Shocked-Overshoot — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$33

Unrealized P&L

+$6

Hit rate

47.9%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

59 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$329

$329 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$15

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-04

last 05-06 09:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 45% $-33

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 44 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up		+16	$4	97¢	$15	+$11	05-06 08:50
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Up		+10	$5	1¢	$0	$-4	05-06 09:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	3	$39	20	30	-10	Up	+$9	05-05 02:25
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	3	$38	20	30	-10	Down	+$8	05-05 06:10
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	1	$29	0	30	-30	Up	$-1	05-05 00:55
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	3	$13	31	0	+31	Down	$-13	05-05 02:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	3	$13	31	0	+31	Up	+$18	05-05 02:15
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	2	$12	20	0	+20	Up	$-12	05-06 05:45
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	3	$12	30	0	+30	open	—	05-06 07:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	3	$12	31	0	+31	Down	$-12	05-05 11:15
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	2	$9	20	0	+20	Down	$-9	05-05 11:00
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	2	$8	21	0	+21	Down	$-8	05-05 11:05
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	1	$6	10	0	+10	Up	+$4	05-05 12:30
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	1	$6	10	0	+10	Down	$-6	05-05 08:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	1	$6	10	0	+10	open	—	05-06 07:05
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	1	$6	10	0	+10	Up	$-6	05-06 00:49
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	1	$6	11	0	+11	open	—	05-06 06:49
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	1	$6	10	0	+10	Down	$-6	05-05 08:30
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Up	$-5	05-05 01:45
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Down	+$5	05-05 22:30
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Up	+$5	05-05 11:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Down	+$5	05-05 22:30
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Up	$-5	05-06 00:00
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Up	$-5	05-05 05:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Up	+$6	05-05 12:15
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Up	$-5	05-05 01:45
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Down	+$6	05-05 09:15
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Down	$-5	05-05 02:15
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Down	$-5	05-05 05:35
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	05-06 09:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	1	$4	10	0	+10	Up	$-4	05-05 06:45
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	1	$4	16	0	+16	open	—	05-06 08:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-06 09:00:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	45¢	$5	0xf786d6…
05-06 08:50:16	XRP Up or Down - May 6, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	16	28¢	$4	0x53e9e9…
05-06 07:15:48	XRP Up or Down - May 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xe1a6cc…
05-06 07:15:42	XRP Up or Down - May 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xd0678d…
05-06 07:15:36	XRP Up or Down - May 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x83e372…
05-06 07:05:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x187601…
05-06 07:04:54	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x6963d1…
05-06 06:49:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0x5c081c…
05-06 05:45:24	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0xdcfdf1…
05-06 05:45:20	Solana Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x0530c1…
05-06 03:48:40	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xe4ffb3…
05-06 00:49:50	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x0a8050…
05-06 00:00:38	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xed1510…
05-06 00:00:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x5b59d8…
05-05 22:30:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x376e5b…
05-05 22:30:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x74ebab…
05-05 15:02:24	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x336c6b…
05-05 12:30:24	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x397668…
05-05 12:15:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x1f499a…
05-05 11:45:20	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x309555…
05-05 11:15:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x487755…
05-05 11:15:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xacb1f1…
05-05 11:15:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x17c647…
05-05 11:15:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	33¢	$4	0xb27467…
05-05 11:05:08	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0xcb57eb…
05-05 11:00:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x7eac28…
05-05 11:00:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x29cd2b…
05-05 11:00:14	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x80a7de…
05-05 10:25:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0x334f5a…
05-05 09:15:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	34¢	$4	0xd3a1c5…
05-05 09:15:16	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0xb7f4fe…
05-05 08:45:22	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x0a25f2…
05-05 08:30:20	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x5d02e8…
05-05 08:30:18	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x87e16c…
05-05 07:01:00	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x66bf6f…
05-05 06:45:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0xeb6b11…
05-05 06:45:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x55fa83…
05-05 06:10:06	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	SELL	30	92¢	$28	0xe39a25…
05-05 06:00:38	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x04b31c…
05-05 06:00:34	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x595321…
05-05 05:35:00	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	45¢	$5	0xc09a0b…
05-05 05:20:26	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x410a32…
05-05 02:25:26	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x5cc97b…
05-05 02:15:24	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xf7594a…
05-05 02:15:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xf55a7e…
05-05 02:15:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x111887…
05-05 02:15:22	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	45¢	$5	0x60037b…
05-05 02:15:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xb33cb0…
05-05 02:15:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xb005c9…
05-05 02:15:18	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xda6d08…
05-05 02:15:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0xd8f820…
05-05 02:15:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xe7be11…
05-05 01:59:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0xcd5251…
05-05 01:45:20	Solana Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x77feaf…
05-05 01:45:18	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x2376dc…
05-05 01:44:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	10	23¢	$2	0xf0b6c6…
05-05 00:55:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0xb311a4…
05-05 00:00:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x5c0cc1…
05-04 20:24:32	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x5b5a46…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0x20d2…e29d	26	$543	68	05-06 09:11
Minty-Complicity 0xee55…7b04	19	$702	80	05-06 09:10
Grounded-Skull 0x6063…2705	19	$560	99	05-06 09:11
Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4	18	$2.69K	88	05-06 09:00
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	17	$1.13K	154	05-06 07:14
Agile-Spacing 0xce25…7fdc	16	$1.82K	125	05-06 08:50
Impassioned-Botany 0x9826…983b	6	$1.17K	7	05-06 00:12
Orange-Forte 0xdeca…ddd5	6	$950	6	05-06 09:14