Sneaky-Reality-Cirrus — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$163

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

70.3%

Resolved (7d)

839

Trades (7d)

1,960

36,611 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$5.91K

$154.9K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-12

last 11-12 19:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 273 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 61% -$3,271

Other

0% 35% -$14

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 475 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up		+39	$9	1¢	$0	-$9	11-13 04:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	7	$420	310	118	+192	Down	$0	04-26 06:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 14:20 UTC	11	$362	202	200	+2	Up	+$15	04-10 14:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	15	$329	222	128	+94	Up	+$11	06-14 18:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	2	$318	289	275	+14	Down	+$131	04-25 06:19
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-24 17:45 UTC	4	$311	232	223	+9	Up	+$99	04-24 17:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	2	$308	306	297	+10	Up	-$22	04-25 16:53
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-24 08:00 UTC	5	$280	442	418	+24	Up	+$84	04-24 08:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-24 19:30 UTC	5	$248	171	168	+3	Up	-$5	04-24 19:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-21 15:00 UTC	5	$238	171	165	+5	Up	+$54	04-21 15:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 19:30 UTC	2	$229	154	150	+4	Up	+$33	04-24 19:34
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-17 04:30 UTC	8	$225	127	127	+0	Down	+$4	03-17 04:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	2	$224	116	116	+0	Up	+$2	04-27 19:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-17 04:15 UTC	11	$213	140	138	+1	Down	+$9	03-17 04:17
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-16 17:15 UTC	5	$205	155	153	+2	Down	+$28	03-16 17:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 18:30 UTC	2	$203	105	105	+0	Up	+$3	04-24 18:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	6	$201	174	169	+5	Up	+$8	04-28 10:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-18 15:30 UTC	12	$197	222	222	+0	Down	+$55	08-18 15:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-17 04:00 UTC	6	$193	115	114	+1	Up	+$13	03-17 04:09
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-24 09:45 UTC	6	$187	305	258	+47	Down	-$3	04-24 09:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	10	$185	112	110	+2	Up	+$27	04-28 10:40
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-27 18:45 UTC	8	$184	197	172	+25	Up	-$16	07-27 17:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 19:45 UTC	5	$183	111	109	+2	Down	+$16	04-24 19:49
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-13 11:30 UTC	2	$180	92	92	+0	Down	+$1	06-13 11:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-21 08:50 UTC	2	$175	140	136	+4	Down	+$20	04-21 08:51
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 19:15 UTC	4	$169	98	97	+1	Up	+$5	04-24 19:19
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-24 10:00 UTC	5	$162	312	293	+19	Down	+$62	04-24 10:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 08:10 UTC	2	$162	82	82	+0	Up	+$2	08-18 08:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-24 08:30 UTC	7	$161	87	86	+1	Down	+$2	04-24 08:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-12 20:45 UTC	2	$160	81	81	+0	Down	+$1	06-12 20:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-17 02:30 UTC	2	$155	111	109	+2	Up	+$28	03-17 02:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-13 04:11:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x3a8c9c…
11-13 04:08:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x03dc27…
11-13 04:08:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xaade5f…
11-13 04:06:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xcbc9f2…
11-13 04:04:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x17a813…
11-13 04:04:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x9dbe97…
11-13 04:03:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	SELL	12	50¢	$6	0xcb278e…
11-13 04:03:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	SELL	15	20¢	$3	0x0ec149…
11-13 04:02:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xd08381…
11-13 04:01:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x661917…
11-13 04:00:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x500643…
11-13 03:58:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x0b0ce6…
11-13 03:57:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	7	79¢	$6	0x4400c4…
11-13 03:55:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x483725…
11-13 03:54:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x62d4e4…
11-13 03:53:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x89243e…
11-13 03:52:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xbcee94…
11-13 03:51:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	29	14¢	$4	0x658b64…
11-13 03:51:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	0	37¢	$0	0x091137…
11-13 03:49:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0x1a2351…
11-13 03:49:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xed0532…
11-13 03:48:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	SELL	1	54¢	$1	0xf09e5f…
11-13 03:48:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	SELL	3	54¢	$2	0x1e0fe5…
11-13 03:48:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	SELL	0	54¢	$0	0xf79530…
11-13 03:48:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	SELL	3	54¢	$2	0xe98a3e…
11-13 03:48:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	SELL	10	54¢	$5	0xc47922…
