Expert-Stupidity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

70.7%

Resolved

Trades

2,596

lifetime

Volume

$3.50K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 06-28 14:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 53% +$0

Other

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 56 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
eth updown 15m 1772523900	23	$25	47	31	+16	open	—	03-03 07:58
eth updown 15m 1772180100	18	$22	28	21	+8	open	—	02-27 08:27
eth updown 15m 1772702100	17	$19	21	20	+1	open	—	03-05 09:29
eth updown 15m 1772894700	10	$19	21	13	+9	open	—	03-07 14:58
eth updown 15m 1774008900	9	$19	20	17	+3	open	—	03-20 12:25
eth updown 15m 1772181000	16	$18	60	57	+2	open	—	02-27 08:40
eth updown 15m 1772787600	13	$17	22	20	+2	open	—	03-06 09:10
eth updown 15m 1772520300	13	$17	22	21	+1	open	—	03-03 06:59
eth updown 5m 1773908400	8	$17	21	21	+0	open	—	03-19 08:23
eth updown 15m 1772514900	14	$16	19	15	+4	open	—	03-03 05:26
eth updown 15m 1772522100	14	$16	18	18	+0	open	—	03-03 07:28
btc updown 15m 1769925600	10	$16	16	11	+4	open	—	02-01 06:13
eth updown 15m 1772245800	15	$15	18	16	+1	open	—	02-28 02:44
eth updown 5m 1773906300	6	$14	17	16	+0	open	—	03-19 07:48
eth updown 15m 1772779500	13	$14	15	12	+2	open	—	03-06 06:58
eth updown 15m 1772544600	12	$14	28	27	+1	open	—	03-03 13:42
eth updown 15m 1772545500	11	$13	20	20	+0	open	—	03-03 13:58
btc updown 15m 1772242200	12	$13	14	11	+4	open	—	02-28 01:43
eth updown 15m 1772505000	12	$13	14	14	+0	open	—	03-03 02:44
eth updown 15m 1772865000	11	$13	13	12	+1	open	—	03-07 06:44
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	2	$13	5	9	-5	open	—	03-20 06:33
eth updown 15m 1772519400	10	$13	16	13	+2	open	—	03-03 06:41
eth updown 15m 1772693100	10	$13	10	8	+2	open	—	03-05 06:55
eth updown 15m 1772263800	12	$12	10	8	+2	open	—	02-28 07:43
btc updown 15m 1769933700	9	$12	9	6	+2	open	—	02-01 08:27
eth updown 15m 1772868600	11	$12	17	12	+5	open	—	03-07 07:43
btc updown 15m 1770036300	12	$12	12	9	+2	open	—	02-02 12:58
btc updown 15m 1769928300	8	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	02-01 06:55
btc updown 15m 1772181900	11	$12	13	10	+3	open	—	02-27 08:57
btc updown 15m 1770021900	8	$12	10	5	+5	open	—	02-02 09:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-28 14:04:37	bitcoin up or down on june 28 2026	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xb36b9a…
06-28 14:03:35	wti up or down on june 29 2026	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x5b6b5f…
06-28 14:02:59	will banksy create a new mural or street artwork by december 31	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$1	0x5d0e40…
06-15 02:35:16	cs2 gz1 mandl 2026 06 15	Ground Zero	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xbb6e3d…
06-15 02:34:52	lol ktc sgw 2026 06 15	KT Rolster Challengers	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xee3096…
05-31 02:41:35	San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x866167…
05-31 02:41:12	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x17e7f5…
05-31 02:37:10	Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2	LOUD	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x8c6ba6…
05-22 06:48:36	ITF Kutaisi: Daniil Ostapenkov vs Kevin Edengren	Daniil Ostapenkov	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x26ac30…
05-21 08:06:26	Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A	paiN	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xfa7d76…
05-12 11:21:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x7a67cd…
05-12 11:21:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	SELL	3	44¢	$1	0xb89686…
05-12 11:21:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x55dca2…
05-12 11:15:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x9baa1e…
05-12 11:14:19	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0x13b70e…
05-12 11:12:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xa55318…
05-12 11:11:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	SELL	3	65¢	$2	0xfa5820…
05-12 11:10:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x237fb6…
05-12 11:05:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x11b100…
05-12 11:04:19	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	SELL	4	34¢	$1	0x59e102…
05-12 11:03:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x78ebe4…
05-12 11:03:37	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	SELL	4	25¢	$1	0x330c67…
05-12 11:03:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x8b3670…
05-12 11:02:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	SELL	2	78¢	$1	0xce3f9c…
05-12 11:01:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x2b9d45…
05-12 10:59:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	SELL	7	24¢	$2	0x8e37c8…
05-12 10:59:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xda023f…
05-12 10:57:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	31¢	$1	0x49e92a…
05-12 10:56:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xfa391b…
05-12 10:55:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xe58025…
05-12 10:55:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x6f9fec…
05-12 10:52:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xc6afb3…
