Even-Developing — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$15

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$3.54K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$57

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-19 12:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Other

83% 94% -$16

Crypto

11% 75% $0

Politics

6% 100% +$1

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 300 319	1	$188	188	+188	No	+$0	01-06 09:50
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 300 319	1	$186	186	+186	No	+$0	02-02 09:18
will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	1	$175	176	+176	No	+$0	01-30 07:42
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 0 19	1	$175	175	+175	No	+$0	01-25 11:23
elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 100 119	1	$175	175	+175	No	+$0	01-21 07:02
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 100 119	1	$174	174	+174	No	+$0	01-16 03:24
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 120 139	1	$173	173	+173	No	+$0	04-21 01:40
will the price of bitcoin be between 78000 80000 on april 15	1	$173	173	+173	No	+$0	04-15 11:03
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 6?	1	$172	172	+172	No	+$0	05-05 13:22
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 140 159	1	$172	172	+172	No	+$0	04-09 07:43
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in May?	1	$172	172	+172	No	+$0	06-09 10:34
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 200 219	1	$169	169	+169	No	+$0	03-24 07:40
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 120 139	1	$169	169	+169	No	+$0	03-19 07:00
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 60 79	1	$168	168	+168	No	+$0	03-06 09:02
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 60 79	1	$166	166	+166	No	+$0	02-14 03:21
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 400 419	1	$166	166	+166	No	+$0	02-10 01:55
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	1	$165	165	+165	Yes	+$0	03-11 10:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	1	$156	156	+156	No	+$0	05-30 08:15
Will Elon Musk post 760-779 tweets in May 2026?	1	$155	155	+155	No	+$0	05-27 03:48
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	1	$128	129	+129	No	+$1	04-26 03:57
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on April 26?	1	$43	43	+43	No	+$0	04-26 03:51
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 260 279	1	$20	100	+100	No	-$20	02-06 03:29
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	1	$14	14	+14	No	+$0	07-23 05:49
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	1	$14	14	+14	No	+$0	08-28 08:42
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	1	$13	13	+13	No	+$0	09-10 08:20
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	1	$13	13	+13	No	+$0	10-19 12:43
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	1	$2	2	+2	Yes	+$0	03-06 09:02
Florence: Franco Agamenone vs Max Houkes	1	$2	3	+3	Max Houkes	+$1	10-19 12:36
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$2	2	+2	Yes	+$0	03-11 10:45
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	1	$1	2	+2	No	+$1	09-10 08:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 12:43:21	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xbb3a40…
10-19 12:36:36	Florence: Franco Agamenone vs Max Houkes	Max Houkes	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xdc84aa…
09-10 08:20:58	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x7d9e88…
09-10 08:15:19	Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?	No	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0x2a5576…
08-28 08:42:46	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xf34e23…
07-23 05:49:24	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x806741…
06-09 10:34:54	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in May?	No	BUY	172	100¢	$172	0xe49ea8…
06-09 10:31:33	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 10?	Yes	BUY	262	0¢	$1	0x3ffc4c…
05-30 08:15:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	156	100¢	$156	0xe00ba5…
05-27 03:52:00	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alex Jones by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x93f3f0…
05-27 03:51:53	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa4ce94…
05-27 03:51:34	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x11d28f…
05-27 03:51:29	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa535dc…
05-27 03:51:24	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xbed1f8…
05-27 03:50:57	Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x03ed85…
05-27 03:50:52	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x806995…
05-27 03:50:47	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Viktor Orbán by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x61bd1b…
05-27 03:50:42	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xda1fec…
05-27 03:50:17	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x02810b…
05-27 03:50:12	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x47b8ee…
05-27 03:49:51	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xec25af…
05-27 03:49:28	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xbd6d62…
05-27 03:49:23	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x399a13…
05-27 03:49:18	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xe6268f…
05-27 03:49:12	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x3471f3…
05-27 03:49:07	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xe17e82…
05-27 03:48:58	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd8d8bf…
05-27 03:48:51	Will Elon Musk post 760-779 tweets in May 2026?	No	BUY	155	100¢	$155	0xc7d122…
05-05 13:22:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 6?	No	BUY	172	100¢	$172	0x24873d…
04-26 03:57:20	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	129	99¢	$128	0x0e92fd…
04-26 03:51:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 26?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xdeea41…
04-26 03:51:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on April 26?	No	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0x558d16…
04-21 01:40:26	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 120 139	No	BUY	173	100¢	$173	0x1b180a…
04-15 11:03:52	will the price of bitcoin be between 78000 80000 on april 15	No	BUY	173	100¢	$173	0x372abe…
04-09 07:43:17	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 140 159	No	BUY	172	100¢	$172	0x092b4c…
03-24 07:40:31	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 200 219	No	BUY	169	100¢	$169	0x24b3be…
03-19 07:00:41	elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 120 139	No	BUY	169	100¢	$169	0x2f69de…
03-11 10:45:51	no change in bank of japans interest rates after march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xb1f4a6…
03-11 10:45:43	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xdff7bc…
03-11 10:45:25	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	BUY	165	100¢	$165	0x1363ad…
03-06 09:02:31	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x7da4cb…
03-06 09:02:25	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 60 79	No	BUY	168	100¢	$168	0x2dd434…
02-14 03:21:29	elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 60 79	No	BUY	166	100¢	$166	0x8568f6…
02-10 01:55:13	elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 400 419	No	BUY	166	100¢	$166	0x8f512f…
02-06 03:29:31	elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 260 279	Yes	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x8d2389…
02-02 09:18:02	elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 300 319	No	BUY	186	100¢	$186	0x123c0f…
01-30 07:42:56	will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	No	BUY	176	100¢	$175	0x4b97a3…
01-25 11:23:04	elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 0 19	No	BUY	175	100¢	$175	0x60ba89…
01-21 07:02:56	elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 100 119	No	BUY	175	100¢	$175	0x749497…
01-16 03:24:46	elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 100 119	No	BUY	174	100¢	$174	0x2f1617…
01-16 03:24:16	will mistral have the top ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6c8448…
01-16 03:24:10	will deepseek have the top ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xbaff0e…
01-16 03:23:54	will moonshot have the top ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7eb429…
01-16 03:23:44	will zai have the top ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdf8707…
01-16 03:23:34	will alibaba have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xde80f1…
01-16 03:23:28	will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd62003…
01-16 03:22:26	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x884c43…
01-16 03:22:18	will googl dip to 215 in january	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdc3c2b…
01-16 03:21:58	will googl reach 420 in january	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdbc1ed…
01-16 03:21:50	si hit 25 low jan 2026 271 644 727	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x40f09a…
01-16 03:21:36	will israel strike lebanon on january 14 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9c8433…
01-06 09:50:33	elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 300 319	No	BUY	188	100¢	$188	0x21bf03…