Failing-Boudoir — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

94.8%

Resolved

Trades

233

lifetime

Volume

$9.09K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$39

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-18

last 06-22 09:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

74% 100% +$1

Politics

23% 50% +$2

Crypto

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	Yes		+20	$1	6¢	$1	$-0	06-22 09:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	7	$355	398	398	+0	open	—	05-08 19:40
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	4	$346	176	176	+0	open	—	04-25 03:54
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	6	$330	176	176	+0	open	—	04-26 14:07
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	5	$326	165	165	+0	open	—	05-07 01:16
will phan vn giang be the next president of vietnam	7	$309	235	235	+0	open	—	03-28 04:13
will justin rose win the 2026 masters tournament	9	$302	349	349	+0	open	—	04-11 15:05
will trn cm t be the next president of vietnam	7	$298	151	151	+0	open	—	03-19 16:55
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	7	$232	256	256	+0	open	—	04-24 17:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	4	$179	175	175	+0	No	+$2	05-08 14:00
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026?	2	$178	90	90	+0	open	—	04-21 22:14
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	2	$174	88	88	+0	open	—	04-29 15:48
us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	2	$173	87	87	+0	open	—	04-14 01:33
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	2	$172	91	91	+0	open	—	05-12 16:01
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	5	$172	267	267	+0	open	—	03-25 03:40
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	2	$170	87	87	+0	open	—	04-27 10:41
will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 0 3	2	$165	89	89	+0	open	—	04-11 10:26
will viktor hovland win the 2026 masters tournament	7	$164	286	286	+0	open	—	04-09 15:47
will brooks koepka win the 2026 masters tournament	4	$163	180	180	+0	open	—	04-06 14:32
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026?	2	$162	82	82	+0	open	—	04-22 03:00
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	3	$160	82	82	+0	open	—	04-22 21:18
will ethereum dip to 1400 in march 2026	2	$160	81	81	+0	open	—	03-24 08:29
will crude oil cl hit low 70 by end of march 122 549 218 531 991 459	2	$160	83	83	+0	open	—	03-24 01:23
will sam burns win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$159	84	84	+0	open	—	04-10 19:00
will trn thanh mn be the next president of vietnam	4	$159	161	161	+0	open	—	03-19 22:01
will anish giri win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	2	$158	81	81	+0	open	—	04-10 00:48
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	3	$157	85	85	+0	open	—	04-23 11:45
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	3	$157	84	84	+0	open	—	04-18 23:16
will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	2	$156	81	81	+0	open	—	04-12 07:34
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 15	3	$156	82	82	+0	open	—	04-13 14:00
Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?	4	$156	79	79	+0	open	—	04-20 05:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 09:27:32	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x00a951…
06-22 04:28:17	will russia capture all of drobysheve by july 31	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x9eed8f…
05-19 05:23:56	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Yes	BUY	79	95¢	$75	0xbc02ad…
05-18 22:25:13	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	9	4¢	$0	0xc66e0a…
05-18 22:25:13	Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	No	BUY	32	4¢	$1	0xa3530c…
05-13 14:47:41	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xab5e32…
05-13 14:47:41	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	38	99¢	$37	0x954217…
05-12 16:01:59	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	91	95¢	$86	0x029a70…
05-12 14:07:13	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	91	95¢	$86	0xf7f9df…
05-12 01:38:29	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	3¢	$0	0x21e21b…
05-12 01:37:05	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	139	3¢	$4	0xe44217…
05-12 01:28:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	148	3¢	$4	0x0f2b7b…
05-11 12:48:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	176	3¢	$6	0xb164f0…
05-11 10:04:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	4¢	$2	0xffd059…
05-11 10:04:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	114	4¢	$4	0x73433b…
05-09 10:11:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	3¢	$1	0xec5551…
05-09 10:11:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	111	3¢	$4	0x45a3d3…
05-09 08:02:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	69	4¢	$2	0xe1d5c3…
05-09 08:02:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	4¢	$1	0x9af972…
05-09 08:02:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	3¢	$2	0x1a6e45…
05-08 19:40:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	130	2¢	$3	0xb74048…
05-08 19:40:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	86	2¢	$2	0x5877f8…
05-08 18:27:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	216	2¢	$5	0xe7b7a7…
05-08 14:00:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	89	98¢	$87	0x35cfae…
05-08 12:29:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	89	97¢	$86	0x9010da…
05-08 09:22:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	90	96¢	$87	0x20b9c9…
05-08 06:42:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	90	97¢	$87	0x65f7b2…
05-07 22:26:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	86	4¢	$3	0xeb84fb…
05-07 19:37:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	86	3¢	$2	0xfafbd2…
05-07 08:01:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	92	93¢	$86	0xe024af…
05-07 08:00:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	92	93¢	$85	0x8e225a…
05-07 01:16:32	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	35	99¢	$35	0xc66aa9…
