Natural-Artificer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$75

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

30.1%

Resolved

104

Trades

123

lifetime

Volume

$7.64K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$62

Open exposure

$56

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 11-05 04:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 64 days

Categories

Sports

55% 0% -$112

Other

33% 97% +$34

Crypto

11% 100% +$3

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Politics

1% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	+23	$21	99¢	$23	+$2	07-25 08:12
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	+25	$22	74¢	$18	-$4	07-25 08:12
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in November?	No	+15	$15	97¢	$15	$0	11-05 04:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	3	$1.1K	547	547	+0	No	-$1	01-24 01:59
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	3	$1.1K	530	530	+0	No	-$1	01-12 03:12
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$1.0K	513	513	+0	No	-$1	01-08 02:05
will the carolina panthers win super bowl 2026	2	$1.0K	516	503	+13	No	$0	01-08 02:08
will the pittsburgh steelers win super bowl 2026	2	$981	502	500	+2	No	$0	01-08 02:09
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$956	480	480	+0	No	+$1	01-12 03:08
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$110	140	0	+140	Yes	-$110	07-14 05:57
Will Solana dip to $10 in May?	2	$41	22	19	+3	No	+$0	05-21 05:38
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	1	$40	70	0	+70	Yes	+$30	06-17 06:34
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May?	2	$40	21	19	+2	No	+$0	05-21 05:38
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	2	$32	17	17	+0	No	+$1	01-29 10:11
will xauusd reach 5200 in june 2026	2	$31	16	15	+1	No	+$0	06-26 06:30
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?	2	$26	14	12	+2	No	+$0	06-26 06:30
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	1	$26	26	0	+26	No	+$0	04-30 12:14
ice shooter charged by march 31	2	$26	17	17	+0	No	+$2	01-20 03:17
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	2	$23	12	11	+1	No	+$0	06-26 06:30
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	1	$22	25	0	+25	open	—	07-25 08:12
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$21	23	0	+23	open	—	07-25 08:12
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	2	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$1	01-24 01:59
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	05-13 06:42
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	1	$20	0	20	-20	No	$0	01-12 03:09
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	1	$19	19	0	+19	No	+$0	05-13 06:42
bitcoin above 62k on march 20	1	$17	17	0	+17	Yes	+$0	03-18 01:50
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 580plus	1	$16	16	0	+16	No	+$0	04-02 01:53
bitcoin above 64k on march 19	1	$16	16	0	+16	Yes	+$0	03-18 01:50
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	1	$15	15	0	+15	Yes	+$0	06-09 04:35
will bitcoin reach 100k in july 2026	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	07-25 08:11
bitcoin above 80k on march 18	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	03-18 01:50
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $94,000 on October 10?	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	10-09 05:33
will solana dip to 10 in august 2026	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	08-21 03:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 04:50:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in November?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xc5eb45…
10-09 05:33:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $94,000 on October 10?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x695eab…
09-12 02:46:24	Will Z.ai be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x55fba3…
08-21 03:31:01	will solana dip to 10 in august 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x6e6833…
08-01 07:28:59	Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xfff061…
08-01 07:28:42	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9ec378…
08-01 07:28:29	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x1eabdc…
07-25 08:12:46	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	25	89¢	$22	0x6c977a…
07-25 08:12:04	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	23	90¢	$21	0x318daa…
07-25 08:11:18	will bitcoin reach 100k in july 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x31a846…
07-14 05:57:04	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	140	79¢	$110	0x38c632…
06-26 06:34:19	bitcoin above 72k on june 29 2026	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x1e2769…
06-26 06:33:41	bitcoin above 68k on june 28 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4f7fc2…
06-26 06:33:31	bitcoin above 66k on june 27 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xb3cb0c…
06-26 06:33:22	bitcoin above 64k on june 26 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4a1f15…
06-26 06:32:55	will xrp dip to 0pt2 in june 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x525d19…
06-26 06:32:38	will ethereum reach 2400 june 22 28 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb1899b…
06-26 06:32:22	will solana dip to 20 in june 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x53bbfd…
06-26 06:32:05	will bitcoin reach 78k june 22 28 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x907a5b…
06-26 06:31:46	will ethereum reach 3000 in june 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x35e751…
06-26 06:31:29	will bitcoin reach 87pt5k in june 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xacc636…
06-26 06:30:47	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xe710cc…
06-26 06:30:40	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x929397…
06-26 06:30:29	will xauusd reach 5200 in june 2026	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x6ac3fb…
06-17 06:34:40	Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	70	57¢	$40	0x7f58aa…
06-09 04:36:37	Will SpaceX IPO on June 29, 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x060252…
06-09 04:36:09	Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xb44b8a…
06-09 04:35:52	will xauusd reach 5200 in june 2026	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xf0d5b5…
06-09 04:35:33	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x6131db…
06-09 04:35:12	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x209c5b…
06-09 04:34:33	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xb4bff4…
05-29 03:05:05	Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xa727a5…
05-29 03:04:25	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xa2670e…
05-29 03:03:29	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xdd915c…
05-21 05:42:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 24?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xf530ae…
05-21 05:42:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 23?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xe4aebf…
05-21 05:41:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22?	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x5acd13…
05-21 05:38:53	Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x0e8aef…
