Woeful-Reset — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$311

Unrealized P&L

-$35

Hit rate

77.9%

Resolved

Trades

379

lifetime

Volume

$12.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$33

Open exposure

$418

10 positions

First seen

2026-03-03

last 11-05 16:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 53 days

Categories

Other

75% 74% +$226

Politics

25% 55% +$99

Sports

0% 0% -$14

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	+231	$200	87¢	$201	+$1	11-04 17:47
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	+142	$131	92¢	$130	-$1	11-04 17:47
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	-56	-$72	94¢	$-53	+$19	09-23 19:59
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+77	$19	16¢	$12	-$7	11-04 17:51
trump putin and xi seen together before 2027	No	+69	$16	12¢	$9	-$8	10-14 15:41
NATO article 5 before 2027?	Yes	+121	$10	5¢	$6	-$4	09-19 07:56
russia coup attempt in 2026	Yes	+111	$11	2¢	$2	-$8	06-20 07:32
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+113	$14	2¢	$2	-$11	05-11 10:52
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	No	+17	$1	8¢	$1	+$0	11-04 17:33
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	+32	$19	4¢	$1	-$18	10-19 19:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will russia capture kupiansk by september 30 2026	8	$1.3K	709	709	+0	No	+$48	08-19 19:47
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?	6	$863	493	493	+0	open	—	10-12 07:16
Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?	3	$853	549	549	+0	open	—	11-04 17:44
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026?	4	$807	463	463	+0	open	—	09-28 19:54
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	7	$723	433	433	+0	open	—	11-05 16:14
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?	3	$704	407	407	+0	No	+$83	09-02 20:58
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?	10	$504	291	291	+0	No	+$34	09-25 19:14
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?	1	$434	0	443	-443	No	-$9	06-03 17:40
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	6	$367	220	220	+0	No	+$48	06-20 07:30
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?	3	$313	165	165	+0	No	+$1	09-02 20:49
will russia capture mala tokmachka by june 30 2026	2	$293	150	150	+0	No	-$2	06-15 15:28
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	9	$259	203	259	-56	open	—	09-23 19:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	7	$256	178	178	+0	No	+$18	05-16 19:52
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?	2	$238	129	129	+0	No	+$7	09-25 19:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	10	$233	200	245	-45	No	-$43	06-18 17:02
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	1	$200	231	0	+231	open	—	11-04 17:47
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	7	$169	141	141	+0	No	+$27	09-14 06:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	10	$166	131	131	+0	No	+$0	04-24 08:32
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	4	$152	126	126	+0	Yes	-$24	06-12 12:44
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	5	$144	126	58	+68	No	+$18	06-25 17:02
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	3	$141	153	11	+142	open	—	11-04 17:47
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	10	$132	86	86	+0	open	—	08-19 19:39
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	2	$120	67	67	+0	No	+$6	06-25 09:40
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	6	$120	177	177	+0	open	—	10-12 07:18
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	3	$106	63	63	+0	No	+$18	04-26 19:18
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by November 30, 2026?	1	$105	110	0	+110	open	—	11-05 16:15
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	4	$102	56	56	+0	No	+$7	05-21 15:39
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?	4	$101	55	55	+0	No	+$1	07-03 11:38
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?	6	$100	111	111	+0	open	—	09-23 19:59
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	5	$97	59	59	+0	Yes	+$20	04-12 20:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 16:15:00	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	110	95¢	$105	0x335474…
11-05 16:14:33	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	110	94¢	$104	0xbe3c4b…
11-04 17:51:09	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	18¢	$7	0x081dab…
11-04 17:50:09	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	SELL	19	37¢	$7	0x31db7e…
11-04 17:48:09	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x436a9f…
11-04 17:47:45	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	142	92¢	$131	0x45e5fc…
11-04 17:47:21	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	231	86¢	$200	0x346578…
11-04 17:44:40	Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	549	79¢	$431	0x830fa9…
11-04 17:36:00	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	19	34¢	$6	0x02b846…
11-04 17:33:21	Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x67eb01…
11-04 17:32:28	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	SELL	31	28¢	$9	0x6662b1…
10-29 17:49:19	Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	327	72¢	$236	0x27d8de…
10-29 17:48:31	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	257	92¢	$236	0xf69966…
10-28 09:51:14	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	31¢	$12	0x1bb177…
10-28 09:50:13	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	60	20¢	$12	0x59e621…
10-27 07:21:38	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x0c0252…
10-27 07:20:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	29	7¢	$2	0x4348f6…
10-26 06:57:41	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	BUY	26	41¢	$11	0xd9ec2d…
10-26 06:50:47	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 25, 2026?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x0f5494…
10-26 02:48:57	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	SELL	17	30¢	$5	0x91f3ae…
10-25 19:33:45	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	22	64¢	$14	0xfccf94…
10-25 19:32:23	Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	39	36¢	$14	0x2508fd…
10-25 06:43:00	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 25, 2026?	No	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0x9a5053…
10-25 06:41:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xd2a033…
10-25 06:39:18	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	22	33¢	$7	0xddfa67…
10-24 06:13:00	Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	39	34¢	$13	0xc50f92…
10-24 06:11:05	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	60	22¢	$13	0x1f6b8b…
10-21 15:58:44	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	121	34¢	$41	0x92d36a…
