Grizzled-Fedelini — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

64.8%

Resolved

Trades

157

lifetime

Volume

$1.63K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-07

last 06-21 20:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

58% 57% $-3

Politics

38% — —

Crypto

3% 0% $-2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	6	$356	488	488	+0	open	—	04-07 23:23
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?	2	$93	50	50	+0	open	—	04-10 21:36
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 26?	3	$86	70	70	+0	open	—	05-26 08:00
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 30?	3	$86	90	90	+0	open	—	04-30 08:02
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 29?	5	$83	77	77	+0	open	—	04-29 20:00
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	2	$67	100	100	+0	open	—	04-21 14:38
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 12?	3	$47	46	36	+10	Up	$-5	05-12 12:22
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on April 30?	2	$46	50	50	+0	open	—	04-30 08:03
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	4	$42	40	40	+0	open	—	05-12 18:35
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 30?	2	$41	30	30	+0	open	—	04-30 16:31
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 12?	4	$39	36	36	+0	Down	+$5	05-12 13:25
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on April 29?	2	$38	36	36	+0	open	—	04-29 18:21
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 21 2026	2	$35	100	100	+0	open	—	04-21 14:41
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May?	2	$31	60	60	+0	Yes	+$1	05-08 07:50
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on April 30?	2	$30	30	30	+0	open	—	04-30 10:50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?	2	$26	60	30	+30	open	—	04-13 14:17
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 4?	2	$25	20	20	+0	open	—	05-04 14:08
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 4?	4	$22	14	14	+0	Up	+$2	05-04 17:26
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	2	$21	60	0	+60	open	—	04-30 09:52
Meta (META) Up or Down on April 29?	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	04-29 20:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$20	25	25	+0	open	—	05-23 17:44
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	3	$20	15	15	+0	open	—	04-21 14:41
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 12?	2	$20	20	20	+0	Down	+$0	05-12 11:07
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on April 29?	5	$18	24	24	+0	open	—	04-29 19:45
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	2	$18	15	15	+0	open	—	05-08 07:51
googl up or down on june 10 2026	2	$17	15	15	+0	open	—	06-10 16:04
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	2	$16	20	20	+0	open	—	05-01 01:10
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 30?	2	$16	10	10	+0	open	—	04-30 14:54
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$13	10	10	+0	open	—	04-07 23:23
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 29?	2	$12	30	30	+0	open	—	04-29 19:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-21 20:24:43	fifwc bel irn 2026 06 21 corners total 8pt5	Over	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xb14ef1…
06-11 19:20:07	amzn up or down on june 11 2026	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x751a00…
06-11 13:05:06	spx opens up or down on june 11 2026	Down	SELL	141	1¢	$1	0x705011…
06-11 10:08:15	spx opens up or down on june 11 2026	Down	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x5d024d…
06-11 10:06:25	spx opens up or down on june 11 2026	Down	BUY	39	2¢	$1	0x8dd732…
06-11 10:06:06	spx opens up or down on june 11 2026	Down	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xade3a6…
06-11 10:06:03	spx opens up or down on june 11 2026	Down	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xf60f9d…
06-11 07:09:19	googl up or down on june 11 2026	Down	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0x5e7a21…
06-10 22:05:12	googl up or down on june 11 2026	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xbcc908…
06-10 16:04:57	googl up or down on june 10 2026	Down	SELL	15	82¢	$12	0x9afe97…
06-10 14:06:07	googl up or down on june 10 2026	Down	BUY	15	36¢	$5	0xc142f6…
06-10 14:05:12	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	30	18¢	$5	0xae341d…
05-26 15:50:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	SELL	10	55¢	$5	0x4cae2f…
05-26 15:49:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xb08664…
05-26 15:44:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xfa08c6…
05-26 13:35:03	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 26?	Down	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0x0e0b8d…
05-26 08:28:11	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 26?	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x0ffcec…
05-26 08:00:57	Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	SELL	70	72¢	$50	0x6d29f4…
05-26 07:52:31	Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	40	51¢	$20	0x135c73…
05-26 07:30:16	Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	30	51¢	$15	0xe2d6c8…
05-23 17:44:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	52¢	$13	0xc5e56f…
05-14 17:49:39	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14?	Down	SELL	18	1¢	$0	0xf0ee97…
05-14 13:21:17	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14?	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xcbe600…
05-12 18:35:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0xe64061…
05-12 13:35:41	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12?	Up	SELL	18	17¢	$3	0xcb638e…
05-12 13:25:24	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 12?	Up	SELL	15	56¢	$8	0xcb0d93…
05-12 12:22:06	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xcc77df…
05-12 12:22:01	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 12?	Down	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0xea299f…
05-12 12:21:52	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xcd5c32…
05-12 11:07:47	Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 12?	Down	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0x2e8bef…
05-12 10:55:39	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 12?	Down	SELL	36	57¢	$21	0x3df302…