05-21 05:38:39	Will Solana dip to $10 in May?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x778d90…
05-13 06:43:23	Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x26353e…
05-13 06:43:07	Will Solana dip to $10 in May?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x004180…
05-13 06:42:49	Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xca19fd…
05-13 06:42:30	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x561945…
04-30 12:14:50	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x5e607b…
04-13 03:14:29	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 580plus	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xc6599b…
04-13 03:14:17	elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 580plus	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x395604…
04-13 03:14:05	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 480 499	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xfae486…
04-08 00:49:25	bitcoin above 62k on april 8	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x66ca07…
04-08 00:49:05	Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xabbdde…
04-08 00:48:49	Will Solana dip to $10 in April?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xe8f86b…
04-08 00:48:35	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x7d1de2…
04-08 00:48:19	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x1e7cf4…
04-02 01:54:15	bitcoin above 58k on april 3	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xdead40…
04-02 01:54:07	bitcoin above 74k on april 2	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x2cf8ea…
04-02 01:53:49	elon musk of tweets april 2 april 4 240plus	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x23e28a…
04-02 01:53:37	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 580plus	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x2df04d…
04-02 01:53:21	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 580plus	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xfc9a16…
04-02 01:53:07	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 360 379	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xb44815…
03-30 07:13:48	elon musk of tweets march 28 march 30 90 114	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x63c8e4…
03-30 07:13:32	will the price of bitcoin be greater than 80000 on april 1	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x9c672a…
03-30 07:13:22	will the price of bitcoin be between 76000 78000 on march 31	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf9ca56…
03-30 07:13:10	will the price of bitcoin be between 72000 74000 on march 30	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x9eeb70…
03-30 07:12:56	bitcoin above 80k on april 1	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x9e756c…
03-30 07:12:46	bitcoin above 78k on march 31	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x231edf…
03-30 07:12:36	bitcoin above 72k on march 30	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xde86af…
03-18 01:51:35	will the price of bitcoin be less than 62000 on march 20	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x51b6a2…
03-18 01:51:19	will the price of bitcoin be less than 62000 on march 19	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xa03a87…
03-18 01:51:03	will the price of bitcoin be between 64000 66000 on march 18	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xaced2f…
03-18 01:50:49	bitcoin above 62k on march 20	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x89a899…
03-18 01:50:37	bitcoin above 64k on march 19	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x6748f1…
03-18 01:50:25	bitcoin above 80k on march 18	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x01370c…
03-13 07:45:17	will the price of ethereum be greater than 2500 on march 16	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x5b5961…
03-13 07:45:09	will the price of ethereum be less than 1500 on march 14	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xebfc8f…
03-13 07:44:53	will the price of bitcoin be less than 60000 on march 16	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd0ba50…
03-13 07:44:47	will the price of bitcoin be between 62000 64000 on march 13	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb010b8…
03-13 07:44:31	ethereum above 1500 on march 16	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb785bb…
03-13 07:44:25	ethereum above 1600 on march 14	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9c55f3…
03-13 07:44:15	bitcoin above 58k on march 16	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x52c5a8…
03-13 07:44:11	bitcoin above 58k on march 14	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa6974c…
02-27 02:23:46	will the price of bitcoin be between 58000 60000 on february 27	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x5925cd…
02-27 02:23:18	ethereum above 1700 on february 27	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x442e14…
02-27 02:23:06	will bitcoin reach 80k february 23 march 1	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xf0e489…
02-27 02:22:52	bitcoin above 74k on february 27	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7926f5…
02-10 02:44:45	will the price of ethereum be between 2400 2500 on february 10	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xf7e239…
02-10 02:44:27	will bitcoin reach 84k february 9 15	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x3badad…
02-10 02:44:01	will ethereum dip to 800 in february 2026	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xe3ca72…
02-10 02:43:41	bitcoin above 76k on february 10	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8a87ea…
02-04 11:51:24	will silver si hit low 25 by end of february 859 949 933 273 811 757 923 129	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x143902…
02-04 11:51:08	will gold gc hit high 10000 by end of february	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x5a3893…
02-04 11:50:48	elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 640 659	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x0ba174…
02-04 11:50:24	elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 140 164	No	BUY	15	99¢	$14	0x5f25fc…
01-29 10:59:14	Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x618262…
01-29 10:58:42	will the price of ethereum be between 2600 2700 on january 29	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x100883…
01-29 10:58:14	will bitcoin reach 102k january 26 1	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x8841d9…
01-29 10:57:52	ethereum above 2600 on january 29	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc84dab…
01-29 10:57:26	Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	12	88¢	$11	0xc87d1f…
01-29 10:11:18	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	No	SELL	17	99¢	$16	0x067434…
01-24 02:12:38	will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in less than 1 hour	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x91f2ad…
01-24 02:12:18	elon musk of tweets january 22 january 24 240plus	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x60b057…
01-24 02:12:00	elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 680 699	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x076a35…