Cheerful-Warming — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

87.0%

Resolved

289

Trades

317

lifetime

Volume

$5.48K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-13

last 11-04 07:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 76 days

Categories

Politics

58% 94% +$45

Other

30% 74% -$106

Crypto

11% 54% +$56

Tech

1% 100% +$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	4	$245	141	141	+0	Yes	+$5	06-17 03:13
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	2	$220	221	0	+221	Yes	+$1	07-30 01:04
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	1	$200	212	0	+212	No	+$12	07-01 01:18
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	2	$200	201	0	+201	Yes	+$1	08-04 02:22
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	2	$120	123	0	+123	No	+$3	05-28 01:24
atp matsuda meng 2026 08 30	2	$110	122	0	+122	Koki Matsuda	+$12	08-31 04:48
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	2	$101	51	51	+0	No	+$1	06-17 01:05
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	2	$100	51	51	+0	No	+$0	06-17 01:05
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	1	$100	101	0	+101	No	+$1	05-27 01:41
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?	1	$100	101	0	+101	Yes	+$1	09-16 01:52
israel closes its airspace by june 8	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	06-09 01:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$100	101	0	+101	No	+$1	07-01 01:19
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	1	$100	101	0	+101	Yes	+$1	06-23 01:48
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	1	$100	132	0	+132	No	-$100	06-17 02:24
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	2	$100	120	0	+120	Yes	+$20	06-17 01:42
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	1	$100	102	0	+102	Yes	+$2	07-31 02:18
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	1	$100	102	0	+102	No	+$2	06-12 03:35
will iran target a arab country on august 2 2026 20260801004719119	1	$100	105	0	+105	No	+$5	08-03 02:25
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 29, 2026?	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	09-01 05:25
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 26, 2026?	1	$100	101	0	+101	No	+$1	08-27 02:43
will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 22 2026 20260607225940216 619	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	06-23 01:55
alien abduction at brazil vs scotland game in miami 20260624221224553	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	06-25 02:56
will iran target a arab country on august 13 2026 20260801004719130	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	08-14 06:23
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	1	$100	100	0	+100	Yes	+$0	08-10 07:44
iran successfully targets shipping on august 11 2026 20260729163314531	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	08-14 06:12
israel closes its airspace by june 11	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	06-12 02:16
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 24, 2026?	1	$100	101	0	+101	No	+$1	08-25 07:31
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 25, 2026?	1	$100	101	0	+101	No	+$1	08-26 01:33
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	1	$100	101	0	+101	Yes	+$1	06-30 01:55
israel closes its airspace by june 9	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	06-10 02:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 07:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xa924f4…
11-04 06:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xfb7bcf…
11-04 06:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xc288ac…
11-04 05:20:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x234233…
11-04 04:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x3db50a…
11-03 20:40:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x10cd29…
11-03 20:20:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xb1debe…
11-03 20:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xfb6092…
11-03 15:10:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xe1c400…
11-03 11:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x36f588…
11-03 05:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xd8cae7…
11-03 04:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x376546…
11-03 03:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x4daf42…
11-02 20:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	44¢	$3	0x8d7bdf…
11-02 19:55:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x3013d2…
11-02 18:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xc7081a…
11-02 17:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xe3d91d…
11-02 17:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x3a7633…
11-02 16:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x975190…
11-02 15:55:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x033293…
11-02 01:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x2fb73b…
10-30 14:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xfb8e84…
10-30 14:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0xbd6617…
10-30 13:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xdedc9a…
10-30 12:55:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x839e6d…
10-30 11:40:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xeb01e2…
10-30 11:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x7944b0…
10-30 10:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x44aef6…
10-30 09:10:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xcf9269…
10-30 08:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x2a3d4e…
10-30 07:55:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x7e1b7f…
10-30 07:20:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x7adb6d…
10-30 06:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	41¢	$3	0xec86ea…
10-29 17:45:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0xc5243d…
10-29 17:10:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x9f2c8e…
10-29 14:40:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0xad91da…
10-29 10:35:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	42¢	$3	0x4d87ba…
10-29 03:10:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x23e12e…
10-28 21:30:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x0d7950…
10-28 19:35:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x33946e…
10-28 18:50:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x131709…
10-28 13:40:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x8c46ba…
10-28 08:30:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x3de558…
10-28 04:10:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xc49ae0…
10-27 21:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x1b2fcd…
10-27 17:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x66fbd5…
10-27 11:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x71fc3c…
10-22 20:50:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	6	41¢	$3	0xed8678…
10-22 16:55:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x5fa575…
10-22 16:45:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x908782…
10-22 15:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x617dd9…
10-22 15:20:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x25939a…
10-22 15:15:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0xf9eeb5…
10-22 09:25:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-22 09:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xc714b9…
10-22 03:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x3e5555…
10-22 02:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x563c72…
10-21 15:10:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x2e5294…
10-21 08:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x661621…
10-21 06:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x2df966…
10-21 03:40:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x42b206…
10-20 19:25:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xdb1ffb…
10-20 17:10:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xb1ecaf…
10-20 16:50:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x43bddb…
10-20 16:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xc2dd53…
10-20 16:20:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x8be14f…
10-20 14:25:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0xfae918…
10-20 13:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x199627…
10-20 12:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x86de40…
10-20 03:35:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xc004d0…
10-20 03:10:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x504927…
10-20 01:00:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0xc77501…
10-20 00:40:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x95c324…
10-19 17:50:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x8a3066…
10-19 17:10:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x9701c3…
10-19 16:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x8e4b59…
10-19 13:55:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x3f08cf…
10-19 10:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x8ce152…
10-19 07:50:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x66fc98…
10-19 05:10:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xbaf301…
10-16 03:40:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x990b2a…
10-15 19:20:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x24a427…
10-15 16:50:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xf2ca8d…
10-15 14:05:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x3f9447…
10-15 06:20:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 06:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xc363c8…
10-15 06:10:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 06:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x920e5f…
10-15 05:45:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-15 05:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x85dbdb…
10-14 22:40:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 22:40 UTC	Up	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xcec97a…
10-14 16:30:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 16:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x9255b7…
10-13 11:30:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 11:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xfef3b1…
10-13 08:00:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x721f9e…
10-13 07:45:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0xe7170a…
10-13 07:05:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xdae84d…
10-13 03:50:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x5ce5e8…
10-13 03:40:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x34901c…
10-12 23:40:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x3832ec…
10-12 20:10:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x04f080…
10-12 19:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x540aa9…
10-12 14:15:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x456c8f…
10-12 06:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x492af3…
10-12 05:55:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0xe5104a…