Ordinary-Hire-Mover — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$412

Unrealized P&L

-$21

Hit rate

45.9%

Resolved

298

Trades

1,194

lifetime

Volume

$76.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$64

Open exposure

$79

1 position

First seen

2026-06-01

last 10-29 19:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 72 days

Categories

Politics

41% 34% +$4,557

Crypto

37% 38% -$2,930

Other

20% 34% -$1,456

Sports

2% 53% +$244

Tech

0% 33% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 34 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+588	$100	14¢	$79	-$21	10-27 21:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	32	$14.4K	42,661	42,661	+0	Yes	+$7,246	06-14 22:02
Will Solana dip to $60 in June?	91	$10.1K	67,660	11,993	+55,667	No	-$2,917	06-29 13:00
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?	21	$9.5K	66,953	47,745	+19,208	No	-$1,261	06-17 08:51
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	8	$3.7K	35,614	35,614	+0	open	—	10-26 11:35
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	23	$2.6K	18,975	18,975	+0	No	-$1,347	06-22 21:11
solana above 70 on june 26 2026	10	$1.6K	10,115	10,115	+0	Yes	+$515	06-26 09:31
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	31	$1.5K	77,073	62,063	+15,010	No	+$534	06-03 23:53
bitcoin up or down on august 13 2026	11	$1.4K	51,916	1,916	+50,000	Down	+$325	08-13 16:08
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	58	$1.3K	203,572	201	+203,371	No	-$1,255	07-22 09:13
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 24?	6	$1.2K	742	742	+0	Down	+$255	08-24 20:14
bitcoin up or down on august 19 2026	5	$1.1K	900	900	+0	Up	+$658	08-19 15:12
will solana dip to 70 in june 2026	10	$1.1K	1,070	1,061	+9	Yes	+$55	06-03 23:22
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May?	6	$1.0K	648	748	-100	No	+$345	06-01 23:32
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30?	3	$897	686	686	+0	Yes	-$108	06-01 18:29
solana up or down on august 22 2026	10	$851	764	574	+191	Up	+$203	08-22 13:54
spy up or down on august 26 2026	6	$844	812	812	+0	Down	-$3	08-26 15:16
ethereum up or down on august 21 2026	2	$706	408	408	+0	Up	+$86	08-21 14:30
bitcoin up or down on august 22 2026	6	$660	1,534	0	+1,534	Down	-$660	08-21 18:45
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	3	$649	622	258	+364	Yes	+$108	10-26 22:21
bitcoin up or down on july 6 2026	7	$551	426	426	+0	Up	+$251	07-06 14:11
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	7	$541	2,527	1,897	+630	No	-$32	07-29 13:08
will bnb dip to 500 in june	7	$536	791	791	+0	No	-$126	06-07 06:24
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 23 29	14	$523	10,162	10,162	+0	No	-$497	06-29 12:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	8	$468	3,313	3,313	+0	No	-$88	08-28 15:54
bitcoin up or down on august 12 2026	4	$456	400	400	+0	Down	+$336	08-12 16:03
will donald trump publicly insult someone on june 7 2026	2	$451	364	364	+0	No	+$269	06-08 05:59
xrp up or down on august 25 2026	8	$448	914	0	+914	Down	-$448	08-25 09:53
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	7	$445	65,053	20,000	+45,053	No	-$205	07-29 13:10
xrp up or down on august 22 2026	15	$423	1,271	300	+971	Up	+$159	08-22 15:23
bitcoin up or down on august 17 2026	4	$420	581	340	+241	Up	+$180	08-17 14:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 19:34:28	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	345	44¢	$152	0x1593a2…
10-27 21:50:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	588	17¢	$100	0xc72559…
10-27 10:42:39	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	345	29¢	$100	0x674a4d…
10-26 22:53:29	Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	815	2¢	$13	0x174621…
10-26 22:21:44	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	364	69¢	$252	0x8594a4…
10-26 21:37:03	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	258	76¢	$197	0x1eb5a4…
10-26 21:34:50	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	258	77¢	$200	0xafc40f…
10-26 21:34:02	Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	881	4¢	$37	0xe4afce…
10-26 16:40:12	Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	815	6¢	$50	0xd39f21…
