Full-Variability — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$12.9K

Unrealized P&L

-$137

Hit rate

69.8%

Resolved

863

Trades

10,000

lifetime

Volume

$138.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$2.45K

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 13:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 108 days

Categories

Other

91% 40% +$9,661

Sports

5% 39% -$49

Pop-Culture

3% 47% +$2,172

Politics

0% 100% +$1,022

Crypto

0% 100% +$14

Tech

0% 100% +$65

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 262 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	+1,440	$1,266	93¢	$1.3K	+$73	10-27 09:09
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	No	+552	$475	86¢	$475	$0	09-07 02:44
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	-306	-$115	91¢	$-277	-$162	10-15 05:03
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	+209	$188	87¢	$181	-$6	10-27 21:12
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	-103	-$90	98¢	$-100	-$10	08-03 23:25
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	+859	$114	6¢	$50	-$64	07-30 16:53
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	+50	$32	34¢	$17	-$15	07-31 15:56
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	-150	-$58	7¢	$-11	+$47	07-06 16:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will kleber mendona filho be nominated for best director at the 98th academy awards	17	$4.6K	3,242	2,274	+968	No	+$145	01-22 11:25
Will Swapped be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?	30	$4.0K	6,293	143	+6,150	open	—	10-13 21:31
will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	76	$3.1K	5,436	4,140	+1,295	No	+$1,364	03-06 23:23
will one battle after another win best cinematography at the 98th academy awards	69	$2.2K	1,486	1,486	+0	No	+$48	03-13 16:07
Will The Black Ball win Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	38	$2.1K	3,956	3,283	+673	open	—	10-20 13:38
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	59	$2.1K	1,414	1,414	+0	No	+$40	08-09 03:43
Will “DTF St. Louis” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or anthology series?	48	$2.0K	2,053	280	+1,773	Yes	+$265	09-15 02:21
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	42	$1.8K	2,024	1,000	+1,024	No	-$628	07-19 18:46
will virgin river season 7 be the top us netflix show this week 827	17	$1.7K	3,431	1,772	+1,659	Yes	+$1,205	03-24 19:24
will the dinosaurs be the 2 us netflix show this week 774	55	$1.6K	7,580	0	+7,580	Yes	-$1,635	03-16 22:11
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	50	$1.6K	1,790	500	+1,290	open	—	10-27 09:09
Will The Pitt be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?	11	$1.6K	1,457	417	+1,040	open	—	08-09 02:17
will stellan skarsgrd win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards	156	$1.6K	2,428	443	+1,985	No	+$1,062	02-28 16:31
will the super mario galaxy movie opening weekend box office be greater than 200m	33	$1.4K	1,470	1,410	+60	No	+$141	04-04 02:03
will one piece season 2 be the top global netflix show this week 385	37	$1.4K	7,574	810	+6,764	Yes	-$1,195	03-31 18:54
Will Teach You a Lesson be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?	2	$1.3K	1,398	0	+1,398	open	—	08-04 16:45
will marty supreme win exactly 4 awards at the oscars	1	$1.3K	1,296	0	+1,296	No	+$44	03-09 08:36
will run away be the 2 us netflix show this week january 6 2026	82	$1.2K	1,277	1,268	+9	Yes	-$74	01-05 14:18
will rental family be nominated for best international feature film at the 98th academy awards	6	$1.2K	1,197	0	+1,197	No	+$37	01-14 01:34
Will Milly Alcock be the #1 searched actor on Google this year?	15	$1.1K	1,170	423	+747	open	—	09-05 02:47
will people we meet on vacation be the top global netflix movie this week january 13 2026	53	$1.1K	1,140	116	+1,024	Yes	+$165	01-12 10:21
Will "The Drama" be nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?	1	$1.1K	1,272	0	+1,272	open	—	10-28 17:42
will xo kitty season 3 be the top us netflix show this week	23	$1.1K	1,111	304	+807	Yes	+$337	04-06 21:12
will stranger things season 5 have more than 75 million views the week of the finale	9	$1.1K	451	640	-189	No	+$27	01-06 14:41
will timothe chalamet win outstanding performance by a male actor in a leading role at the 2026 sag awards	47	$1.0K	3,123	0	+3,123	No	+$2,084	03-02 00:37
Will Lamine Yamal rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?	2	$1.0K	1,347	0	+1,347	open	—	10-11 03:55
will frankenstein win best film at the 2026 bafta awards	4	$953	850	111	+739	No	+$8	02-16 11:39
will bridgerton season 1 be the top global netflix show this week february 3 2026	20	$939	1,161	613	+547	No	+$823	02-02 06:59
will chalamet be said 5 times at the oscars	7	$876	645	727	-82	No	+$494	03-16 05:09
will finding her edge be the top global netflix show this week february 3 2026	11	$859	637	317	+320	No	+$95	02-02 06:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 13:47:50	Will Obsession rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?	No	BUY	13	11¢	$1	0xbad3e5…
