Optimistic-Caliber-Attenuation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

67.1%

Resolved

Trades

253

lifetime

Volume

$7.49K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$30

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-08

last 05-17 11:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

42% 44% $-1

Politics

40% — —

Other

18% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 51 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	16	$1.5K	1,600	1,600	+0	open	—	04-13 14:07
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	12	$910	1,188	1,188	+0	open	—	04-14 02:28
lol ns drx 2026 04 11	7	$795	665	665	+0	open	—	04-11 08:48
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	6	$527	594	594	+0	open	—	04-11 08:46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$522	400	400	+0	open	—	04-17 16:44
btc updown 5m 1775687100	3	$300	300	0	+300	open	—	04-08 22:29
xrp updown 5m 1775750400	3	$274	275	0	+275	open	—	04-09 16:03
btc updown 5m 1775698200	1	$250	250	0	+250	open	—	04-09 01:33
sol updown 5m 1775669700	8	$239	240	0	+240	open	—	04-08 17:39
sol updown 5m 1775727600	14	$224	250	0	+250	open	—	04-09 09:43
eth updown 5m 1775748900	9	$219	225	0	+225	open	—	04-09 15:38
xrp updown 5m 1775689200	3	$213	214	0	+214	open	—	04-08 23:04
xrp updown 5m 1775669700	4	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	04-08 17:39
btc updown 5m 1775741700	9	$167	125	50	+75	open	—	04-09 13:39
btc updown 5m 1775741400	5	$120	75	50	+25	open	—	04-09 13:34
xrp updown 5m 1775749500	5	$117	75	50	+25	open	—	04-09 15:49
eth updown 5m 1775672100	1	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	04-08 18:19
btc updown 5m 1775742300	3	$70	50	25	+25	open	—	04-09 13:49
sol updown 5m 1775689200	2	$44	44	0	+44	open	—	04-08 23:04
btc updown 5m 1775663100	4	$39	40	0	+40	open	—	04-08 15:48
eth updown 5m 1775662500	3	$30	30	0	+30	open	—	04-08 15:39
eth updown 5m 1775687100	3	$30	30	0	+30	open	—	04-08 22:28
eth updown 5m 1775669700	4	$30	30	0	+30	open	—	04-08 17:38
eth updown 5m 1775741700	1	$25	25	0	+25	open	—	04-09 13:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	3	$23	20	10	+10	open	—	05-16 15:13
bitcoin up or down april 14 2026 11am et	4	$23	30	29	+1	open	—	04-14 15:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	3	$22	28	11	+17	open	—	04-29 16:22
eth updown 5m 1775698200	1	$22	22	0	+22	open	—	04-09 01:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7AM ET	6	$20	20	10	+10	open	—	05-04 11:51
btc updown 5m 1775673600	2	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	04-08 18:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-17 11:59:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0xe172db…
05-17 06:41:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0xcd1fbe…
05-17 06:00:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	SELL	19	35¢	$7	0x3da7ba…
05-17 06:00:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	21	38¢	$8	0xfc7835…
05-17 05:00:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	44¢	$5	0x0e5769…
05-17 01:57:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	11	75¢	$8	0xa92f71…
05-17 01:57:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	11	85¢	$9	0x28fafe…
05-16 15:17:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0xb4931f…
05-16 15:17:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0xa67c41…
05-16 15:13:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x54a3ac…
05-16 15:13:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x57a8cb…
05-16 15:12:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0xb108ee…
05-16 14:18:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	SELL	12	28¢	$3	0x88411f…
05-16 14:18:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0x0be7f8…
05-16 14:01:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Up	SELL	12	28¢	$3	0x969bc2…
05-16 14:00:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	12	44¢	$5	0x9094de…
05-16 02:04:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	13	17¢	$2	0xf7c704…
05-15 14:19:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	12	68¢	$8	0xb2ee64…
05-14 03:11:58	BNB Up or Down on May 14?	Down	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0x3e19be…
05-07 14:17:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	13	11¢	$1	0x757444…
05-06 23:58:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0xa8d40d…
05-06 23:58:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x9cd047…
05-06 23:52:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0xc3214d…
05-06 23:52:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x1c3460…
05-06 23:49:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	11	48¢	$5	0x78a557…
05-06 15:45:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x0f0695…
05-06 15:35:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0xd2bc58…
05-06 15:32:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0xf2b59e…
05-06 15:25:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x24919d…
05-05 07:18:56	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	SELL	1	63¢	$0	0xc0209f…
05-05 07:17:04	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	SELL	4	57¢	$2	0x58931d…
05-05 07:16:16	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	62¢	$0	0x5031fc…
05-05 07:16:06	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x0a0824…
05-05 07:15:54	Solana Up or Down - May 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xf7a97c…
05-04 13:37:52	BNB Up or Down - May 4, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x89ee35…
05-04 13:09:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	0	56¢	$0	0x75f5d3…