10-26 16:39:57	Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	881	6¢	$50	0x3ec6d9…
10-26 11:35:47	France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31,732	1¢	$381	0x22f067…
10-26 00:20:35	France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	326	1¢	$4	0xd27068…
10-26 00:20:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	4,032	0¢	$4	0x020c86…
10-25 23:58:38	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	4,032	1¢	$43	0x9e7914…
10-25 23:58:21	France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,882	1¢	$42	0x5a237f…
10-24 15:06:18	France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xfb92c0…
10-23 12:45:15	France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21,878	9¢	$1,969	0x411dd3…
10-23 12:44:21	France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,284	8¢	$263	0xbe52ed…
10-22 22:32:23	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe01375…
10-22 22:29:12	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x38ad8c…
10-22 04:29:14	France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	13¢	$12	0x61a4b3…
10-22 04:28:02	France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9,912	10¢	$1,000	0x29d1b6…
08-28 18:43:15	spy up or down on august 28 2026	Up	BUY	566	8¢	$45	0x521c9a…
08-28 17:55:49	spy up or down on august 28 2026	Up	BUY	42	16¢	$7	0x0dacd2…
08-28 17:55:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	SELL	3,376	0¢	$7	0xbbd041…
08-28 17:54:03	spy up or down on august 28 2026	Up	BUY	186	20¢	$37	0x6fdb6f…
08-28 15:54:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	825	4¢	$33	0x9c0c13…
08-28 15:48:15	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x8a8ff7…
08-28 15:47:58	solana up or down on august 28 2026	Up	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xbe05c8…
08-27 15:40:03	bitcoin up or down on august 28 2026	Up	BUY	194	50¢	$97	0x24f4a2…
08-27 14:13:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	370	6¢	$22	0x1d0265…
08-27 13:05:04	solana up or down on august 28 2026	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xa0577d…
08-27 07:16:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	1,195	7¢	$84	0x7d8c28…
08-27 05:00:22	solana up or down on august 27 2026	Down	BUY	315	6¢	$20	0x7e1583…
08-27 04:59:34	bitcoin up or down on august 27 2026	Up	SELL	30	75¢	$23	0x2e33dc…
08-27 04:50:51	bitcoin up or down on august 27 2026	Up	BUY	30	76¢	$23	0xb37b55…
08-27 04:50:09	bitcoin up or down on august 27 2026	Down	SELL	102	24¢	$24	0x2d5eb5…
08-26 18:27:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,480	10¢	$148	0xaef423…
08-26 16:16:09	bitcoin up or down on august 27 2026	Down	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xc7120f…
08-26 16:14:10	bitcoin up or down on august 27 2026	Down	BUY	9	50¢	$5	0x3242e7…
08-26 16:08:27	bitcoin up or down on august 27 2026	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xe1c0d3…
08-26 15:20:49	bitcoin up or down on august 27 2026	Down	BUY	46	50¢	$23	0x30a850…
08-26 15:19:16	bitcoin up or down on august 26 2026	Up	BUY	833	0¢	$2	0x2d17fa…
08-26 15:16:15	spy up or down on august 26 2026	Up	SELL	412	50¢	$206	0x817a90…
08-26 15:00:58	bitcoin up or down on august 26 2026	Up	BUY	2,470	0¢	$10	0x99e103…
08-26 15:00:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	90	11¢	$10	0x1db639…
08-26 14:56:51	spy up or down on august 26 2026	Up	BUY	412	50¢	$206	0x2dce80…
08-26 14:55:51	spy up or down on august 26 2026	Down	SELL	400	54¢	$214	0x1ac962…
08-26 08:07:34	spy up or down on august 26 2026	Down	BUY	33	55¢	$18	0x5bfe99…
08-26 08:07:12	spy up or down on august 26 2026	Down	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0xe66811…
08-26 08:06:49	spy up or down on august 26 2026	Down	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0xfae7d9…
08-26 08:06:13	bitcoin up or down on august 26 2026	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xf97703…
08-25 20:34:45	bitcoin up or down on august 26 2026	Up	BUY	83	32¢	$26	0x7061c5…
08-25 17:20:58	aapl up or down on august 25 2026	Down	BUY	28	65¢	$18	0x600839…
08-25 17:13:51	bitcoin up or down on august 26 2026	Up	BUY	395	38¢	$150	0x7eb0a8…
08-25 16:56:15	coin up or down on august 25 2026	Down	BUY	53	3¢	$1	0x2d8bb8…
