Ill-Fated-Alien — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.88K

Unrealized P&L

+$903

Hit rate

85.7%

Resolved

135

Trades

1,325

lifetime

Volume

$56.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$42

Open exposure

$4.90K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-31 18:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 56 days

Categories

Other

90% 86% +$3,592

Politics

7% 82% +$159

Sports

3% 71% +$95

Crypto

1% 83% +$30

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

67 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	+2,643	$2,104	78¢	$2.1K	-$42	10-30 02:01
will russia capture orikhiv by december 31 2026	No	+1,689	$940	92¢	$1.6K	+$614	10-30 15:11
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,380	$910	90¢	$1.2K	+$325	10-01 18:43
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	No	+100	$63	48¢	$48	-$14	10-08 10:42
will ukraine re enter myrnohrad by december 31	No	+0	-$21	96¢	$0	+$21	07-26 09:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will russia capture orikhiv by december 31 2026	75	$4.3K	3,551	1,861	+1,689	open	—	10-30 15:11
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	22	$2.8K	2,814	757	+2,057	Yes	+$598	08-13 09:18
will russia enter stavky by september 30	45	$2.7K	2,850	737	+2,114	No	+$627	09-30 08:18
will russia enter malokaterynivka by december 31 2026	35	$2.5K	1,771	1,139	+631	Yes	-$326	09-27 02:38
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by October 31?	13	$2.4K	2,608	55	+2,554	open	—	10-31 18:19
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	32	$2.1K	2,643	0	+2,643	open	—	10-30 02:01
will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1	18	$1.4K	1,088	1,088	+0	Yes	+$127	07-30 11:52
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	14	$1.4K	1,087	1,087	+0	Yes	+$50	10-31 07:30
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	29	$1.2K	1,580	200	+1,380	open	—	10-01 18:43
Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	11	$1.2K	658	658	+0	Yes	+$115	10-31 07:30
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?	5	$1.1K	635	635	+0	open	—	10-24 08:32
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by May 31, 2026?	16	$1.0K	766	414	+352	No	+$149	05-26 19:54
will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	257	$1.0K	810	810	+0	No	+$12	07-12 07:38
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30?	9	$983	1,150	0	+1,150	No	+$166	06-27 07:11
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?	6	$839	515	410	+105	No	+$69	07-22 06:31
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?	8	$808	0	835	-835	No	-$27	06-15 10:06
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	4	$805	900	0	+900	Yes	+$95	08-14 10:59
Will Jordan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	11	$696	670	150	+520	Yes	+$91	06-23 03:36
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?	19	$670	129	560	-431	No	+$1	06-25 04:52
will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	8	$666	936	0	+936	Yes	+$270	07-22 21:11
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by March 31, 2027?	5	$664	500	500	+0	open	—	10-17 07:34
will russia enter serhiivka by july 31	7	$626	630	100	+530	No	+$92	07-27 19:56
will russia capture havrylivka by september 30 2026	12	$623	341	341	+0	No	+$39	08-31 20:29
will russia enter svitle by september 30	10	$610	500	500	+0	Yes	+$250	07-23 21:27
Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31?	11	$564	475	180	+295	No	+$87	05-29 15:34
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by December 31, 2026?	3	$554	625	110	+515	open	—	10-06 08:06
will russia enter shevchenko by september 30	11	$539	701	50	+651	Yes	+$191	07-11 10:28
Will Russia enter Khatnie by May 31, 2026?	12	$520	602	0	+602	No	+$82	05-26 15:20
will russia enter borova by june 30	36	$512	579	0	+579	No	+$67	06-24 03:56
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	7	$509	400	400	+0	Yes	-$79	09-27 02:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 18:19:25	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by October 31?	No	BUY	98	96¢	$94	0x80d39f…
10-31 18:18:22	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0xe76abf…
10-31 07:31:03	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by October 31?	No	BUY	725	96¢	$693	0xe9f03b…
10-31 07:30:24	Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	99¢	$49	0x4bd1d9…
10-31 07:30:10	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	SELL	188	98¢	$184	0x35e18a…
10-31 07:29:43	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	SELL	211	98¢	$207	0xb43b0e…
10-31 07:29:30	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	SELL	229	98¢	$224	0xad47e4…
10-31 07:29:15	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0x88d57a…
10-30 15:11:45	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	BUY	190	82¢	$156	0x42f5e7…
10-30 15:11:27	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	BUY	180	80¢	$144	0xc20e56…
10-30 15:11:09	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	325	91¢	$296	0x22b699…
10-30 15:08:43	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	BUY	70	80¢	$56	0x414d48…
10-30 15:07:37	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	BUY	59	80¢	$47	0x2455e7…
10-30 15:06:54	Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x982d74…
10-30 15:06:12	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	BUY	59	80¢	$47	0xcea145…
10-30 15:06:07	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0x8c899b…
10-30 15:06:01	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	BUY	60	79¢	$47	0x26741f…
10-30 15:05:48	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	99	97¢	$96	0x40ea46…
10-30 08:41:24	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by October 31?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$189	0x1ca360…
10-30 08:40:43	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by October 31?	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x8437e5…
10-30 08:40:37	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by October 31?	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x6be720…
10-30 08:40:31	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by October 31?	No	BUY	35	94¢	$33	0x6b490f…
10-30 08:39:55	Will Russia enter Moskovka by October 31?	No	BUY	75	95¢	$71	0x8953c3…
10-30 08:39:42	Will Russia enter Moskovka by October 31?	No	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0xa87465…
10-30 08:39:18	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	496	91¢	$452	0xa7f1b3…
10-30 02:01:00	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	75	80¢	$60	0x7cf56e…
10-29 19:46:46	will russia capture dobropillia by november 30 2026	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x5ded17…
10-29 19:15:07	Will Russia enter Moskovka by October 31?	No	BUY	31	94¢	$29	0xc7edfa…