05-04 13:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x9e9f01…
05-04 11:51:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x5ac303…
05-04 11:47:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xa19045…
05-04 11:37:36	BNB Up or Down - May 4, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x6921f2…
05-04 11:31:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7AM ET	Up	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x11880c…
05-04 11:30:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x336eff…
05-04 11:27:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7AM ET	Up	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0x238a32…
05-04 11:21:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xe78945…
05-02 13:16:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0xfdc948…
05-02 13:15:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xa1fd34…
05-02 13:15:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x3eabe4…
05-02 13:15:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xa501cd…
05-02 08:55:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	65¢	$7	0x99e0ca…
05-02 08:45:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0xe0aa8b…
05-02 08:45:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0x2c02e1…
05-02 08:38:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0x9f342e…
05-02 08:34:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	14	16¢	$2	0x87fec0…
05-02 08:17:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	SELL	3	27¢	$1	0x5cdeb1…
05-02 08:17:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	32¢	$4	0x90f69a…
05-02 08:17:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	12	32¢	$4	0x7a0bc8…
05-01 15:24:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	58¢	$6	0x16eb0f…
04-29 16:22:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0x319b3f…
04-29 16:19:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0x997e73…
04-29 16:19:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x132ee5…
04-29 16:02:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0x794ead…
04-29 16:02:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xba4509…
04-29 16:02:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0x51ce2a…
04-29 11:57:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	15	26¢	$4	0x6ca8db…
04-29 11:56:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	23¢	$3	0xa4ffbb…
04-29 11:56:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	23¢	$3	0xc5782a…
04-29 11:56:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x203c57…
04-29 02:12:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	SELL	13	45¢	$6	0xe25c40…
04-29 02:11:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	11	40¢	$4	0xbc6557…
04-29 02:11:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	11	48¢	$5	0xa31926…
04-29 02:09:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	11	25¢	$3	0x4f64d0…
04-28 23:40:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xfe875b…
04-28 23:40:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	52¢	$6	0x92ad69…
04-28 23:37:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0x08cfa7…
04-28 15:27:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	74¢	$8	0x9da157…
04-26 00:22:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0xb5dbc6…
04-26 00:20:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	12	10¢	$1	0x0f00a6…
04-25 23:44:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x438f9c…
04-25 23:38:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xce3a02…
04-25 22:52:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x65468a…
04-25 22:48:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0xf35d27…
04-25 22:29:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x828616…
04-25 22:18:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xd563d3…
04-25 21:56:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5PM ET	Up	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x788dba…
04-25 21:52:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x47d3bf…
04-25 19:58:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x91b52a…
04-25 18:01:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x1e6bce…
04-25 16:55:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xed2b0f…
04-25 16:55:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x0dd049…
04-23 10:05:24	bitcoin up or down april 23 2026 6am et	Up	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x9d2437…
04-23 08:21:44	bitcoin up or down april 23 2026 4am et	Down	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0xf1bdcf…
04-23 05:20:14	bitcoin up or down april 23 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x66d341…
04-23 05:20:06	bitcoin up or down april 23 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0xd65041…
04-23 02:27:26	bitcoin up or down april 22 2026 10pm et	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x534d88…
04-23 02:26:28	bitcoin up or down april 22 2026 10pm et	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xef94e5…
04-23 02:26:28	bitcoin up or down april 22 2026 10pm et	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x984892…
04-23 02:16:54	bitcoin up or down april 22 2026 10pm et	Up	BUY	11	16¢	$2	0x3659db…
04-22 17:01:40	bitcoin up or down april 22 2026 1pm et	Down	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0x759291…
04-21 14:57:34	bitcoin up or down april 21 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	11	15¢	$2	0xd5be58…
04-21 12:38:42	bitcoin up or down april 21 2026 8am et	Up	BUY	12	20¢	$2	0x9e9e95…