08-25 16:48:42	bitcoin up or down on august 26 2026	Up	BUY	390	46¢	$179	0xde61ea…
08-25 14:07:30	solana up or down on august 25 2026	Down	BUY	83	40¢	$33	0x890ff7…
08-25 14:02:10	coin up or down on august 25 2026	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x0898ea…
08-25 14:00:54	coin up or down on august 25 2026	Down	BUY	77	55¢	$42	0x419801…
08-25 14:00:39	coin up or down on august 25 2026	Down	BUY	22	55¢	$12	0x7a78d0…
08-25 14:00:19	solana up or down on august 25 2026	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x085046…
08-25 13:59:39	solana up or down on august 25 2026	Down	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0xfe9b78…
08-25 13:57:01	solana up or down on august 25 2026	Down	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0xa47f2e…
08-25 13:56:46	solana up or down on august 25 2026	Down	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0xa6c28f…
08-25 12:38:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	8¢	$80	0x6031e5…
08-25 11:07:03	spy up or down on august 25 2026	Down	SELL	60	16¢	$10	0xcbfe55…
08-25 10:23:58	spy up or down on august 25 2026	Down	BUY	60	15¢	$9	0xb409fd…
08-25 10:18:51	solana up or down on august 25 2026	Down	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xdee4e9…
08-25 09:53:57	xrp up or down on august 25 2026	Up	BUY	300	31¢	$93	0xcdd894…
08-25 07:51:33	xrp up or down on august 25 2026	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x1eb2b4…
08-25 07:38:06	xrp up or down on august 25 2026	Up	BUY	200	56¢	$112	0x750dc0…
08-25 07:18:12	xrp up or down on august 25 2026	Up	BUY	0	56¢	$0	0xd474c7…
08-25 07:17:36	spy up or down on august 25 2026	Down	SELL	220	24¢	$53	0x1b57f0…
08-25 07:17:36	spy up or down on august 25 2026	Down	SELL	30	24¢	$7	0x1a5ca7…
08-25 07:05:34	xrp up or down on august 25 2026	Up	BUY	360	63¢	$227	0x5ca16a…
08-25 07:05:09	bitcoin up or down on august 25 2026	Up	SELL	261	87¢	$227	0x19191c…
08-25 00:46:39	spy up or down on august 25 2026	Down	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0xc54be1…
08-25 00:46:39	spy up or down on august 25 2026	Down	BUY	200	40¢	$80	0x16145a…
08-24 23:13:16	xrp up or down on august 25 2026	Up	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xa3f400…
08-24 23:03:13	xrp up or down on august 25 2026	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x0b1aa7…
08-24 23:02:43	xrp up or down on august 25 2026	Up	BUY	26	30¢	$8	0x4af1e6…
08-24 20:16:24	bitcoin up or down on august 25 2026	Up	BUY	261	40¢	$104	0xa2a372…
08-24 20:14:54	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 24?	Down	SELL	742	100¢	$741	0x1cd643…
08-24 16:18:52	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 24?	Down	BUY	362	63¢	$228	0x8180bc…
08-24 14:03:12	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 24?	Down	BUY	26	85¢	$22	0xd836c6…
08-24 14:02:45	NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on August 24?	Down	SELL	23	95¢	$22	0xd0aa6a…
08-24 13:56:42	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 24?	Down	BUY	51	80¢	$41	0x5d5635…
08-24 13:56:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	833	5¢	$42	0x97b055…
08-24 10:24:16	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 24?	Down	BUY	149	64¢	$95	0xa284b1…
08-24 10:23:51	Ethereum Up or Down on August 24?	Down	SELL	300	22¢	$67	0x613286…
08-24 10:23:40	Bitcoin Up or Down on August 24?	Down	SELL	141	25¢	$35	0xa468d1…
08-24 07:21:33	Bitcoin Up or Down on August 24?	Down	BUY	16	36¢	$6	0xce65c4…
08-24 07:21:00	NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on August 24?	Down	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xba809b…
08-24 07:18:37	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 24?	Down	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0xd3f577…
08-24 07:11:48	Ethereum Up or Down on August 24?	Down	BUY	300	30¢	$90	0x5fa8d2…
08-24 07:06:06	Bitcoin Up or Down on August 24?	Down	BUY	125	40¢	$50	0x38a0fb…
08-24 07:02:55	Solana Up or Down on August 24?	Up	SELL	14	36¢	$5	0xcd63f5…
08-24 07:02:45	Bitcoin Up or Down on August 24?	Up	SELL	111	60¢	$67	0xa703be…
08-24 05:31:31	Solana Up or Down on August 24?	Up	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0xcd32e7…