690…e16f	52	$80.9K	1,017	05-20 22:00
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	51	$10.1K	4,047	04-17 03:45
Incomparable-Outrage 0x3085…7568	51	$2.05K	1,112	04-18 10:04
Joyous-Wrist 0x8970…36b5	47	$158.2K	1,332	05-24 06:25
(anonymous) 0xb6fe…7394	46	$355.9K	5,345	04-28 05:14