10-29 19:08:43	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by October 31?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0xe0452c…
10-29 17:27:05	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0xa76687…
10-29 10:32:26	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by October 31?	No	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0x97a0c5…
10-29 10:15:59	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by October 31?	No	BUY	325	95¢	$308	0xbdc13c…
10-29 10:14:52	Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	84	98¢	$83	0x070178…
10-29 10:14:17	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	224	100¢	$223	0x7b9327…
10-28 20:24:10	Will Russia enter Stavky by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x3d692d…
10-27 15:16:03	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	262	78¢	$204	0xda7815…
10-27 02:00:14	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xf1b941…
10-26 08:03:53	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	350	91¢	$318	0x00fc3d…
10-26 08:03:42	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	117	92¢	$108	0x3678ae…
10-25 23:49:38	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0xbd6953…
10-25 23:31:44	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	187	91¢	$170	0x29b5d8…
10-25 21:31:06	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0xb46815…
10-25 16:01:23	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	33	91¢	$30	0xedddea…
10-24 23:11:36	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	91¢	$27	0xd61274…
10-24 19:05:36	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	42	77¢	$32	0x683e72…
10-24 19:05:36	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	48	77¢	$37	0x0b0dc1…
10-24 19:05:35	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xd3a623…
10-24 08:32:02	Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	90¢	$180	0x3b0068…
10-24 04:31:53	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0xd15aba…
10-24 02:11:33	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0x76f22e…
10-24 02:10:38	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0x218b73…
10-24 02:10:36	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	77¢	$47	0xb90c86…
10-23 21:09:17	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	133	78¢	$104	0x3a8de7…
10-23 21:08:48	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	263	90¢	$237	0x2fd337…
10-23 19:04:20	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	380	78¢	$296	0x044596…
10-23 19:03:27	Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	300	90¢	$270	0x42545c…
10-23 19:02:24	Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	90¢	$27	0xcf89b1…
10-23 16:39:33	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	150	81¢	$122	0xe7318a…
10-23 13:35:42	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x8580e0…
10-23 11:02:41	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	81¢	$0	0xfb35c4…
10-23 10:13:33	Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	135	91¢	$123	0x762c07…
10-23 09:31:02	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x54d10c…
10-23 09:30:44	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	79	81¢	$64	0x59df73…
10-23 06:57:08	Will Russia enter Bilozerske by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	42	80¢	$34	0x7d0df3…
10-23 06:57:05	Will Russia enter Bilozerske by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	64	85¢	$55	0xb0dee3…
10-23 00:01:51	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	81¢	$17	0x3f0cee…
10-22 22:53:35	Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0xd6e5ec…
10-22 21:24:03	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	81¢	$9	0x57eada…
10-22 04:08:11	Will Russia enter Bilozerske by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	18	85¢	$15	0x488933…
10-22 04:08:09	Will Russia enter Bilozerske by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	18	85¢	$15	0x21bbb2…
10-21 14:07:48	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by October 31?	No	BUY	427	92¢	$392	0x27f03d…
10-21 00:57:44	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x84c3f0…
10-21 00:57:44	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	160	81¢	$130	0x410247…
10-20 20:13:21	Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	No	SELL	224	64¢	$143	0xd5369b…
10-20 15:57:30	Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	No	SELL	627	67¢	$420	0x966376…
10-20 11:04:26	Will Russia capture Havrylivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	137	94¢	$129	0xa90f3f…
10-20 06:03:44	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x5f87ff…
10-18 23:33:24	Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	No	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x699abc…
10-18 13:30:21	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by October 31?	No	SELL	25	95¢	$23	0xde917c…
10-17 12:08:09	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0x4a7cdc…
10-17 11:28:00	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	93	82¢	$76	0xe8728b…
10-17 10:41:14	Will Russia enter Havrylivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x5a1b44…
10-17 07:34:17	Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	200	78¢	$156	0x5a8701…
10-17 07:34:15	Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	200	77¢	$154	0x24d642…
10-16 19:11:59	Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	400	76¢	$304	0x03f52c…
10-16 16:03:54	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x0fd542…
10-14 04:15:08	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x4a1af1…
10-13 20:26:34	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xa9af68…
10-13 16:55:25	will russia enter bilozerske by december 31 2026	No	BUY	432	61¢	$264	0x9f6c74…
10-13 11:41:38	will russia enter bilozerske by november 30 2026	No	BUY	294	76¢	$222	0xd664fe…
10-11 13:16:01	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	Team Yandex	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x589b0f…
10-10 06:49:07	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	SELL	56	69¢	$39	0x41790e…
10-10 02:30:17	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	SELL	170	75¢	$127	0x965775…
10-09 15:43:46	Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	No	BUY	751	61¢	$458	0xa38334…
10-09 15:15:18	Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	25¢	$25	0x5988c7…
10-09 13:49:42	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x11ebfb…
10-09 13:46:49	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	126	69¢	$87	0xb1358c…
10-09 13:19:36	Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	39¢	$4	0x01d0b7…
10-08 23:03:44	Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	85¢	$22	0xb2890c…
10-08 23:03:42	Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	74	85¢	$63	0x83d510…