Shocked-Overshoot — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.75K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

53.3%

Resolved

28,321

Trades

76,693

lifetime

Volume

$348.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-05

last 10-30 03:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 246 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 49% -$4,389

Other

5% 48% +$472

Sports

1% 49% +$52

Politics

0% 75% +$108

Tech

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 1045 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-26 12:45 UTC	23	$372	336	312	+24	Up	-$68	02-26 12:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-26 12:50 UTC	17	$276	335	307	+28	Down	-$44	02-26 12:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-26 07:10 UTC	13	$275	238	219	+19	Down	+$54	02-26 07:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 05:30 UTC	18	$242	237	235	+3	Down	+$95	02-25 05:32
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-10 11:15 UTC	28	$238	170	100	+70	Down	-$21	06-10 11:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-26 13:20 UTC	13	$235	183	166	+17	Up	+$12	02-26 13:24
bitcoin up or down on april 3 2026	33	$226	476	253	+223	Up	-$96	04-03 15:12
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	15	$192	300	0	+300	No	-$192	06-25 21:07
Will England win on 2026-07-05?	16	$179	300	0	+300	Yes	+$121	07-06 02:28
fifwc cvi ksa 2026 06 26 first corner	26	$177	300	0	+300	Cabo Verde	+$123	06-26 16:42
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 05:00 UTC	20	$172	160	158	+2	Down	+$10	03-02 05:04
bitcoin up or down april 5 2026 9am et	33	$171	244	150	+94	Up	+$59	04-05 13:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 15:10 UTC	18	$159	161	149	+12	Up	+$1	02-25 15:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 2AM ET	21	$145	190	10	+180	Down	+$46	10-10 06:11
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-05 21:15 UTC	20	$144	114	66	+48	Down	-$5	06-05 21:24
bitcoin up or down april 9 2026 5am et	18	$141	181	0	+181	Up	+$40	04-09 09:19
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-13 21:15 UTC	25	$139	140	60	+80	Up	+$0	06-13 21:26
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-10 11:15 UTC	18	$138	110	50	+60	Down	-$12	06-10 11:27
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-14 02:00 UTC	16	$137	120	40	+80	Up	-$20	06-14 02:13
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	10	$134	200	0	+200	Yes	+$66	06-24 19:07
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-10 18:30 UTC	17	$133	120	40	+80	Down	-$17	06-10 18:41
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-08 19:15 UTC	16	$133	130	30	+100	Up	-$16	06-08 19:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-26 07:35 UTC	8	$132	114	97	+17	Down	-$8	02-26 07:36
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	14	$129	260	0	+260	Yes	+$131	06-28 01:11
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	9	$127	180	0	+180	Yes	+$53	06-24 02:07
dota2 aur1 gl 2026 08 13	22	$124	100	87	+13	Aurora	-$1	08-13 07:17
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-14 06:45 UTC	22	$124	140	40	+100	Up	-$15	06-14 06:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 14:40 UTC	24	$120	391	0	+391	Down	+$271	02-25 14:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC	18	$119	120	40	+80	Up	-$16	06-14 17:13
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 09:30 UTC	31	$118	115	80	+35	Up	-$27	06-04 09:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 03:01:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xc432cf…
10-30 03:01:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x5904a7…
10-30 03:00:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	1	50¢	$0	0x48c6a9…
10-30 03:00:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x381e1b…
10-30 03:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x0b7145…
10-30 03:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x05fe80…
10-30 03:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x22b35e…
10-30 02:00:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xdb24cb…
10-30 01:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x3672d5…
10-30 01:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xe8d7e8…
10-30 00:00:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 8PM ET	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x77c2bd…
10-29 23:00:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x298f4a…
10-29 23:00:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x5961b2…
10-29 23:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xe4e009…
10-29 23:00:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xe83c1d…
10-29 23:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x19c734…
10-29 22:15:46	Solana Up or Down - October 29, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0xf1d485…
10-29 22:13:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 6PM ET	Down	SELL	10	54¢	$5	0xa6b4ec…
10-29 22:12:30	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xd386e6…
10-29 22:11:22	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x4900c5…
10-29 22:08:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0x1cbce9…
10-29 22:08:01	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x75e052…
10-29 22:07:37	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x1b769e…
10-29 22:00:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x61b47a…
10-29 22:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x62ae6e…
10-29 22:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xdb1913…
10-29 22:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xbf9c41…
10-29 22:00:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xc1851d…
10-29 21:26:58	Solana Up or Down - October 29, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x5ab8b3…
10-29 21:11:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 5PM ET	Down	SELL	10	41¢	$4	0xc26d99…
10-29 21:10:58	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0xa9be7b…
