Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$24

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

60.9%

Resolved (90d)

284

Trades (90d)

284

327 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$320

$403 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

9 positions

First seen

2026-07-26

last 11-15 10:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 90 days

Categories

Other

91% 63% +$46

Politics

7% 47% -$7

Tech

1% 100% +$1

Crypto

1% 50% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

72 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 14 to November 16, 2026?	Yes	+4	$1	48¢	$2	+$1	11-14 18:27
Will OpenRouter process between 210T and 220T tokens the week of November 9?	Yes	+2	$1	88¢	$2	+$1	11-13 18:16
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?	No	+1	$1	81¢	$1	+$0	11-12 01:25
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 14 to November 16, 2026?	No	+1	$1	68¢	$1	+$0	11-15 10:28
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?	Yes	+2	$1	44¢	$1	+$0	11-09 23:49
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?	No	+1	$1	73¢	$1	$0	11-14 10:22
Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?	Yes	+4	$1	25¢	$1	$0	11-15 02:28
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?	No	+1	$1	66¢	$1	$0	11-10 15:54
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?	Yes	+5	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	11-14 02:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
sono quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 29 2026 0pt2	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	07-27 19:53
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of September 7 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	No	-$2	09-08 00:59
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	No	+$3	08-16 17:27
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	2	$2	5	+5	No	-$1	10-22 20:45
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	08-17 03:55
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	Yes	-$2	08-25 21:54
Will anyone say "Coffee" during Big Brother E37?	1	$2	5	+5	No	+$3	09-20 02:48
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	08-02 23:35
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	2	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$0	11-08 03:47
Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in August?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	09-02 10:00
next mythos class model released by september 2 2026	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	08-30 13:43
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	08-13 14:22
will wti reach 90 in august 2026	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$2	08-19 06:22
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	No	-$2	08-26 16:29
nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	1	$2	6	+6	No	-$2	08-20 20:30
Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$2	08-05 21:58
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	08-20 00:43
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-15 22:30
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	No	-$2	08-26 08:23
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	+$3	08-09 07:17
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in August?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-02 08:27
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	08-04 09:49
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	08-21 12:45
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	10	+10	Yes	+$8	08-13 22:30
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in August?	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	+$3	09-01 23:39
Will any other model be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?	1	$2	7	+7	Yes	+$5	08-27 00:50
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	1	$2	10	+10	No	-$2	08-15 00:51
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	1	$2	3	+3	No	-$2	08-07 01:59
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	08-17 20:18
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	08-15 12:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-15 10:28:19	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 14 to November 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x4003e9…
11-15 02:28:07	Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x123bf1…
11-14 18:27:32	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 14 to November 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xdbf1d6…
11-14 10:22:59	Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xd3b446…
11-14 02:21:13	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xbff2df…
11-13 18:16:49	Will OpenRouter process between 210T and 220T tokens the week of November 9?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x762c28…
11-13 10:16:40	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 13?	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x622724…
11-13 02:15:15	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 12 to November 14, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x5bcd4c…
11-12 17:42:22	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 12?	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x4e8635…
11-12 09:31:24	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x5ab022…
11-12 01:25:52	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x43dbd1…
11-12 01:25:09	Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xfedc28…
11-11 16:24:01	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 12 to November 14, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xaee880…
11-11 08:23:33	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xb6eeee…
11-11 00:23:21	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x8fa90d…
11-10 15:54:57	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x3a1407…
11-10 15:54:54	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xdd02f7…
11-10 07:54:46	will nvda dip to 172 by november 9 2026 from november 9	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x6d0620…
11-09 23:49:39	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x37db10…
11-09 23:49:37	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x01be04…
11-09 03:49:01	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	22¢	$1	0xcf231a…
11-08 19:48:39	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xf77916…
11-08 11:48:04	Will Trump say "Ballroom" during "60 Minutes" extended interview?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xa24ebd…
11-08 03:47:54	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x00c5d8…
11-08 03:44:16	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xb95810…
11-07 19:33:19	Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xed7312…
11-07 11:33:07	Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x24a349…
11-06 20:23:27	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xfae576…
11-06 11:41:55	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 11, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x90be2e…
11-06 02:46:21	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 6?	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x00c399…
11-05 18:05:58	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x8cad44…
11-05 09:50:39	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xa6e015…
11-04 23:10:06	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xed6e87…
11-04 14:12:10	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xc62159…
11-04 05:56:58	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xb71b3d…
11-03 21:56:39	Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xd1f007…
11-03 12:11:24	Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in October?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x0871e2…
11-03 04:02:54	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x00f6b5…
11-03 04:02:49	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xf77ee9…
11-02 20:02:28	Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xfcdd11…
11-02 12:01:39	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x184cc4…
11-02 04:01:25	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 2?	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xfbe14a…
11-02 03:49:43	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x20e452…
11-01 19:44:28	Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xcdf8da…
11-01 00:46:07	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xc3fef2…
10-31 14:45:03	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xd82113…
10-30 21:04:40	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xdf4425…
10-30 11:02:22	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xdc10b1…
10-30 02:04:21	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x1fe50d…
10-29 15:25:14	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x9d193e…
10-29 07:13:04	Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xbb82b8…
10-28 23:12:56	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x527230…
10-28 03:00:14	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x94d877…
10-27 18:59:33	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x0013c3…
10-27 10:58:18	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x2db176…
10-27 02:58:09	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xf11a86…
10-27 02:57:17	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xfcc9e2…
10-26 18:17:03	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $562.50 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xe41e25…
10-26 10:09:29	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xe4bfa4…
10-26 02:09:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x5b822d…
10-25 18:08:18	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.4% in September?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xb852ff…
10-25 10:07:45	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x14fa06…
10-25 02:07:27	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xd8104a…
10-24 14:10:38	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xf2f982…
10-24 05:52:35	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xc59dcf…
10-23 20:57:06	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x7d7483…
10-23 12:47:54	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x9a6a0a…
10-23 04:47:14	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 23?	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x652e79…
10-22 20:45:35	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xcc0384…
10-22 20:43:24	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x223753…
10-22 12:41:56	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x8a893f…
10-22 04:41:09	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x821bcc…
10-21 20:14:33	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x113472…
10-21 11:59:39	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x653b28…
10-21 03:59:15	Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth 3.5% to 5%?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x9c0c2b…
10-20 19:57:38	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $174 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x8a0dab…
10-20 11:51:57	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 20?	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xe6a6b8…
10-20 03:51:39	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x77478c…
10-19 19:51:30	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xa0a648…
10-19 11:51:26	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xc9df1e…
10-19 03:51:06	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $332 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x52bc96…
10-18 19:50:54	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x89e0a0…
10-18 19:50:23	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x9eaaa7…
10-18 11:50:05	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xdee8f8…
10-18 03:31:32	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xef1e29…
10-17 19:20:57	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x3c86ba…
10-17 10:56:26	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xaff752…
10-17 02:11:09	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x491f0d…
10-16 17:23:32	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xac54b1…
10-16 08:15:01	spx up or down on october 16 2026	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x19b413…
10-16 00:02:43	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xb9c76c…
10-15 13:34:29	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x90fe37…
10-15 05:21:26	spy up or down on october 15 2026	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xa1c0d1…
10-14 21:20:52	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x4d3046…
10-14 11:00:49	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x2acfb9…
10-14 02:57:52	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xc69ac7…
10-13 06:55:29	Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x855600…
10-12 22:55:15	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xa07666…
10-12 14:54:59	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x3211fa…
10-12 06:34:56	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x119d70…