Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$38

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

62.3%

Resolved

285

Trades

299

lifetime

Volume

$375

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

6 positions

First seen

2026-07-26

last 11-06 11:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 83 days

Categories

Other

91% 62% +$44

Politics

7% 46% -$6

Tech

1% 100% +$1

Crypto

1% 50% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

71 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 6, 2026?	No	+2	$1	100¢	$2	+$1	11-04 05:56
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	+1	$1	96¢	$1	+$0	11-03 04:02
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 11, 2026?	No	+1	$1	76¢	$1	+$0	11-06 11:41
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	+2	$1	42¢	$1	+$0	11-05 18:05
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 6?	Down	+3	$1	3¢	$0	-$1	11-06 02:46
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 6, 2026?	Yes	+3	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	11-02 12:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
sono quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 29 2026 0pt2	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	07-27 19:53
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of September 7 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	No	-$2	09-08 00:59
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	No	+$3	08-16 17:27
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	2	$2	5	+5	No	-$1	10-22 20:45
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	08-17 03:55
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	Yes	-$2	08-25 21:54
Will anyone say "Coffee" during Big Brother E37?	1	$2	5	+5	No	+$3	09-20 02:48
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	08-02 23:35
Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in August?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	09-02 10:00
next mythos class model released by september 2 2026	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	08-30 13:43
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	08-13 14:22
will wti reach 90 in august 2026	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$2	08-19 06:22
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	No	-$2	08-26 16:29
nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	1	$2	6	+6	No	-$2	08-20 20:30
Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$2	08-05 21:58
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	08-20 00:43
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-15 22:30
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	No	-$2	08-26 08:23
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	+$3	08-09 07:17
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in August?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-02 08:27
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	08-04 09:49
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	08-21 12:45
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	10	+10	Yes	+$8	08-13 22:30
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in August?	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	+$3	09-01 23:39
Will any other model be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?	1	$2	7	+7	Yes	+$5	08-27 00:50
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	08-15 00:51
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	1	$2	3	+3	No	-$2	08-07 01:59
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	08-17 20:18
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	08-15 12:26
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-02 06:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 11:41:55	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 11, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x90be2e…
11-06 02:46:21	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 6?	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x00c399…
11-05 18:05:58	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x8cad44…
11-05 09:50:39	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xa6e015…
11-04 23:10:06	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xed6e87…
11-04 14:12:10	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xc62159…
11-04 05:56:58	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xb71b3d…
11-03 21:56:39	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xd1f007…
11-03 12:11:24	Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in October?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x0871e2…
11-03 04:02:54	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x00f6b5…
11-03 04:02:49	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xf77ee9…
11-02 20:02:28	Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xfcdd11…
11-02 12:01:39	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x184cc4…
11-02 04:01:25	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 2?	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xfbe14a…
11-02 03:49:43	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x20e452…
11-01 19:44:28	Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xcdf8da…
11-01 00:46:07	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xc3fef2…
10-31 14:45:03	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xd82113…
10-30 21:04:40	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xdf4425…
10-30 11:02:22	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xdc10b1…
10-30 02:04:21	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x1fe50d…
10-29 15:25:14	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x9d193e…
10-29 07:13:04	Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xbb82b8…
10-28 23:12:56	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x527230…
10-28 03:00:14	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x94d877…
10-27 18:59:33	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x0013c3…
10-27 10:58:18	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x2db176…
10-27 02:58:09	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xf11a86…
10-27 02:57:17	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xfcc9e2…
10-26 18:17:03	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $562.50 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xe41e25…
10-26 10:09:29	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xe4bfa4…
10-26 02:09:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x5b822d…
10-25 18:08:18	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.4% in September?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xb852ff…
10-25 10:07:45	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x14fa06…
10-25 02:07:27	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xd8104a…
10-24 14:10:38	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xf2f982…
10-24 05:52:35	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xc59dcf…
10-23 20:57:06	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x7d7483…
10-23 12:47:54	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x9a6a0a…
10-23 04:47:14	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 23?	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x652e79…
10-22 20:45:35	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xcc0384…
10-22 20:43:24	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x223753…
10-22 12:41:56	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x8a893f…
10-22 04:41:09	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x821bcc…
10-21 20:14:33	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x113472…
10-21 11:59:39	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x653b28…
10-21 03:59:15	Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth 3.5% to 5%?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x9c0c2b…
10-20 19:57:38	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $174 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x8a0dab…
10-20 11:51:57	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 20?	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xe6a6b8…
10-20 03:51:39	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x77478c…
10-19 19:51:30	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xa0a648…
10-19 11:51:26	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xc9df1e…
10-19 03:51:06	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $332 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x52bc96…
10-18 19:50:54	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x89e0a0…
10-18 19:50:23	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x9eaaa7…
10-18 11:50:05	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xdee8f8…
10-18 03:31:32	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xef1e29…
10-17 19:20:57	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x3c86ba…
10-17 10:56:26	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xaff752…
10-17 02:11:09	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x491f0d…
10-16 17:23:32	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xac54b1…
10-16 08:15:01	spx up or down on october 16 2026	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x19b413…
10-16 00:02:43	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xb9c76c…
10-15 13:34:29	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x90fe37…
10-15 05:21:26	spy up or down on october 15 2026	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xa1c0d1…
10-14 21:20:52	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x4d3046…
10-14 11:00:49	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x2acfb9…
10-14 02:57:52	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xc69ac7…
10-13 06:55:29	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x855600…
10-12 22:55:15	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xa07666…
10-12 14:54:59	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x3211fa…
10-12 06:34:56	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x119d70…
10-11 22:34:17	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x7ccd03…
10-11 14:32:10	Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%?	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x0ac6a1…
10-11 14:31:21	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xcb2d87…
10-11 06:18:36	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x26ff09…
10-10 21:32:51	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xc5bc02…
10-10 13:30:04	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x9f535e…
10-10 04:42:45	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x58bdc2…
10-09 19:12:34	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x11951c…
10-09 11:10:52	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x777cbb…
10-09 03:10:45	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x8c4f3c…
10-08 19:10:20	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x11e1a8…
10-08 10:09:00	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x8a0cb7…
10-08 02:08:47	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x5aa4e4…
10-07 14:40:32	Will Corpus Christi FC win on 2026-10-07?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x3bf81f…
10-07 14:05:31	SC Internacional vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x371294…
10-06 15:46:54	Will FC Supra Du Quebec win on 2026-10-07?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xa0a475…
10-06 12:11:09	Will Spalding United FC win on 2026-10-06?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xcd5d8c…
10-06 11:36:21	Will Guandong GZ-Power FC win on 2026-10-07?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x8ee1a0…
10-06 07:44:30	Wingate & Finchley FC vs. Bedford Town FC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xc49606…
10-05 13:05:04	Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xd7e940…
10-04 19:56:50	Will CA Bucaramanga win on 2026-10-04?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xa07635…
10-04 16:53:13	Will Costa Rica win on 2026-10-04?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x52e311…
10-04 13:16:29	Will Elon post "Border" on X this week?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xe8b99f…
10-04 08:57:11	Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-10-05?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xb93f82…
10-04 08:57:10	Costa Rica vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x110eb1…
10-04 08:21:31	Racing Club Montevideo vs. CA Penarol Montevideo: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xd25809…
10-04 08:21:28	San Martin de Tucuman vs. Gimnasia Y Tiro de Salta: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x6078ce…
10-04 07:43:52	Will Atletico de Rafaela win on 2026-10-04?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x2d8c54…