10-29 11:24:04	Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	40	79¢	$32	0x3dd243…
10-29 08:10:28	Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xf7f0e7…
10-29 07:23:58	Will Obsession rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?	No	BUY	15	11¢	$2	0xcd262e…
10-29 07:23:26	Will Obsession rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?	No	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x811a58…
10-29 03:40:28	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x3bc329…
10-29 01:52:29	Will 007 First Light win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0x9ff49f…
10-29 01:52:28	Will 007 First Light win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	BUY	83	0¢	$0	0xaf3762…
10-28 23:57:05	Will "I Knew It, I Knew You" from Toy Story 5 be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x77c595…
10-28 23:57:04	Will "I Knew It, I Knew You" from Toy Story 5 be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xd0a9d5…
10-28 20:29:49	Will Denis Villeneuve be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	16	46¢	$7	0x7b26cf…
10-28 19:04:37	Will Denis Villeneuve be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xe40b8b…
10-28 17:42:10	Will "The Drama" be nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	1,272	84¢	$1,067	0xcd6ea4…
10-28 17:38:37	Will 007 First Light win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xa7a8f7…
10-28 15:37:53	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	30	21¢	$6	0x9b763b…
10-28 14:26:35	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	40	16¢	$6	0x7a3394…
10-28 14:26:08	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	60	16¢	$10	0x690984…
10-28 12:00:35	Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0xaddc11…
10-28 11:56:46	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0xf76624…
10-28 10:20:29	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	30	23¢	$7	0xb4e671…
10-28 07:49:01	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	49	21¢	$10	0x3b61a6…
10-28 07:48:49	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	49	21¢	$10	0x74c944…
10-28 05:23:29	Will Denis Villeneuve be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	526	46¢	$241	0x1bd2f6…
10-28 04:58:53	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	510	24¢	$122	0x5dc829…
10-28 04:43:43	Will "The Debut" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	26	75¢	$19	0x803c3c…
10-28 03:57:43	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x2a0ccd…
10-27 21:12:27	Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x6a4590…
10-27 20:04:12	Will 007 First Light win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x932837…
10-27 18:14:20	Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	0	42¢	$0	0xa3ece7…
10-27 18:10:54	Will 007 First Light win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	BUY	76	0¢	$0	0xd4ede3…
10-27 18:10:54	Will 007 First Light win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	BUY	25	0¢	$0	0x5b851f…
10-27 18:10:54	Will 007 First Light win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	BUY	17	0¢	$0	0x400bc9…
10-27 18:10:53	Will 007 First Light win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	BUY	65	0¢	$0	0xbb4d32…
10-27 18:10:32	Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	6	42¢	$3	0x06e549…
10-27 17:20:45	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x4f336d…
10-27 15:48:41	Will "Pokémon Pokopia" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x1badfc…
10-27 15:42:39	Will "Crimson Desert" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards?	Yes	BUY	142	0¢	$1	0x962981…
10-27 15:12:05	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x9251f0…
10-27 15:02:48	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	22	20¢	$4	0x69036a…
10-27 15:01:32	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x51146c…
10-27 15:01:23	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0xc166ae…
10-27 15:01:21	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	12	20¢	$2	0x631279…
10-27 14:24:39	Will Lindsey Vonn rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	25¢	$4	0xe0efdf…
10-27 12:18:57	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	40	18¢	$7	0x6de8b8…
10-27 12:18:54	Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	10	18¢	$2	0x965bd9…
10-27 12:10:47	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the top global Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	138	0¢	$0	0x895a80…
10-27 12:01:30	Will "FROM: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xbcae11…
10-27 12:00:18	Will Michael rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0x697bd2…
10-27 11:52:24	Will Olivia Wilde be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x6f2f2d…
10-27 11:35:15	Will Wagner Moura be the #1 searched actor on Google this year?	Yes	BUY	63	0¢	$0	0xa9456f…
10-27 10:08:18	Will Ali G be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026?	Yes	BUY	137	0¢	$1	0xb84b22…