05-12 10:51:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	SELL	4	15¢	$1	0xe846f6…
05-12 10:50:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xaaf55b…
05-12 10:47:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	SELL	3	48¢	$1	0x03902d…
05-12 10:47:19	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xa6af34…
05-12 10:47:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0x3e462c…
05-12 10:45:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x17738b…
05-12 10:44:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0x425e2c…
05-12 10:44:03	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x53d128…
05-12 10:42:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	SELL	4	22¢	$1	0x634939…
05-12 10:41:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x3a9eb5…
05-12 10:40:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	SELL	2	72¢	$1	0x6c18d5…
05-12 10:40:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xda88b2…
05-12 10:12:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x79e6e8…
05-12 10:11:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	36¢	$1	0xbadea6…
05-12 10:10:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xef3662…
05-12 10:09:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x19b89d…
05-12 10:07:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x72a001…
05-12 10:06:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xa6a2d3…
05-12 10:05:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	SELL	4	39¢	$1	0xf04b93…
05-12 10:05:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xb40dc2…
05-12 10:03:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x079721…
05-12 10:02:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	SELL	2	74¢	$2	0x8ffb14…
05-12 10:00:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xcbd821…
05-12 09:57:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0xad38a9…
05-12 09:57:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xb46052…
05-12 09:56:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	SELL	3	71¢	$2	0x874fec…
05-12 09:55:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xd6d710…
05-12 09:50:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xfa4dd2…
05-12 09:46:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x0f7e65…
05-12 09:46:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	SELL	3	57¢	$1	0x215558…
05-12 09:45:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xb74568…
05-12 09:44:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0xb3a9a3…
05-12 09:40:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x3c6fc7…
05-12 09:35:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x3e0d66…
05-11 09:36:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	SELL	2	68¢	$2	0xe5656a…
05-11 09:35:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x745178…
05-11 09:31:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	SELL	3	51¢	$1	0xd219e5…
05-11 09:31:45	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x7b7853…
05-11 09:30:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0xf2a94e…
05-11 09:30:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x313898…
05-11 09:29:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0xa2d824…
05-11 09:27:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x40ec53…
05-11 09:26:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0xf700e0…
05-11 09:25:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xf32df8…
05-11 09:20:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x718663…
05-11 09:20:37	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0xcd78a5…
05-11 09:20:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x52963c…
05-11 09:17:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	SELL	2	73¢	$2	0x8d23d1…
05-11 09:15:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x0bb965…
05-11 09:12:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	SELL	3	56¢	$2	0x70b234…
05-11 09:12:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x8ff9d7…
05-11 09:11:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0x9a4833…
05-11 09:10:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x5bc807…
05-11 09:07:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	SELL	3	53¢	$2	0x407dd5…
05-11 09:06:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xd405f3…
05-11 09:05:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x1f2e7b…
05-11 09:05:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x7e78e5…
05-11 09:02:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xfeee32…
05-11 09:01:15	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	SELL	2	77¢	$1	0x2620ae…
05-11 09:00:13	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xffff1f…
05-11 08:58:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0xcd2fa0…
05-11 08:57:15	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x2ee354…
05-11 08:56:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0xdeac7a…
05-11 08:55:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xd60418…
05-11 08:52:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xa50c65…
05-11 08:52:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0xe26cc4…
05-11 08:50:45	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xba38b4…
05-11 08:48:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xde894b…