10-21 15:57:56	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	45	92¢	$41	0x2cbbdf…
10-19 19:23:36	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	66¢	$8	0x8e6e67…
10-19 18:57:44	Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in China by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x3a946c…
10-19 17:16:12	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	No	SELL	18	50¢	$9	0xb5531a…
10-19 16:35:56	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x953126…
10-19 15:46:06	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	No	SELL	16	32¢	$5	0xc7e0c8…
10-18 18:32:59	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	34	15¢	$5	0xb6d2a4…
10-18 18:32:30	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	92¢	$5	0xf70724…
10-14 15:42:01	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x86302b…
10-14 15:41:12	trump putin and xi seen together before 2027	No	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xaa808f…
10-14 15:40:39	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	22	37¢	$8	0x5f4e6b…
10-14 15:39:37	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	39	63¢	$25	0x80b2e4…
10-12 07:19:04	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	32	64¢	$20	0x9dc06e…
10-12 07:18:05	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	23	89¢	$21	0x60754b…
10-12 07:17:05	Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	221	84¢	$186	0xefe79d…
10-12 07:16:32	Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	206	90¢	$186	0x12a595…
10-06 19:03:45	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	130	78¢	$101	0xa9c999…
10-06 19:03:24	Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	111	91¢	$101	0x9481ac…
09-29 19:18:05	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	127	75¢	$95	0xd34a7d…
09-29 19:17:41	Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	111	86¢	$95	0xa83616…
09-29 05:45:18	russia ukraine peace talks by october 31 2026	No	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x2b7011…
09-29 05:44:08	Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	12¢	$2	0x878eb3…
09-28 20:13:21	Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x6c9834…
09-28 20:11:41	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	SELL	21	25¢	$5	0xafd478…
09-28 19:54:51	Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	428	88¢	$376	0xb46aa9…
09-28 19:54:18	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	422	89¢	$376	0x0f6d8d…
09-28 19:48:57	Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	65	85¢	$55	0x975a9e…
09-28 19:48:02	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	23	76¢	$18	0x4adf4f…
09-28 19:46:38	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	73	24¢	$18	0x7dd4f4…
09-27 20:29:21	trump putin and xi seen together before 2027	No	BUY	38	30¢	$11	0x116732…
09-27 20:28:44	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	90¢	$12	0x5958ec…
09-27 20:17:36	russia ukraine peace talks by october 31 2026	No	BUY	48	53¢	$25	0x977028…
09-27 20:15:59	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	28	91¢	$25	0xee42f4…
09-25 19:15:08	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	129	95¢	$122	0x3f8609…
09-25 19:14:50	Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	128	98¢	$125	0x132a24…
09-23 19:59:50	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	97	93¢	$90	0x7995e8…
09-23 19:59:25	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	66	70¢	$46	0x05ebac…
09-23 19:59:13	Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	67	50¢	$33	0x769bfc…
09-19 07:56:33	NATO article 5 before 2027?	Yes	BUY	121	8¢	$10	0xfe581e…
09-19 07:55:43	Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?	No	SELL	28	34¢	$10	0x38fac6…
09-18 06:12:37	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	28¢	$21	0xe1614f…
09-18 06:11:37	Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	45	46¢	$21	0x51d8d6…
09-18 05:37:07	Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	27¢	$22	0x4035a7…
09-17 20:16:31	Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?	No	BUY	11	41¢	$5	0xc2dd52…
09-17 20:15:46	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	91	5¢	$5	0x44eb31…
09-17 20:14:15	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0xe1b5a9…
09-14 10:13:21	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x4aba32…
09-14 06:33:25	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	66	61¢	$40	0x8ee7cb…
09-14 06:04:03	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	53	93¢	$50	0xc9e69d…
09-09 04:43:00	Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	65	76¢	$49	0x6be187…
09-09 04:25:55	Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30?	No	SELL	79	60¢	$47	0xd554ab…
09-08 12:39:22	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0xfc9a62…
09-08 12:23:28	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	7¢	$3	0x682147…
09-06 16:41:19	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0xde2fd2…
09-06 16:31:22	Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30?	No	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x4b5f0a…
09-06 16:30:04	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	30¢	$13	0x26f7be…
09-05 05:32:33	Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?	No	BUY	17	26¢	$4	0xa09438…
09-05 05:30:39	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x13c05b…
09-05 05:29:55	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	19	77¢	$14	0xced366…
09-04 07:39:42	Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	42	50¢	$21	0x5689a5…
09-04 07:39:06	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	25	82¢	$21	0x9bdeb6…
09-02 20:58:45	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	463	85¢	$394	0x6130a5…
09-02 20:58:22	Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	407	97¢	$394	0x966e24…
09-02 20:49:57	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	129	90¢	$116	0x2d6de2…
09-02 20:49:30	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	122	95¢	$116	0x3b1b85…
08-31 19:02:24	will russia announce a new forced mobilization by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	80	27¢	$22	0xd3dae8…
08-31 19:01:42	Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30?	No	BUY	42	47¢	$20	0xbc22ca…
08-31 19:00:24	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	43	97¢	$42	0x9cffae…
08-29 18:29:24	Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30?	No	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x64caa7…
08-29 18:28:46	Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	70	7¢	$5	0x199732…
08-22 05:10:13	will russia enter dobropillia by september 30	No	BUY	12	44¢	$5	0x788a42…
08-22 05:00:10	will russia target kyiv on august 21 2026 20260810162903056	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xac5b23…