10-29 21:06:27	Solana Up or Down - October 29, 5PM ET	Down	SELL	8	50¢	$4	0xa56b3a…
10-29 21:05:21	Solana Up or Down - October 29, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x0c1f4e…
10-29 21:05:16	Solana Up or Down - October 29, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xcd3113…
10-29 21:04:22	Solana Up or Down - October 29, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xf3964d…
10-29 21:01:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5PM ET	Down	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0x18210d…
10-29 21:00:48	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 5PM ET	Down	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x561521…
10-29 21:00:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xc1bc99…
10-29 21:00:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0xe6ce8b…
10-29 21:00:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x9f9777…
10-29 21:00:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xe01d97…
10-29 21:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0xe9cffd…
10-29 21:00:13	Solana Up or Down - October 29, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x4c8cf0…
10-29 21:00:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x408b59…
10-29 20:45:25	Silver Up or Down - October 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xfd4b34…
10-29 20:45:25	Gold Up or Down - October 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x35ed50…
10-29 20:45:25	Silver Up or Down - October 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x014352…
10-29 20:45:19	Gold Up or Down - October 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xfd1bf4…
10-29 15:26:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11AM ET	Up	SELL	10	85¢	$8	0x379222…
10-29 15:25:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x0eb090…
10-29 15:25:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x99be20…
10-29 15:17:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11AM ET	Up	SELL	8	76¢	$6	0xf1080f…
10-29 15:17:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xd1f5dc…
10-29 15:10:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0xdb2a23…
10-29 14:30:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x41b2ca…
10-29 14:30:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0x25c603…
10-29 14:27:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xc94d87…
10-29 14:22:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10AM ET	Up	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0x3f4564…
10-29 14:22:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x472fbd…
10-29 14:20:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x3bdf1f…
10-29 13:52:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x890189…
10-29 13:38:58	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0xb5ae55…
10-29 13:38:38	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x75c4bc…
10-29 13:38:32	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0xd9628d…
10-29 13:08:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xacbeb7…
10-29 13:05:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x0fd7d8…
10-29 02:44:46	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 10PM ET	Down	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0x739029…
10-29 02:43:38	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xf526c4…
10-29 02:18:31	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x1497f6…
10-29 02:14:41	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x85257a…
10-29 02:00:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf718f0…
10-29 02:00:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x2e58b0…
10-29 02:00:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x1197a0…
10-29 02:00:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xc266f6…
10-29 02:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0xd1b0bf…
10-28 20:45:29	Gold Up or Down - October 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xcf6157…
10-28 20:45:11	Silver Up or Down - October 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xf1fef8…
10-28 20:45:10	Silver Up or Down - October 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xd4c751…
10-28 20:05:14	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 4PM ET	Up	SELL	9	64¢	$6	0x468c85…
10-28 20:04:11	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x4e44cd…
10-28 20:00:16	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	9	25¢	$2	0x0b20e1…
10-28 18:45:22	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x705dee…
10-28 18:35:05	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 2PM ET	Up	SELL	6	25¢	$2	0xada82d…
10-28 18:34:01	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x172be1…
10-28 18:01:16	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 2PM ET	Up	SELL	10	53¢	$5	0x3ab2a8…
10-28 18:00:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xc31bb0…
10-28 18:00:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xffa331…
10-28 18:00:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x8f6af1…
10-28 18:00:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xc80087…
10-28 18:00:11	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x3e0632…
10-28 18:00:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x9d13c8…
10-28 16:32:58	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on October 28?	Yes	BUY	21	60¢	$12	0xe3b8dc…
10-28 13:32:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x4bcfbd…
10-28 13:30:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xea2585…
10-28 13:30:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x0016a0…
10-28 13:30:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0xd3a21a…
10-28 13:00:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x929dd7…
10-28 10:31:44	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x7d01e1…
10-28 10:27:46	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xe26fa9…
10-28 10:27:41	Solana Up or Down - October 28, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x6f9e69…