05-12 10:13:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	SELL	3	8¢	$0	0xb0c7af…
05-12 10:12:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x8faeac…
05-12 10:08:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	SELL	7	3¢	$0	0x32cae5…
05-12 10:07:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x443797…
05-12 10:01:36	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 12?	Down	SELL	21	65¢	$14	0x9bece6…
05-12 07:11:02	Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 12?	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xa7f087…
05-12 07:09:58	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 12?	Down	BUY	21	56¢	$12	0x933b59…
05-12 07:09:24	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 12?	Down	BUY	36	55¢	$20	0xc813da…
05-08 07:51:26	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	No	SELL	15	60¢	$9	0x3b470a…
05-08 07:50:11	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May?	No	SELL	60	26¢	$16	0x76a843…
05-06 19:42:01	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May?	No	BUY	60	25¢	$15	0xb9f433…
05-06 19:41:46	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	No	BUY	15	57¢	$9	0x8b8b20…
05-06 11:40:06	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x696574…
05-04 17:26:00	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	SELL	4	85¢	$3	0xea3d2b…
05-04 17:22:54	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x862796…
05-04 17:20:48	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	SELL	6	85¢	$5	0x8c192e…
05-04 14:08:36	Meta (META) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x11dd5c…
05-04 13:31:32	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	BUY	17	39¢	$7	0x5fb542…
05-04 13:17:50	Meta (META) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xa54c29…
05-04 13:17:32	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0xbaa245…
05-04 13:16:50	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xdc53fb…
05-02 12:51:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	25	66¢	$16	0x4da57d…
05-01 01:10:44	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0x648433…
04-30 16:31:54	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	SELL	30	90¢	$27	0x92c4ab…
04-30 14:54:22	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x276421…
04-30 10:50:26	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	30	39¢	$12	0x5db768…
04-30 10:39:14	Will Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	23	11¢	$3	0xe4bfec…
04-30 10:32:36	Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0x0298bb…
04-30 10:26:04	Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	55	19¢	$10	0xc78101…
04-30 09:52:32	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x9e2b74…
04-30 09:48:08	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0x4c192e…
04-30 09:43:00	Dogecoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xdd2614…
04-30 09:42:16	Dogecoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x1aa0a0…
04-30 09:31:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	SELL	5	90¢	$5	0x2d2f98…
04-30 09:31:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x1c577d…
04-30 09:21:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	SELL	6	24¢	$1	0x7bf810…
04-30 09:20:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xdb6264…
04-30 09:16:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	SELL	2	76¢	$2	0x66a1a0…
04-30 09:15:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x03c047…
04-30 09:14:02	Dogecoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xa0fc63…
04-30 09:12:18	Dogecoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x3c8adc…
04-30 09:11:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x4166e3…
04-30 08:23:34	Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	30	61¢	$18	0x27881f…
04-30 08:10:08	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x345d87…
04-30 08:05:56	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	BUY	30	48¢	$14	0x2b6ebe…
04-30 08:03:10	Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	SELL	50	46¢	$23	0x5b67a3…
04-30 08:02:50	NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	SELL	90	50¢	$45	0xa0b91d…
04-30 07:47:04	NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	BUY	40	45¢	$18	0xe1ded1…
04-30 07:39:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xeea450…
04-30 07:30:52	NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0x05d05f…
04-30 07:26:50	Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on April 30?	Up	BUY	50	47¢	$24	0x7df5fc…
04-29 20:00:28	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x288124…
04-29 20:00:18	Meta (META) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xb899a3…
04-29 19:56:56	Meta (META) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x0fef2e…
04-29 19:48:40	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	BUY	15	84¢	$13	0xc6135a…
04-29 19:46:28	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x8a44dd…
04-29 19:45:16	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	SELL	4	15¢	$1	0x0e0546…
04-29 19:43:50	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xa138da…
04-29 19:41:30	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 29?	Up	SELL	8	11¢	$1	0x491c37…
04-29 19:36:20	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 29?	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x134cee…
04-29 19:28:46	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 29?	Up	SELL	30	14¢	$4	0x99f0d0…
04-29 19:20:08	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 29?	Up	SELL	50	3¢	$1	0x1ccd79…
04-29 18:21:18	Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	SELL	36	68¢	$24	0x38790f…
04-29 17:45:28	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 29?	Up	BUY	30	26¢	$8	0x676e9a…
04-29 17:44:10	Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	BUY	36	38¢	$14	0xba1347…
04-29 17:18:14	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 29?	Up	BUY	49	9¢	$4	0x3379c4…
04-29 17:15:14	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 29?	Up	SELL	50	35¢	$18	0xcf1aa2…
04-29 17:14:24	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0x8e64e1…
04-29 16:11:00	Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 29?	Up	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0xc6c01f…