10-27 10:08:18	Will Ali G be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026?	Yes	BUY	130	0¢	$1	0x6565c9…
10-27 10:08:18	Will Ali G be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026?	Yes	BUY	233	0¢	$1	0x231bf7…
10-27 09:26:47	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the top global Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	55	0¢	$0	0x207c62…
10-27 09:26:15	Will "FROM: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x438e82…
10-27 09:09:59	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x292452…
10-27 09:09:56	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xc70fb3…
10-27 09:09:56	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x902297…
10-27 09:09:24	Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0x376e4e…
10-27 08:48:27	Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	159	90¢	$144	0xcb94c4…
10-27 07:03:53	Will "Werwulf" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0x0df2d4…
10-27 06:50:12	Will "Werwulf" be nominated for Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	116	45¢	$52	0xc2599c…
10-27 06:43:02	Will "Pokémon Pokopia" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x46323a…
10-27 06:40:56	Will "FROM: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x6a441a…
10-27 06:36:11	Will "Pokémon Pokopia" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards?	Yes	BUY	23	0¢	$0	0xeb01b3…
10-27 04:40:42	Will 007 First Light win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x0ee65d…
10-27 02:56:09	Will "Pokémon Pokopia" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x7bbc53…
10-27 02:43:33	Will Denis Villeneuve be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	101	46¢	$46	0x3e23c8…
10-27 01:43:53	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	112	1¢	$1	0x141374…
10-27 01:31:09	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xf0c0c7…
10-27 01:31:08	Will "Gladiator II" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	No	BUY	400	1¢	$4	0x5a9885…
10-27 00:29:15	Will "Animals" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	BUY	168	1¢	$2	0xf41503…
10-27 00:28:47	Will "Animals" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	BUY	132	1¢	$1	0x7c41e2…
10-27 00:13:44	Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0xc910f0…
10-27 00:13:39	Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	6	40¢	$3	0x23587d…
10-27 00:07:32	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x6ad581…
10-26 23:09:18	Will "Below: Limited Series" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0xd1f0aa…
10-26 22:30:12	Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0xdfbc02…
10-26 22:13:23	Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	33	80¢	$26	0xe69e45…
10-26 22:08:23	Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	7	80¢	$6	0xa7bfa7…
10-26 21:46:27	Will 007 First Light win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	BUY	124	0¢	$0	0xf41962…
10-26 21:46:26	Will 007 First Light win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?	Yes	BUY	25	0¢	$0	0xda98cd…
10-26 21:39:47	Will Inde Navarrette win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xd645d1…
10-26 21:39:39	Will Inde Navarrette win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x7ef9d7…
10-26 20:09:23	Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xae94ff…
10-26 18:44:20	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	181	3¢	$5	0x5e115e…
10-26 18:44:17	Will "FROM: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	97	73¢	$71	0x95c816…
10-26 18:10:48	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	248	2¢	$5	0xb927da…
10-26 17:32:41	Will "007: First Light" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards?	Yes	BUY	165	13¢	$21	0x39515d…
10-26 17:13:41	Will "Animals" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x20a7ad…
10-26 16:28:38	Will "When I'm Home" from The Odyssey be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0xcf59dd…
10-26 15:41:26	Will "Love Is Blind: Boston" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	18	0¢	$0	0xe0d1de…
10-26 14:17:57	Will "Gladiator II" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xc0f586…
10-26 14:16:26	Will "Animals" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	BUY	46	5¢	$2	0x732bda…
10-26 14:16:23	Will "Animals" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	BUY	4	5¢	$0	0xe472cd…
10-26 13:26:39	Will "Love Is Blind: Boston" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	78	0¢	$0	0xdd7a01…
10-26 13:26:39	Will "Love Is Blind: Boston" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	24	0¢	$0	0xacaa3f…
10-26 13:25:54	Will "Love Is Blind: Boston" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x0f95e5…
10-26 13:24:08	Will "Love Is Blind: Boston" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	24	0¢	$0	0xe6f305…
10-26 13:22:35	Will "Love Is Blind: Boston" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x6fd72f…