05-07 01:16:32	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	43	99¢	$43	0x345d67…
05-06 21:09:02	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	78	99¢	$77	0xeb9753…
05-06 18:01:13	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	87	98¢	$86	0xe81567…
05-06 16:42:25	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	87	99¢	$86	0x472731…
05-06 06:35:20	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	174	3¢	$5	0xdb6cf5…
05-06 05:02:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	174	3¢	$5	0xe9fd4b…
05-01 08:52:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0xa5c31d…
05-01 08:52:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	50	95¢	$48	0x164507…
05-01 08:52:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0x017667…
05-01 05:36:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	34	94¢	$32	0x66360a…
05-01 05:36:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	47	94¢	$44	0x1ff649…
04-30 20:40:56	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0x521c2f…
04-30 19:38:10	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x8440f9…
04-30 09:00:40	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	SELL	22	1¢	$0	0xe36f6a…
04-30 09:00:00	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	SELL	77	1¢	$1	0xc40c30…
04-30 09:00:00	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0xc024bc…
04-30 09:00:00	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	SELL	59	1¢	$1	0xa747b4…
04-30 09:00:00	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0x43d4a1…
04-30 09:00:00	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	SELL	68	1¢	$1	0x01892d…
04-30 07:46:30	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	271	2¢	$4	0x00d937…
04-29 15:48:52	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	SELL	88	99¢	$87	0xc6708a…
04-29 14:14:06	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	BUY	88	99¢	$87	0xf13a9b…
04-27 20:41:30	Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	171	3¢	$6	0x967181…
04-27 18:44:42	Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	2¢	$1	0xa79265…
04-27 18:44:42	Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	2¢	$3	0x33a359…
04-27 10:41:18	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	No	SELL	87	98¢	$85	0x59cba1…
04-27 08:06:30	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	No	BUY	87	97¢	$85	0xba1e38…
04-26 14:07:32	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	46	98¢	$45	0xfe6c67…
04-26 14:07:32	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xb3473a…
04-26 14:07:32	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	28	98¢	$27	0x1340c7…
04-26 12:01:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	79	98¢	$77	0xa89f9e…
04-26 08:30:30	Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xbd2090…
04-26 08:30:30	Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	48	99¢	$47	0x685fe6…
04-26 03:39:02	Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	78	99¢	$77	0xafda9b…
04-25 22:39:28	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	145	4¢	$6	0x801c4d…
04-25 20:56:40	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	99	4¢	$4	0x161afc…
04-25 20:56:40	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	46	4¢	$2	0x08a8ff…
04-25 03:54:38	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	85	99¢	$84	0xd159a3…
04-25 01:59:46	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	85	99¢	$84	0xc5504a…
04-24 17:08:58	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	78	99¢	$77	0x38f178…
04-24 14:09:02	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	78	99¢	$77	0x1a895a…
04-24 09:31:48	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	SELL	49	6¢	$3	0x1d31bd…
04-24 09:29:44	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	BUY	49	6¢	$3	0x31b185…
04-23 21:10:18	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	79	98¢	$77	0x8b2984…
04-23 17:06:50	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	79	98¢	$78	0xa0e6ea…
04-23 11:45:00	Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	45	91¢	$41	0xe6f5ae…
04-23 11:45:00	Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	40	91¢	$36	0x80df91…
04-23 08:35:32	Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	85	94¢	$80	0xc6af50…
04-22 21:18:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0xeb9450…
04-22 21:18:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	No	SELL	52	97¢	$51	0x708b1b…
04-22 17:14:56	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 24 2026	No	BUY	82	98¢	$80	0x50f962…
04-22 15:00:26	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	91	98¢	$89	0x5ea572…
04-22 13:43:38	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	91	98¢	$89	0x6c1664…
04-22 03:00:08	Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	82	99¢	$81	0xb3a0d7…
04-22 01:37:02	Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	82	99¢	$81	0x3991ee…
04-21 22:14:42	Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026?	No	SELL	90	99¢	$89	0xc6d14c…
04-21 20:09:56	Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026?	No	BUY	90	99¢	$89	0xa99781…
04-21 06:42:16	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	SELL	97	92¢	$89	0x96bbd1…
04-21 05:01:32	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	97	89¢	$86	0x0ecd0c…
04-20 05:21:20	Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0xf038b7…
04-20 05:21:20	Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	57	99¢	$56	0xd53bb2…
04-20 01:51:52	Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	55	99¢	$54	0xcb4181…
04-20 01:51:52	Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xb9d889…
04-18 23:16:02	Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	No	SELL	20	93¢	$18	0x26e6f0…
04-18 23:16:02	Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	No	SELL	64	93¢	$60	0x101aaa…
04-18 18:46:34	Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	No	BUY	84	94¢	$79	0x710b0f…
04-16 08:49:26	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	SELL	140	1¢	$2	0xac52cd…
04-16 06:48:16	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	BUY	65	1¢	$1	0x2014a5…