11-13 03:48:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	SELL	1	54¢	$1	0x9f63f2…
11-13 03:47:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x721a2c…
11-13 03:44:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x68549c…
11-13 03:44:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0xe19358…
11-13 03:43:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x9bc3c4…
11-13 03:41:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	SELL	17	36¢	$6	0x1740cb…
11-13 03:40:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0x3dcdee…
11-13 03:40:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xea10f2…
11-13 03:40:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x88fc58…
11-13 03:39:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x0b95bb…
11-13 03:37:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x247890…
11-13 03:36:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x610ed0…
11-13 03:34:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x32b018…
11-13 03:33:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	36¢	$2	0xec5bcd…
11-13 03:32:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0xa1ea5d…
11-12 19:40:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xdca2bb…
11-12 18:36:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xccc117…
11-12 18:33:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0xd9a513…
11-12 18:31:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xc1a613…
11-12 18:28:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	SELL	3	80¢	$2	0xaec562…
11-12 18:25:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xe29f3e…
11-12 18:24:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x90f4ca…
11-12 18:21:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x302bb2…
11-12 18:13:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x85f26f…
11-12 18:12:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x7b3960…
11-12 18:12:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	SELL	3	63¢	$2	0x26eabd…
11-12 18:11:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x446b8c…
11-12 18:11:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	SELL	23	34¢	$8	0x193cd8…
11-12 18:09:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x70bc5b…
11-12 18:02:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	SELL	15	66¢	$10	0x7a41ff…
11-12 18:02:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	SELL	12	58¢	$7	0xe5c63c…
11-12 18:02:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x06c76f…
11-12 18:01:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xc2ca86…
11-12 18:00:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x9d8188…
11-12 17:58:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x055d29…
11-12 17:55:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	14	48¢	$7	0xf36bff…
11-12 17:54:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	19	43¢	$8	0x4898a1…
11-12 17:52:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x61f7b4…
11-12 17:51:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x9a47c1…
11-12 17:49:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x2635c9…
11-12 17:48:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	SELL	7	69¢	$5	0xf10e4d…
11-12 17:47:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	SELL	12	50¢	$6	0xdceb36…
11-12 17:47:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x482c7c…
11-12 17:47:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x05d880…
11-12 17:46:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xc00c06…
11-12 17:44:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xe866d9…
11-12 17:44:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x7d2e36…
11-12 17:40:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x5d02e8…
11-12 17:38:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xdf97c1…
11-12 17:36:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x09ad51…
11-12 17:36:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	SELL	29	42¢	$12	0x560c68…
11-12 17:35:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x52a02a…
11-12 17:34:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	17	24¢	$4	0x1c83d5…
11-12 17:33:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x682e85…
11-12 17:31:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x429e2e…
11-12 17:28:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x368b7a…
11-12 17:26:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x02c654…
11-12 17:25:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	22¢	$2	0x593e4d…
11-12 17:25:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xae62a9…
11-12 17:24:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xde2915…
11-12 17:21:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xe0ecd9…
11-12 17:19:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xf9ff71…
11-12 17:18:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	2	81¢	$2	0xf6ae3c…
11-12 17:16:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	SELL	3	62¢	$2	0xb65806…
11-12 17:15:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	7	38¢	$2	0x7a4b34…
11-12 17:13:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	SELL	0	93¢	$0	0x5f9442…
11-12 17:12:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x6d4e88…
11-12 17:10:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	SELL	6	71¢	$4	0xc2ade2…
11-12 17:08:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	SELL	1	66¢	$0	0xbd3bc3…
11-12 17:07:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0x0934b6…
11-12 17:07:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x9ef279…
11-12 17:06:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	SELL	12	24¢	$3	0x7d6adb…
11-12 17:05:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xc65c26…
11-12 17:03:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x0f0ee6…